2026年5月全球传染病事件风险评估

Risk assessment of global infectious disease events in May 2026

  • 摘要:
    目的 对2026年5月境外发生的全球传染病事件进行监测,并评估对我国的输入风险和海外旅行风险。
    方法 运用多种来源的互联网开源情报信息,对重点关注传染病开展基于事件的监测,并采用风险矩阵法,从传播可能性和后果严重性两个维度,整合疾病、国家和事件特异性指标构建指标体系,对传染病境外输入风险和海外旅行风险开展评估。
    结果 2026年5月监测到15种传染病在全球38个国家或地区形成突发事件或暴发疫情。 对我国的输入风险方面,高风险事件3个,中风险事件18个;海外旅行风险方面,高风险事件5个,中风险事件27个。
    结论 输入风险方面,建议重点关注刚果民主共和国、乌干达的埃博拉病毒病疫情,越南的登革热疫情,一般关注特定国家的白喉、登革热、黄热病、霍乱、基孔肯雅热、克里米亚–刚果出血热、麻疹、诺如病毒急性肠胃炎、西尼罗病毒病、寨卡病毒病。 海外旅行风险方面,建议重点关注刚果民主共和国、乌干达埃博拉病毒病疫情,毛里塔尼亚的白喉疫情,布隆迪的霍乱疫情,危地马拉的麻疹疫情。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To detect global infectious disease events occurring outside China in May 2026 and assess the importation risk to China and international travel risk.
    Methods Utilizing open-source intelligence on the internet, this study conducts event-based surveillance of priority infectious diseases and adopts the risk matrix methodology to build an indicator system by integrating disease-, country- and event-specific indicators in terms of transmission likelihood and severity of consequences in order to assess the risk of the importation and the risk of international travel.
    Results In May 2026, 15 infectious diseases were detected to form events or outbreaks in 38 countries worldwide. In terms of importation risk to China, there is 3 high-risk events and 18 medium-risk events; in terms of international travel risk, there are 5 high-risk events and 27 medium-risk events.
    Conclusion For importation risk, it is recommended to pay close attention to the Ebola virus disease outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda, dengue fever outbreak in Vietnam, and pay general attention to diphtheria, dengue fever, yellow fever, cholera, chikungunya, Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever, measles, Norovirus infection, West Nile fever, Zika virus disease in specific countries. For international travel risk, it is recommended to pay close attention to the Ebola virus disease outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda, diphtheria in Mauritania, cholera in Burundi, and measles outbreaks in Guatemala.

     

/

返回文章
返回