2026年9月全球传染病事件风险评估

Risk assessment of global infectious disease events in September 2026

  • 摘要:
    目的 对2026年9月中国境外发生的全球传染病事件进行监测,并评估对我国的输入风险和海外旅行风险。
    方法 运用多种来源的互联网开源情报信息,对重点关注传染病开展基于事件的监测,并采用风险矩阵法,从传播可能性和后果严重性两个维度,整合疾病、国家和事件特异性指标构建指标体系,对传染病境外输入风险和海外旅行风险开展评估。
    结果 2026年9月监测到15种传染病在全球71个国家和地区形成突发事件或暴发疫情。对我国的输入风险方面,高风险事件1个,中风险事件37个;海外旅行风险方面,高风险事件5个,中风险事件47个。
    结论 输入风险方面,建议重点关注巴西的基孔肯雅热疫情;一般关注巴基斯坦、巴西、厄瓜多尔、法国、菲律宾、哥伦比亚、肯尼亚、马来西亚、美国、孟加拉国、秘鲁、墨西哥、斯里兰卡、意大利、印度、越南、中国台湾地区的登革热疫情,阿根廷、巴基斯坦、玻利维亚、法国、法属圭亚那、哥斯达黎加、洪都拉斯、尼加拉瓜、中国澳门特别行政区、中国台湾地区、中国香港特别行政区的基孔肯雅热疫情,巴基斯坦、刚果民主共和国、喀麦隆、缅甸、莫桑比克、尼日利亚、赞比亚的霍乱疫情,法国的白喉疫情,刚果民主共和国的埃博拉病毒病疫情。海外旅行风险方面,建议重点关注巴西、马来西亚、秘鲁的登革热疫情,巴西的基孔肯雅热疫情,尼日利亚的霍乱疫情;一般关注阿根廷、巴拿马、古巴、哥斯达黎加、洪都拉斯、马绍尔群岛、萨尔瓦多、瓦努阿图的登革热疫情,苏丹、也门、乍得的霍乱疫情,摩洛哥、尼日利亚、塞内加尔的白喉疫情,利比里亚的拉沙热疫情,加纳的黄热病疫情,其余31个一般关注事件与输入风险一般关注名单一致。

     

    Abstract:
    Objectives To detect global infectious disease events occurring outside China in September 2026 and assess the importation risk to China and international travel risk.
    Methods Utilizing open-source intelligence on the internet, this study conducts event-based surveillance of priority infectious diseases and adopts the risk matrix methodology to build an indicator system by integrating disease-, country- and event-specific indicators in terms of transmission likelihood and severity of consequences in order to assess the risk of the importation and the risk of international travel.
    Results In September 2026, 15 infectious diseases were detected to form events or outbreaks in 71 countries or regions worldwide. In terms of importation risk to China, there were 1 high-risk event, 37 medium-risk events; in terms of international travel risk, there were 5 high-risk events, 47 medium-risk events.
    Conclusion  For importation risk, it is recommended to pay close attention to the chikungunya outbreak in Brazil, and pay general attention to dengue in Pakistan, Brazil, Ecuador, France, the Philippines, Colombia, Kenya, Malaysia, the United States, Bangladesh, Peru, Mexico, Sri Lanka, Italy, India, Vietnam and Taiwan, China; chikungunya in Argentina, Pakistan, Bolivia, France, French Guiana, Costa Rica, Honduras, Nicaragua, Macao SAR, China, Taiwan, China and Hong Kong SAR, China; cholera in Pakistan, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Cameroon, Myanmar, Mozambique, Nigeria and Zambia; diphtheria in France; and Ebola virus disease in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. For international travel risk, it is recommended to pay close attention to dengue in Brazil, Malaysia and Peru, chikungunya in Brazil, and cholera in Nigeria, and pay general attention to dengue in Argentina, Panama, Cuba, Costa Rica, Honduras, the Marshall Islands, El Salvador and Vanuatu; cholera in Sudan, Yemen and Chad; diphtheria in Morocco, Nigeria and Senegal; Lassa fever in Liberia; and yellow fever in Ghana. The remaining 31 events of general attention are the same as those listed under importation risk.

     

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