李雷雷, 王大燕, 王芹, 苏琪茹, 周蕾, 向妮娟, 高永军, 涂文校, 孟玲, 洪志恒, 倪大新, 金连梅, 李群. 2013年12月全国突发公共卫生事件及需关注的传染病风险评估[J]. 疾病监测, 2013, 28(12): 964-968. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2013.12.003
引用本文: 李雷雷, 王大燕, 王芹, 苏琪茹, 周蕾, 向妮娟, 高永军, 涂文校, 孟玲, 洪志恒, 倪大新, 金连梅, 李群. 2013年12月全国突发公共卫生事件及需关注的传染病风险评估[J]. 疾病监测, 2013, 28(12): 964-968. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2013.12.003
LI Lei-lei, WANG Da-yan, WANG Qin, SU Qi-ru, ZHOU Lei, XIANG Ni-juan, GAO Yong-jun, TU Wen-xiao, MENG Ling, HONG Zhi-heng, NI Da-xin, JIN Lian-mei, LI Qun. Assessment of risk of public health emergency and communicable diseases concerned in China, December 2013[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2013, 28(12): 964-968. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2013.12.003
Citation: LI Lei-lei, WANG Da-yan, WANG Qin, SU Qi-ru, ZHOU Lei, XIANG Ni-juan, GAO Yong-jun, TU Wen-xiao, MENG Ling, HONG Zhi-heng, NI Da-xin, JIN Lian-mei, LI Qun. Assessment of risk of public health emergency and communicable diseases concerned in China, December 2013[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2013, 28(12): 964-968. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2013.12.003

2013年12月全国突发公共卫生事件及需关注的传染病风险评估

Assessment of risk of public health emergency and communicable diseases concerned in China, December 2013

  • 摘要: 目的 评估2013年12月中国(未包括香港、澳门和台湾地区)突发公共卫生事件及需要关注的传染病风险。方法 根据全国突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种监测资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法首次以视频会议形式邀请国家卫生和计划生育委员会有关司局和全国22个省(直辖市、自治区)疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。结果 根据近期传染病和突发公共卫生事件监测数据,结合既往突发公共卫生事件发生情况及传染病流行特点分析,12月全国突发公共卫生事件报告数和病例数较前期将有所下降。我国南、北方省份流感活动会继续呈上升趋势,随着入冬后气温继续降低,预计全国范围流感样病例就诊数和流感病毒检测阳性率继续上升,暴发数也将继续增多。由于我国禽类养殖、流通、交易方式和人-禽接触(暴露)方式并未得到根本性改变,加上受气温影响禽间禽流感病毒活动有可能趋于增强,预计未来数月我国发生人感染H7N9禽流感散发病例的风险将有所增加。高致病性H5N1禽流感病毒对中国人群健康仍然存在威胁,但其风险并未提高。中东呼吸综合征(MERS)疫情目前尚未构成国际关注的突发公共卫生事件,在我国因MERS输入病例导致国内暴发或流行的可能性依然较小。2013年1 11月流行性出血热疫情上升趋势明显,但11月疫情较2012年同期明显下降,预计12月我国流行性出血热发病水平较往年会有所下降。我国北方地区已进入燃煤取暖季节,非职业性一氧化碳中毒事件将有所增加。结论 2013年12月我国的突发公共卫生事件及传染病疫情发生态势与往年相似,疫情将有所下降;需重点关注流行性感冒、人感染H7N9禽流感、中东呼吸综合征、流行性出血热及非职业性一氧化碳中毒等引发的公共卫生风险。

     

    Abstract: Objective To assess the risk of public health emergency and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China in December 2013. Methods The first video expert counsel conference between China CDC and provincial CDCs was conducted to analyze the incidence data of public health emergency or communicable diseases reported in China through different channels. Results According to the recent and previous communicable disease or public health emergency surveillance data, the incidence of public health emergency in December would decline. The activity of influenza in northern and southern China will continue to increase, and as the further decrease of temperature in winter, outpatient visits due to influenza like illness and positive detections of influenza virus would increase. More outbreaks would occur. Because of the unchanged patterns of poultry raising, trade and human exposure and cold climate, the risk of human infection with H7N9 virus in China would increase in the next few months. Highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N1) still poses threat to the public, but the risk is low. Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) epidemic has not been considered as a public health problem with international concern, and the risk of imported MERS caused outbreak is still low in China. Although the incidence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) increased greatly from January to November in 2013, the incidence declined obviously in November compared with the same period in 2012, and the incidence would continue to decline in December. Coal-fired heating is common in winter in northern China, the risk of non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning would increase. Conclusion It is predicted that the incidence of public health emergency or communicable disease would decline in China in December 2013, which is similar to the same period in previous years. It is necessary to strengthen surveillance for human infection with A (H7N9) virus, MERS, HFRS and non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning.

     

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