Incidence trends of major infectious diseases in ASEAN countries bordering with China from 2012 to 2021

Objective To understand the epidemic status and incidence trends of major infectious diseases, such as acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS), tuberculosis(TB), dengue fever, and malaria in ASEAN countries bordering with China, and provide evidence for the prevention of cross-border transmissions of these diseases.

Methods The data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021, and the case umber and age-standardized incidence of diseases were used to describe the incidences of the diseases, and the trends of the disease incidences from 2012–2021 were analyzed by calculating the estimated annual percentage change(EAPC). The risks for cross-border transmissions of infectious diseases were evaluated by comparson with the incidence in China.

Results The age-standardized incidences of TB were higher in Myanmar, Laos and Vietnam compared with China and global levels, but the EAPC for TB in the three countries was −3.79 95% condidence interval (CI): −5.45, −2.10, −4.31 (95%CI:−4.70, −3.92), and −1.76 (95%CI:−2.83, -0.69), respectively, suggesting significant downward trends in the disease incidences. The EAPC for dengue fever in China and Vietnam was 12.2 (95%CI:11.0, 13.5) and 3.41 (95%CI:2.70, 4.12) during 2012–2021, showing a significant upward trend in disease incidence.

Conclusion China is at risk for the importations of AIDS, TB, dengue fever and malaria from ASEAN countries. It is necessary to strengthen the surveillance for infectious diseases at the border areas to prevent the disease transmission into China.