2026年6月全球传染病事件风险评估

Risk assessment of global infectious disease events in June 2026

  • 摘要:
    目的 对2026年6月中国境外发生的全球传染病事件进行监测,并评估对我国的输入风险和海外旅行风险。
    方法 运用多种来源的互联网开源情报信息,对重点关注传染病开展基于事件的监测,并采用风险矩阵法,从传播可能性和后果严重性两个维度,整合疾病、国家和地区和事件特异性指标构建指标体系,对传染病境外输入风险和海外旅行风险开展评估。
    结果 2026年6月监测到19种传染病在全球44个国家或地区形成突发事件或暴发疫情。对我国的输入风险方面,高风险事件5个,中风险事件27个;海外旅行风险方面,高风险事件9个,中风险事件35个。
    结论 输入风险方面,建议重点关注刚果民主共和国、乌干达埃博拉病毒病疫情,马来西亚、越南的登革热疫情,日本的发热伴血小板减少综合征疫情,一般关注特定国家的白喉、登革热、黄热病、霍乱、基孔肯雅热、麻疹、西尼罗病毒病、马尔堡出血热。海外旅行风险方面,建议重点关注刚果民主共和国、乌干达埃博拉病毒病疫情,海地的白喉疫情,洪都拉斯、墨西哥、马尔代夫、马来西亚、越南的登革热疫情,孟加拉国的麻疹疫情。

     

    Abstract:
    Objectives To detect global infectious disease events occurring outside China in June 2026 and assess the importation risk to China and international travel risk.
    Methods Utilizing open-source intelligence on the internet, this study conducts event-based surveillance of priority infectious diseases and adopts the risk matrix methodology to build an indicator system by integrating disease-, country- and event-specific indicators in terms of transmission likelihood and severity of consequences in order to assess the risk of the importation and the risk of international travel.
    Results In June 2026, 19 infectious diseases were detected to form events or outbreaks in 44 countries worldwide. In terms of importation risk to China, there are 5 high-risk events and 27 medium-risk events; in terms of international travel risk, there are 9 high-risk events and 35 medium-risk events.
    Conclusion For importation risk, it is recommended to pay close attention to the Ebola virus disease outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda, dengue fever outbreaks in Malaysia and Vietnam, severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS) cases in Japan, and pay general attention to diphtheria, dengue fever, yellow fever, cholera, chikungunya, measles, West Nile fever and Marburg virus disease in specific countries. For international travel risk, it is recommended to pay close attention to the Ebola virus disease outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda, diphtheria outbreak in Haiti, dengue fever outbreaks in Honduras, Mexico, Maldives, Malaysia and Vietnam, and measles outbreak in Bangladesh.

     

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