Epidemiological characteristics, incidence trend and retrospective incidence prediction of other infectious diarrheal diseases in Qingyuan, Guangdong, 2015−2024

Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and incidence trend of other infectious diarrheal diseases in Qingyuan, Guangdong province, from 2015 to 2024 and provide evidence for prevention and control of other infectious diarrheal diseases.

Methods The incidence data of other infectious diarrheal diseases in Qingyuan from 2015 to 2025 were collected from China Disease Prevention and Control Information System. The temporal, area, and population distributions of the diseases were described. Joinpoint regression model was applied to analyze the long-term trend of annual incidence rates during 2015−2024, and a SARIMA model was constructed by using monthly incidence data from 2015 to 2024 for the retrospective prediction the monthly incidence rates for 2025, and the predicated incidence was compared with the actual incidence.

Results From 2015 to 2024, a total of 98,529 cases of other infectious diarrheal diseases were reported in Qingyuan, with an average annual incidence rate of 251.91 per 100,000. Most cases were home-cared children (45.71%) and children aged <5 years (51.79%). The incidence peak occurred during winter-spring (from November to March). Joinpoint regression analysis indicated a change of the incidence in 2018: which increased rapidly from 2015 to 2018 (APC=26.75%, P=0.036), than remained stable (APC=−0.18%, P>0.05). The monthly incidence began to change in June (APC January–June=−12.31%, P=0.046; APC June–December=2.00%, P=0.460). Significant upward trends of the incidence were observed in children aged 4 years (AAPC=14.64%, P=0.008) and 5 years (AAPC=15.26%, P<0.001). The SARIMA_{(1,1,2)(1,0,2)12} model residuals were white noise (P=0.771). The retrospective prediction of the incidence for 2025 correlated well with actual incidence (r=0.85), with a prediction interval coverage of 83.33% and underestimated incidence during January-February (overall MAPE=25.28%).

Conclusions The incidence of other infectious diarrheal diseases in Qingyuan showed an overall upward trend from 2015 to 2024. A sustained and significant increase was observed in children aged 4−5 years. Children under 5 years old are the key population for the prevention and control of other infectious diarrheal diseases. Winter and spring are the seasons with high incidence. The SARIMA model showed good prediction performance and can be used as a short-term early warning tool despite the underestimated rates during January–February and needed calibration with real-time surveillance data.