2015-2024年陕西省65岁及以上老年人肺结核流行趋势及空间分布特征

Epidemiological characteristics and spatiotemporal distribution of pulmonary tuberculosis in the elderly aged ≥65 years in Shaanxi, 2015 - 2024

  • 摘要:
    目的 分析2015-2024年陕西省≥65岁老年人肺结核流行趋势与时空分布特征,为完善重点人群防控策略提供参考依据。
    方法 利用中国疾病预防控制信息系统结核病子系统收集2015-2024年陕西省≥65岁老年人肺结核报告数据。应用Joinpoint 5.4.0软件进行流行趋势分析,以县(区)为单位应用ArcGIS 10.8软件进行全局空间自相关和热点分析,应用SaTScan 10.0软件进行时空扫描分析。
    结果  2015-2024年陕西省≥65岁老年人肺结核报告发病率由118.75/10万下降至86.89/10万,平均年变化百分比为-4.86%,报告发病率下降趋势差异有统计学意义(t= -5.105,P<0.001)。各年度Moran's I值为0.22~0.34(均P<0.001),呈空间聚集性分布。全省热点区域主要分布在榆林市、延安市、安康市,且有非常明显的聚集趋势。2015-2024年陕西省发现44个时空聚集区(均P<0.001),主要分布于榆林市和延安市(2015-2019年)、安康市(2015-2018年)。
    结论 2015-2024年陕西省≥65岁老年人肺结核报告发病率总体呈下降趋势,疫情存在明显的时空聚集性,且热点地区与时空聚集区高度吻合,主要分布在陕北和陕南的部分地区,提示应对老年人肺结核高发病聚集区域制定针对性的防控措施。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective Analyzed the epidemiological characteristics and spatiotemporal distribution of pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) in the elderly aged≥65 years in Shaanxi Province from 2015 to 2024, and provide evidence for the development of targeted prevention and control strategies for key populations.
    Methods Data on reported pulmonary TB among individuals aged ≥65 years in Shaanxi from 2015 to 2024 were collected from the Tuberculosis Information Management System of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Software Joinpoint 5.4.0 was used for trend analysis. Global spatial autocorrelation and hotspot analysis were performed at the county (district) level by using software ArcGIS 10.8. Spatiotemporal scanning analysis was conducted by using software SaTScan 10.0.
    Results The reported incidence rate of pulmonary TB in the elderly ≥65 years in Shaanxi decreased from 118.75/100 000 in 2015 to 86.89/100 000 in 2024, with an average annual percentage change of −4.86%. The downward trend in the reported incidence rate was significant (t=−5.105, P<0.001). The annual Moran's I values ranged from 0.22 to 0.34 (all P < 0.001), indicating a spatially clustered distribution. Hotspot areas were mainly identified in Yulin, Yan'an, and Ankang, showing a significant clustering trend. From 2015 to 2024, a total of 44 spatiotemporal clustering areas) were detected in Shaanxi (all P<0.001, mainly distributed in Yulin and Yan'an during 2015−2019 and Ankang during 2015−2018.
    Conclusion The reported incidence rate of pulmonary TB in the elderly aged ≥65 years in Shaanxi showed an overall downward trend from 2015 to 2024. The incidence exhibited significant spatiotemporal clustering, with hotspot areas and spatiotemporal clustering areas being highly consistent, mainly distributed in some counties (districts) of northern and southern Shaanxi. This suggests that targeted prevention and control measures should be developed for the elderly population in high-incidence clustering areas.

     

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