2026年7月全球传染病事件风险评估

Risk assessment of global infectious disease events in July 2026

  • 摘要:
    目的 对2026年7月中国境外发生的全球传染病事件进行监测,并评估对我国的输入风险和海外旅行风险。
    方法 运用多种来源的互联网开源情报信息,对重点关注传染病开展基于事件的监测,并采用风险矩阵法,从传播可能性和后果严重性两个维度,整合疾病、国家和地区和事件特异性指标构建指标体系,对传染病境外输入风险和海外旅行风险开展评估。
    结果 2026年7月监测到15种传染病在全球40个国家或地区形成突发事件或暴发疫情。对我国的输入风险方面,高风险事件6个,中风险事件23个;海外旅行风险方面,高风险事件11个,中风险事件15个。
    结论 输入风险方面,建议重点关注马来西亚、泰国、柬埔寨、老挝、孟加拉国、斯里兰卡的登革热疫情,一般关注特定国家或地区的登革热、霍乱、基孔肯雅热、麻疹、鼠疫、西尼罗病毒病、寨卡病毒病疫情。海外旅行风险方面,建议重点关注苏丹、柬埔寨、孟加拉国、斯里兰卡的登革热疫情,中非共和国、尼日利亚、苏丹、喀麦隆的霍乱疫情,马尔代夫、孟加拉国、刚果民主共和国的麻疹疫情;一般关注特定国家的埃博拉、白喉、登革热、基孔肯雅热、麻疹、鼠疫、西尼罗病毒病疫情。

     

    Abstract:
    Objectives To detect global infectious disease events occurring outside China in July 2026 and assess the importation risk to China and international travel risk.
    Methods Utilizing open-source intelligence on the internet, this study conducts event-based surveillance of priority infectious diseases and adopts the risk matrix methodology to build an indicator system by integrating disease-, country- and event-specific indicators in terms of transmission likelihood and severity of consequences in order to assess the risk of the importation and the risk of international travel.
    Results In July 2026, 15 infectious diseases were detected to form events or outbreaks in 40 countries or regions worldwide. In terms of importation risk to China, there are 6 high-risk events and 23 medium-risk events; in terms of international travel risk, there are 11 high-risk events and 15 medium-risk events.
    Conclusion For importation risk, it is recommended to pay close attention to the dengue fever outbreaks in Malaysia, Thailand, Cambodia, Laos, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka, and pay general attention to dengue fever, cholera, chikungunya, measles, plague, West Nile fever, and Zika virus disease in specific countries or regions. For international travel risk, it is recommended to pay close attention to the dengue fever outbreaks in Sudan, Cambodia, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka, the cholera outbreaks in the Central African Republic, Nigeria, Sudan, and Cameroon, and the measles outbreak in Maldives, Bangladesh, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and pay general attention to Ebola virus disease, diphtheria, dengue fever, chikungunya, measles, plague, and West Nile fever in specific countries.

     

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