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, DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202303090097
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Objective To understand the epidemiological and spatial distribution characteristics of human brucellosis in Guilin, Guangxi Zhuang autonomous region, from 2017 to 2021, and provide the scientific basis for the development of brucellosis prevention and control strategy. Methods The incidence data of the human brucellosis in Guilin from 2017 to 2021 were collected for descriptive and statistical analyses with software spss25.0. Software ArcGIS 10.8 was used for cold and hot spot analysis, global spatial autocorrelation analysis and local spatial autocorrelation analysis. Results A total of 278 cases of human brucellosis were reported in Guilin from 2017 to 2021, and the annual incidence showed a downward trend. The cases occurred all the year round during this period, and the incidence peak was during March-July. The male to female ratio of the cases was 2.02∶1, and the cases were mainly aged 30−69 years, accounting for 89.93% (250/278) of the total. The epidemiological survey in 221 cases indicated that the top three populations affected were people engaged in sheep slaughtering and trading of sheep and sheep products (28.05%, 62/221), farmers (14.48%, 32/221) and the jobless and unemployed (14.03%, 31/221), followed by those with indirect contacts with sheep and sheep products (13.12%, 29/221) and those engaged in sheep breeding (4.52%, 10/221). The cases were reported in 17 counties (districts) in Guilin. The global spatial distribution analysis showed that the incidence of human brucellosis in Guilin showed spatial clustering during 2017−2021. The analysis on hot and cold spots indicated that the areas with high incidence were in main urban area, Lingui and Guanyang, and the annual spatial distribution showed a gradual diffusion trend from clustering to low clustering. Conclusion The incidence of human brucellosis showed a declining trend in Guilin from 2017 to 2021, and the human brucellosis cases occurred after contact with sheep still accounted for a high proportion, and the incidence in some urban areas was still high. It is necessary to continue the joint and targeted prevention and control of human brucellosis, strengthen the surveillance in key populations, standardize the management of livestock trading markets, and conduct health education in general and occupational populations to reduce the incidence of human brucellosis.
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, DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.2021.000
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Objective To analyze the etiological characteristics of a cholera epidemic in Tongzhou district of Beijing in 2022 and make a comparison with previous cholera epidemics in Tongzhou. Methods The specific genes of Vibrio cholerae O1/O139 were detected by real-time PCR. At the same time, the strains were isolated, cultured and identified by conventional method. Eleven virulence genes of V. cholerae were detected by common PCR, and 12 kinds of drug sensitivity tests were carried out by minimal inhibitory concentration method. Not I restriction enzymes were used for pulsed field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) analysis and cluster analysis. Genetic analysis on strains was performed by whole genome sequencing. Results A total of 5 strains of non-virulence V. cholerae O1 serotype Ogawa were detected in this epidemic. All the strains carried ompU, toxR, tcpI, tcpAEL, hlyAEL, hlyACL and rtxC genes, but carried no ctxAB gene. The drug resistance of the 5 strains was consistent. All the strains were resistant to meropenem, cefotaxime, ceftazidime, streptomycin, ampicillin, and ampicillin/sulbactam. PFGE divided the strains into 6 types (Ⅰ- Ⅵ), and the strains causing this epidemic belonged to type Ⅱ. The comparison with the two strains of virulence V. cholerae O1 serotype Ogawa detected in previous local epidemic in 2011 indicated the similar PFGE pattern, the drug resistance was same, the virulence gene carriage was different, but both carried tcpAEL gene. Genetic analysis showed that the strains in this epidemic belonged to new and emerging clonal group which was different from the strain causing the 7th pandemic. Conclusion The predominant V. cholerae O1 strain in Tongzhou belonged to serotype Ogawa without toxin producing. PFGE patterns varied. The strains detected in this epidemic belonged to a newly emerged clone group. In cholera prevention and control in the future, attention should be paid to these strains and targeted strategies should be developed.
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, DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202204070136
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Objective The (sero) type distribution and molecular characteristics of enteroviruses (EV) associated with HA in Shenzhen were investigated to provide scientific basis for HA control and prevention. Methods A total of 314 clinical specimens from 157 HA patients, including 157 feces specimens and 157 throat swabs, were collected between 2017 and 2018. EV types were determined using real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR), RT nested PCR, and sequencing. VP1 sequences were analyzed using bioinformatics programs. Results Ten EV types were detected in 126 EV-positive HA patients (80.30%, 126/157). The most predominant pathogen was coxsackievirus A10 (CVA10) (19.70%, 31/157), followed by CVA4 (17.80%, 28/157), CVA6 (15.30%, 24/157) and CVA2 (10.80%, 17/157). Other pathogens detected included CVA5 (4.50%, 7/157), CVA16 (3.20%, 5/157), EV-A71 (1.30%, 2/157), CVA8 (0.60%, 1/157), CVB5 (0.60%, 1/157) and echovirus 11 (E11) (0.60%, 1/157). One patient co-infected CVA4 with CVA10. The predominant pathogens were CVA2 and CVA6 in 2017, but CVA10 and CVA4 became predominant in 2018. There was no statistically significant difference (χ2=0.0186, P=0.8916) between the pathogen detection rates of feces specimens and throat swabs. Molecular phylogeny based on the complete VP1 gene indicated that all CVA10 strains from this study were assigned to genotype C2 . All CVA4 strains except for one strain which was assigned to genotype C5 belonged to genotype C2. All CVA6 strains except for one strain which grouped in a previously uncharacterized clade were assigned to sub-genotype D3a. All CVA2 strains belonged to genotype D2. Conclusion Both feces specimens and throat swabs are suitable for EV RNA testing for HA. The main pathogens were CVA10, CVA4, CVA6 and CVA2 in HA patients from 2017 to 2018 in Shenzhen, China. A majority of strains belonged to the genotypes which were prevalent in China. And individual strain grouped in an uncommon genotype or clade.
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, DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202305240239
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Objective To understand the carriage, bacterial type distribution, and drug resistance of Salmonella in employees in the food and public place services in Yulin, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, and provide evidence for the development of local prevention and control plan for intestinal infectious diseases. Methods Salmonella isolation and serotyping were performed by using anal swabs collected from the employees; Drug susceptibility of the Salmonella strains to 28 antibiotics were tested by using micro broth dilution method. Results A total of 54588 samples were tested, and the detection rate of Salmonella was 1.85% (1012/54588). The detection rate was higher in summer and autumn than winter and spring. Two drug sensitive plates were randomly used for 1012 Salmonella strains (NMIC-413 drug sensitive plate for 905 Salmonella strains, and RUONMIC-801 drug sensitive plate for 107 Salmonella strains). Due to the difference of antibiotic types, statistical analysis could not be carried out, only analyze the results of 905 strains of NMIC-413 drug sensitive plates. The 1012 strains of Salmonella were divided into 56 serotypes. The first three serotypes were S. typhimurium (22.83%), S. lissenii (11.07%) and S. argonne (6.03%). The drug susceptibility test results of 905 strains showed that the drug resistance rate was 68.84%, and the resistance rate of strains to tetracycline was highest (59.34%), followed by that to chloramphenicol (49.28%) and trimethoprim/sulfamethoxazole (37.13%). The multidrug resistance rate was 40.55%. Conclusion The Salmonella carrying rate was high in the employees engaged in food and public place services in Yulin, and the serotypes of the Salmonella detected were complex. The detection rate of Salmonella varied with season, and the drug resistance level of the strains was high and multiple drug resistance was serious. It is necessary to strengthen the health surveillance for the early detection of Salmonella carriers and standardized medication.
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, DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202302190049
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Objective To analyze the temporal-spatial distribution characteristics of malaria cases in Jiangsu province from 2012 to 2019, to analyze the temporal-spatial clustering of malaria cases, in order to provide theoretical basis for prevention and control of imported cases. Methods The epidemic data of malaria cases in Jiangsu province was collected. The global and local spatial autocorrelation of malaria cases was carried out respectively by ArcGIS 10.2. The temporal-spatial clustering was analyzed by spatial-temporal scanning by SatScan 9.5. Results A total of 2333 malaria cases were reported in Jiangsu province from 2012 to 2019. 2329 (99.83%) cases were imported. 2317 (99.31%) cases were Chinese. 1939 (83.11%) cases were Chinese migrant workers. 2279 (97.85%) cases were imported from African. 43 (1.85%) cases were imported from south-east Asia. The top 5 cities were Nantong (350, 15.00%), Taizhou (277, 11.87%), Lianyungang (276, 11.83%), Yangzhou (268, 11.49%), Huai'an (258, 11.06%). There was a trend in spatial distribution. January-February and April-July were annual bimodal periods. Spatial autocorrelation analysis results showed that there was no obvious global spatial correlation from 2012 to 2019. But there were in hot areas and cold areas in local spatial autocorrelation analysis. Three high risk clustering areas were detected by year-by-year spatial-temporal scanning, involved in Huai’an, Lianyungang, Taizhou, Yangzhou, Nantong. Conclusions There is a certain level of spatial-temporal clustering in malaria cases in Jiangsu province from 2012 to 2019. The targeted measures should be taken to prevent and control the epidemic.
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, DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202305050200
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Objective To understand epidemiological characteristics of public health emergencies caused by infectious diseases in Yunnan province and provide reference for the prevention and control of infectious diseases. Methods The incidence data of public health emergencies caused by infections diseases in Yunnan from 2015 to 2022 were obtained from China Disease Prevention and Control Information System for a descriptive epidemiological analysis. Exponential model was used to predict the incidence of public health emergencies in Yunnan. Results From 2015 to 2022, a total of 1164 public health emergencies caused by infectious diseases were reported in Yunnan, including 1 Ⅲ-level emergency (0.086%), 861 Ⅳ-level emergencies (73.97%) and 302 non graded emergencies (25.95%). The main infection route was respiratory transmission, followed by intestinal transmission. The annual incidence peak was during October-December, and the sub peak was during May-June. The main places where public health emergencies occurred were schools and child care settings, and the main diseases were chickenpox and hand foot and mouth disease. It is predicted that 229 and 256 public health emergencies would occur in the following two years respectively. Conclusion In Yunnan, schools and child care settings are the key places for the prevention and control of public health emergencies caused by infectious diseases. It is necessary to strengthen the surveillance and early warning of respiratory and intestinal infectious disease epidemics in schools and child care settings for the timely detection, reporting, response and control of disease epidemics. At the same time, targeted vaccination and health education should be carried out during the seasons when infectious diseases usually occur.
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, DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202306030256
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The diseases caused by Mycobacteria include tuberculosis (TB), non-tuberculous mycobacterial diseases and leprosy, in which TB is the most serious and infectious one. TB is one of major global infectious diseases that seriously endanger human health and life and one of the major diseases in disease prevention and control in China. Through coughing, expectoration, sneezing, etc., the “droplet nucleus” carrying Mycobacterium tuberculosis is spread from infectious TB patients, causing infection in people nearby. Therefore, the prevention of airborne transmission of TB in health care institutions, public places, and even in families is one of the key measures in TB prevention and control. Active mist ions are charged groups with strong oxidation, including hydroxyl radicals, superoxide radicals, superoxide hydrogen radicals, etc. Under the package and protection of water molecules, they have better stability in air. Disinfection evaluation experiments have showed that active mist ion has good disinfection and sterilization effects on various bacteria and viruses, including Mycobacteria. The experts invited by Chinese Anti-tuberculosis Association, Zoonotic Tuberculosis Sub-association of Chinese Anti-tuberculosis Association and National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention have reached an consensus on the technical principle of active mist ion in air disinfection , composition of disinfection factors, disinfection effect and application in Mycobacterium disinfection through data inquiry, discussion and experimental research to provide technical guidance for the standardized application of active mist ion in air disinfection.
The diseases caused by Mycobacteria include tuberculosis (TB), non-tuberculous mycobacterial diseases and leprosy, in which TB is the most serious and infectious one. TB is one of major global infectious diseases that seriously endanger human health and life and one of the major diseases in disease prevention and control in China. Through coughing, expectoration, sneezing, etc., the “droplet nucleus” carrying Mycobacterium tuberculosis is spread from infectious TB patients, causing infection in people nearby. Therefore, the prevention of airborne transmission of TB in health care institutions, public places, and even in families is one of the key measures in TB prevention and control. Active mist ions are charged groups with strong oxidation, including hydroxyl radicals, superoxide radicals, superoxide hydrogen radicals, etc. Under the package and protection of water molecules, they have better stability in air. Disinfection evaluation experiments have showed that active mist ion has good disinfection and sterilization effects on various bacteria and viruses, including Mycobacteria. The experts invited by Chinese Anti-tuberculosis Association, Zoonotic Tuberculosis Sub-association of Chinese Anti-tuberculosis Association and National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention have reached an consensus on the technical principle of active mist ion in air disinfection , composition of disinfection factors, disinfection effect and application in Mycobacterium disinfection through data inquiry, discussion and experimental research to provide technical guidance for the standardized application of active mist ion in air disinfection.
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, DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202302170048
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Objective To understand the species distribution and spread of non-tuberculous Mycobacteria ( NTM ) in Shaanxi province and provide evidence for clinical diagnosis and prevention of the infections. Methods Retrospective analysis was conducted on the Mycobacterium nucleic acid positive respiratory tract samples collected in Shaanxi Provincial Tuberculosis Prevention and Control Hospital from July 2019 to December 2021. The detected NTM strains were identified by gene chip method and the composition ratio of different species was analyzed. The demographic data and clinical characteristics of the cases were analyzed by χ2 test. Logistic regression analysis was used to evaluate the pathological damage degree of different NTMs in lungs based on the severity of lung lesions. Results The isolation rate of NTM was 3.5% (128/3646). A total of 7 species of NTM were detected, the first 3 were M. intracellular (36.7%, 47/128), M . chelonis/abscess (26.6%, 34/128), and M. Kansas (25.0%, 32/128). The difference in distribution ratio of different NTM infected patients was significant among different age group (χ2=25.727, P<0.001) and among people with different residence (χ2=15.227, P=0.002). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that M. chelonis/abscess caused milder lung pathologic damage compared with the other two species (OR=0.188, P=0.039). Conclusion The NTM detected in this study were mainly M. intracellular, M. chelonis/abscess and M. kansans, and different NTM caused different degrees of pathological damage in lungs.
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, DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202309200493
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Objectives To assess the global epidemic of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in August 2023 and the risk of importation. Methods According to the daily COVID-19 data publicly released by World Health Organization, combined with the travel restrictions published by Sherpa, an epidemiological description method was used to provide a comprehensive and timely assessment of the global epidemic risk through a general overview, a comprehensive assessment of the epidemic trends in each continent and key countries, as well as a comprehensive analysis of the epidemic and travel requirements in 14 neighboring countries. Results Compared with the previous month, the number of confirmed cases and deaths globally increased 3.97% , while the number of deaths decreased by 45.8% in August 2023. Italy, the UK, Mexico, Greece, Portugal and Romania are the countries of global concern. Close attention should be paid to Israel in Asia, Saint Lucia in North America and Morocco in Africa. Special concern should be paid to Russia, India, Afghanistan, Nepal and Kyrgyzstan among the 14 land-boarding countries. Conclusion The global daily new confirmed cases showed a upward trend in August, while deaths cases showed a downward trend. It is necessary to continuously monitor countries with global concern and establish a communication mechanism with relevant agencies to exchange information and provide timely warnings.
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, DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202309190492
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In August 2023, a total of 72 infectious diseases were reported globally, affecting 236 countries and regions. Except for influenza, the top five infectious diseases affecting greatest number of countries and regions were COVID-19 (236), monkeypox (114), dengue fever (31), measles (31) and cholera (16). The top five infectious diseases with highest case fatality rates were Middle East respiratory syndrome (36.0%), Lassa fever (16.9%), Crimean-congo hemorrhagic fever (11.8%), meningitis (6.7%) and West Nile disease (6.1%). The top five infectious diseases with greatest number of deaths were COVID-19, dengue fever, cholera, measles and diphtheria. The prevalent infectious diseases in Asia were COVID-19, cholera, monkeypox, Crimean-congo hemorrhagic fever and dengue fever, the prevalent infectious diseases in Africa were COVID-19, cholera, monkeypox, Lassa fever, meningitis and poliomyelitis, the prevalent infectious diseases in America were COVID-19, dengue fever, chikungunya fever and monkeypox, the prevalent infectious disease in Europe was West Nile disease.
In August 2023, a total of 72 infectious diseases were reported globally, affecting 236 countries and regions. Except for influenza, the top five infectious diseases affecting greatest number of countries and regions were COVID-19 (236), monkeypox (114), dengue fever (31), measles (31) and cholera (16). The top five infectious diseases with highest case fatality rates were Middle East respiratory syndrome (36.0%), Lassa fever (16.9%), Crimean-congo hemorrhagic fever (11.8%), meningitis (6.7%) and West Nile disease (6.1%). The top five infectious diseases with greatest number of deaths were COVID-19, dengue fever, cholera, measles and diphtheria. The prevalent infectious diseases in Asia were COVID-19, cholera, monkeypox, Crimean-congo hemorrhagic fever and dengue fever, the prevalent infectious diseases in Africa were COVID-19, cholera, monkeypox, Lassa fever, meningitis and poliomyelitis, the prevalent infectious diseases in America were COVID-19, dengue fever, chikungunya fever and monkeypox, the prevalent infectious disease in Europe was West Nile disease.
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, DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202212280554
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Objective To understand the ecological factors in the origin process and transmission of communicable diseases, explore the complex relationship among the occurrence, development and transmission paths of communicable diseases, and provide a systematic perspective for the effective prevention and control of communicable diseases. Methods Given the fact that a communicable disease epidemic results from complex ecological processes, the dynamic characteristics of the epidemic were summarized based on the viewpoint of system theory, and the interaction between the organism intrinsic factors and environment factors and social factors (biological and non-biological factors) were analyzed. Results From a balanced perspective of sustainable ecological development, a biological-natural-social ecosystem framework was constructed based on the biological characteristics of pathogen genetic metabolism, the characteristics of natural environment in which pathogens survive and evolve, and the characteristics of social environment by which pathogens spread. On this basis, the modeling of transmission of communicable diseases was conducted for the research of disease transmission mechanism, analysis on the transmission of communicable diseases under different conditions and evaluation of related control measures. Conclusion By clarifying the complex relationships in ecosystems resulting from biodiversity based on the construction of ecological framework, we can improve disease surveillance and response capabilities, provide scientific and feasible solutions for disease control and improve emergency management level.
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, DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202211090482
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Objective To construct a combinatorial prediction model for infectious diseases by using software R, and provide reference for disease surveillance. Methods The monthly incidence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) in China, and in Jilin, Liaoning and Heilongjiang provinces from 2004 to 2017 were used as the training data to fit models, and the data from January to December 2018 were used to evaluate the prediction effect. Seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA), exponential smoothing (ETS), neural network autoregression (NNETAR), and exponential smoothing state space model (TBATS) were selected, and “forecastHybrid” package in software R was used to construct combinatorial models. Single models with the same weight was recorded as combinatorial model A; the combinatorial model with the weight of single models determined according to the fitting effect of the training data was recorded as combinatorial model B. Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and root mean square error (RMSE) were used to evaluate the fitting and prediction effects of the six models. The data from 2004 to 2011, 2004 to 2012, 2004 to 2013, 2004 to 2014, 2004 to 2015, 2004 to 2016 and 2004 to 2017 were selected as training sets to construct the models respectively, and predict the incidence from January to December in the following year for sensitivity analysis. The fitting of combinatorial model, and the rank of MAPE and RMSE predicted were calculated to evaluate the stability of model fitting and prediction effects. Results The MAPEs fitted by SARIMA, ETS, NNETAR, TBATS, combinatorial model A, and combinatorial model B in China, and in Jilin, Liaoning and Heilongjiang provinces were 11.81%, 9.75%, 11.50%, 9.71%, 8.09%, 8.06%; 29.63%, 15.39%, 23.04%, 14.60%, 16.33%, 16.29%;19.76%, 15.48%, 3.93%, 15.24%, 12.66%, 7.08%; 21.92%, 17.96%, 6.73%, 15.80%, 13.55%, 10.29% respectively. The predicted MAPEs of SARIMA, ETS, NNETAR, TBATS, combinatorial model A and combinatorial model B in China, and in Jilin, Liaoning and Heilongjiang provinces were 23.38%, 20.35%, 11.01%, 34.28%, 17.03%, 16.02%; 11.72%%, 14.26%, 24.32%, 14.16%, 11.93%, 11.92%; 28.09%, 27.57%, 29.19%, 27.32%, 26.91%, 26.49%; 23.72%, 33.28%, 28.96%, 33.785%, 25% 27.31% respectively. The RMSEs fitted by SARIMA, ETS, NNETAR, TBATS, combinatorial model A and combinatorial model B in China, and in Jilin, Liaoning and Heilongjiang provinces were 0.01, 0.01, 0.01, 0.01, 0.01, 0.01; 0.08, 0.08, 0.05, 0.08, 0.05, 0.05; 0.08, 0.07, 0.01, 0.07, 0.04, 0.02; 0.16, 0.16, 0.04, 0.15, 0.08, 0.06 respectively. The RMSEs predicted by SARIMA, ETS, NNETAR, TBATS, combinatorial model A and combinatorial model B in China, and in Jilin, Liaoning and Heilongjiang provinces were 0.02, 0.01, 0.02, 0.02, 0.01, 0.01; 0.03, 0.04, 0.07, 0.04 , 0.05, 0.05; 0.07, 0.05, 0.05, 0.05, 0.05, 0.05; 0.13, 0.14, 0.11, 0.14, 0.12, 0.12 respectively. The sensitivity analysis showed that the overall fitting effect of combinatorial model B ranked first, and combinatorial model A ranked 2–4. From the perspective of the prediction effect, the optimal effect of the combinatorial model in the two evaluation indicators ranked first or second. Conclusion The performance of fitting and prediction of the combinatorial model are better than that of the single model, and the combinatorial model with the model weights according to the fitting effect of the training data is the optimal model. The combinatorial model can be constructed by simple programming using software R, the application of the model is worthy to promote.
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, DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202301280011
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Objective To investigate and confirm the existence of natural focus of plague in Altay Mountain of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region. Methods The plague focus investigation were carried out in Altay Mountain area, Qinghe, Fuhai, Altay, during 2021−2022. The experimental methods included bacteriological, serological, molecular biological identification assays in specimens (rodent organs, serum, heart infusion, vector parasitic fleas). In addition, biochemical type of Yersinia pestis isolates was identified. Results A total of 115 rodents, including dead ones, and 136 vector parasitic fleas were captured in Altay Mountains area. In the rodents, the predominant species were C. undulates and Marmota baibacina, accounting for 60.87% and 20.87%, respectively. In the parasitic fleas, the predominant species were Citellophilus tesquorum altaicus and Oropsylla silantiewi, accounting for 67.74% and 100.00%, respectively. A total of 86 serum samples, 21 samples of heart infusion of small mouse, 8 samples of dead rodent organ grinding fluid were tested through bacteriological, immunological methods, and 8 DNA samples extracted from dead rodent organ tissues were detected by real-time PCR. One F1 antibody positive serum sample of C. undulates was detected, the titer of indirect hemagglutination assay (IHA) was 1∶128 and the titer of ELISA was 1∶256. One positive sample of plague F1 antigen was detected in the grinding fluid of dead M. baibacina organ, the titer of reverse indirect hemagglutination assay (RIHA) was 1∶64, and titer of ELISA was 1∶128. Two positive samples of plague F1 antigen were detected in dead C. undulates organ grinding fluid, the titers of RIHA were 1∶512 and 1∶1 024; the titers of ELISA were 1∶2 048 and 1∶4 096 respectively. Plague special real-time PCR detected 2 positive samples in C. undulates organ tissues. Two strains of Y. pestis were isolated and corresponding biovars were identified as Antique type. Conclusion A new plague focus was identified in the Altay Mountain area of Xinjiang and the biochemical types belonged to Antique.
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, DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202211030474
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Objective To evaluate the performance of Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) model for estimating the prevalence of syphilis in China. Methods The incidence data of syphilis in China from January 2005 to August 2022 were collected. The trend and seasonal components in the syphilis monthly incidence data were analyzed by using software Eviews10. The model was constructed by using software RStudio, and in the model development, the incidence data from January 2005 to December 2021 were used as the training set to fit the BSTS model, whereas the incidence data from January to August 2022 were used as the test set to verify the prediction potential of the model. Subsequently, the prediction accuracy of BSTS model was compared with that of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. The test levels for all statistical analyses were designated as \begin{document}$ \alpha $\end{document} ![]()
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=0.05. Results Overall, the incidence of syphilis in China showed an upward trend and had a periodicity and seasonality with the trough during January-February and the peak during July-August. On the training and testing sets, the average absolute percentage error of BSTS model (4.95%, 5.73%) was lower than those of ARIMA model (5.44%, 6.52%). Also, it was found that the mean absolute error, root mean square error, and root mean square percentage error of BSTS model were lower than those of ARIMA model. The robustness test indicated the same result. The predicted total case number of syphilis was 719 600 (95%CI: 605 295–826 086) from September 2022 to December 2023 by BSTS model, with a monthly average of 44 975 cases (95%CI: 37 831–51 631). Conclusion In China, syphilis is a seasonal disease with high incidence. The BSTS model can be used for accurately assessing the incidence of syphilis and providing technical support for the accurate prevention and control of syphilis.
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, DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202301180005
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Objective To obtain the latent infection and distribution characteristics of Mycobacterium tuberculosis in freshmen in senior high schools and boarding junior high schools in Ningbo by analyzing the tuberculin skin test results of some students, and provide evidence for the improvement of tuberculosis (TB) prevention and control strategies in schools. Methods TB symptom screening and purified protein derivative (PPD) test were conducted in 16,795 freshmen. The students with strong positive results of PPD were examined by chest X-ray, sputum smear and sputum culture. χ2 test and Fisher's exact test were used to compare the differences in rates among different groups. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to identify the influencing factors of strong PPD positive reaction and tuberculosis infection risk. Results The positive rate of PPD tests in the freshmen in senior high schools and boarding junior high schools in Ningbo was 17.23%, the strong positive rate was 2.69% and the infection rate was 7.83%. Three active TB cases were found in this screening, and the incidence of TB was 17.86/100 000. The results of multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that gender, school type and age were the influencing factors for the risk of strong PPD positive action and infection in the freshmen. The risks for strong PPD positive reaction (OR=1.445, 95%CI: 1.197–1.745) and infection (OR=1.413, 95%CI: 1.262–1.582) in girls were higher than those in boys. The risks for strong PPD positive reaction (OR=1.535, 95%CI: 1.23–1.914) and infection (OR=1.525, 95%CI: 1.330–1.748) in freshmen in vocational middle schools were higher than those in freshmen in non-vocational middle schools. Compared with freshmen aged less than 13 years, those aged 14–15 years (OR=1.315, 95%CI: 1.037–1.666) and 16–17 years (OR=1.436, 95%CI: 1.115–1.851) were at a higher risk for strong PPD positive reaction, and the students aged 16–17 years (OR=1.195, 95%CI: 1.029–1.386) and ≥18 years (OR=2.009, 95%CI: 1.108–3.642) were at higher risk for infection. Conclusion PPD screening in freshmen can help identify infection sources as early as possible for the control of TB transmission, and find the key population in the prevention and control of TB and take targeted prevention measures in schools. Given the importance of PPD screening in TB prevention and control in schools, the PPD screening in freshmen is promoted to cover all the middle school students in Ningbo, especially the girl students, vocational middle school students, and the students in minor ethnic groups.
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, DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202304270188
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Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of hepatitis C in Suzhou from 2016 to 2022, and provide evidence for the prevention and control of hepatitis C. Methods The incidence data of hepatitis C in Suzhou from 2016 to 2022 were collected for a descriptive epidemiological analysis on the distributions of hepatitis C cases in Suzhou. The differences in incidence of hepatitis C among different groups were compared with χ2 test with P<0.05 indicating significant difference. Results From 2016 to 2022, a total of 2777 cases of hepatitis C were reported in Suzhou, with an incidence rate of 3.14/100 000, showing an increasing trend by year. Hepatitis C was reported all the year round with no obvious seasonality(M=0.100). The incidence of hepatitis C was higher in main urban area than that in non-main urban area. The case number and incidence rate of hepatitis C were highest in Gusu district (540 cases, 8.11/100 000). The average annual incidence rate was higher in men (3.27/100 000) than in women (3.00/100 000), the difference was significant (χ2=4.832, P=0.028). The average annual incidence rate was higher in people aged 65– years (5.08/100 000) than in people aged 15–64 years (3.37/100 000), and the difference was significant (χ2=76.603, P<0.001). The cases were mainly the jobless or unemployed (33.71%), farmers (19.81%), workers (14.76%), people engaged in business services (13.90%) and retirees (12.71%). Conclusion From 2016 to 2022, the overall incidence of hepatitis C in Suzhou showed a rise trend. The incidence of hepatitis C showed no seasonality in Suzhou, but the differences in hepatitis C incidence among areas and populations were significant. The incidence of hepatitis C was high in Gusu district. It is necessary to standardize the reporting of hepatitis C in hospitals and strengthen case screening and health education in key populations in areas with high incidence of hepatitis C.
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, DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202303300140
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Objective To analyze the medical care seeking delay in pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) patients in floating population and influencing factors in Tongzhou district of Beijing, and provide scientific evidence for reducing the medical care seeking delay in pulmonary TB patients, 2012−2021. Methods The information of pulmonary TB patients in floating population in Tongzhou from 2012 to 2021, including gender, age, ethnicity, occupation, case source, the result of etiological examination, treatment classification, complication, current address, onset date of, the date of the first medical case seeking and the date of registration, were collected from Tuberculosis Management Information Sub-system of China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention to analyze the distribution and trend of the medical care seeking delay. Univariate χ2 test and multivariate Logistic regression analysis were conducted to identify the influencing factors. Results From 2012 to 2021, a total of 3202 cases of pulmonary TB patients in floating population were registered in Tongzhou. The male to female ratio of the patients was 1.75∶1. The patients were mainly aged 15–44 years (79.17%, 2535/3202). The median quartile of medical care seeking delay was 7 days (0, 32). The average medical care seeking delay rate was 38.63% (1237/3202). The median of health care seeking delay ranged from 10 days in 2012 to 2 days in 2021, showing a downward trend. The medical care seeking delay rate decreased from 43.33% (91/210) in 2012 to 33.07% (126/381) in 2021 (trend χ2 =8.933, P=0.003). The majority of the patients with medical care seeking delay were men (62.33%, 771/1237). The composition ratio of the patients aged 25–44 years was highest (54.49%, 674/1237), the differences were significant among different age groups (trend χ2=21.644, P<0.001). Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that unknown occupation [odds ratio (OR) =2.351, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.282–4.312] and re-treatment (OR=1.457, 95%CI: 1.024–2.075) were risk factors for medical carte seeking delay. Being in minority ethnic group (OR=0.662, 95%CI: 0.515–0.85), being engaged in public/business service (OR=0.529, 95%CI: 0.385–0.726), being negative in etiological examination/unexamined (OR=0.637, 95%CI: 0.547–0.742) and being registered during 2020−2021 (OR=0.650, 95%CI: 0.539–0.784) were protective factors for medical care seeking delay. Conclusion The medical care seeking delay rate in pulmonary TB patients in floating population in Tongzhou showed a downward trend. The medical care seeking delay was related to ethnicity, occupation, the result of etiological examination, treatment classification and date of registration. It is necessary to take targeted intervention measures.
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, DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202303140102
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Objective To understand the status of the reporting and epidemiological characteristics of notifiable communicable diseases in a grade 3A specialized hospital for cardiovascular disease, and provide scientific evidence for the development of communicable disease and nosocomial infection control measures. Methods A descriptive study was conducted to statistically analyze the reporting rate, population distribution and transmission routes of notifiable communicable diseases reported directly online by Fuwai Hospital of Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences from 2017 to 2022. Results From 2017 to 2022, a total of 655 notifiable communicable diseases were reported om hospital, including 593 cases of class B diseases, 61 cases of class C diseases, and 1 case of other type disease. The total reporting rate showed a decreasing trend year by year, and the top three communicable diseases were recessive syphilis, pulmonary tuberculosis and other infectious diarrhea, mainly hematogenous borne and sexually transmitted diseases. Conclusion The results suggested that it is necessary to strengthen the prevention and control of syphilis and pulmonary tuberculosis in the hospital. At the same time, the hospital should pay more attention to emerging acute communicable diseases, such as monkey pox, and improve the ability of emergency response.
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, DOI: 10.3787/jbjc20230020
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Objective To analyze the association between central obesity and cardiometabolic diseases or cardiometabolic comorbidity in residents aged 35–75 years in Inner Mongolia autonomous region. Methods Residents aged 35–75 years recruited in “Early Screening and Comprehensive Intervention in Population at High Risk for Cardiovascular Diseases” in Inner Mongolia from September 2015 to June 2017 were selected for the study. Statistical analysis was performed by using software SPSS 25.0 and GraphPad Prism 5, mainly statistical description, χ2 test and logistic regression analysis, to understand impact of central obesity on cardiometabolic diseases (hypertension, diabetes, dyslipidemia) and cardiometabolic comorbidity. Results The prevalence rate of central obesity was 66.5% (95%CI: 66.2%–66.7%), and the standardized rate was 64.6% in residents aged 35–75 years in Inner Mongolia. The proportions of persons with 0, 1, 2 and 3 cardiometabolic diseases were 28.8%, 40.5%, 23.8% and 6.9%, respectively. The results of logistic regression analysis showed that the risk for hypertension, diabetes, dyslipidemia and cardiometabolic comorbidity were 1.873 times and 3.093 times, 1.876 times and 2.764 times, 2.227 times and 3.412 times, 2.526 times and 4.419 times higher in people with mild central obesity and severe central obesity than in those without central obesity (all P<0.001). Conclusions Central obesity is a serious health problem in Inner Mongolia, and it is a risk factor for cardiometabolic diseases or cardiometabolic comorbidity, Therefore, we should strengthen the early screening of central obesity and conduct intervention.
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, DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202208150364
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Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of tuberculosis (TB) in Yunnan province from 2010 to 2021 and provide reference for the prevention and treatment of TB in Yunnan. Methods The incidence data of TB in Yunnan from 2010 to 2021 were collected from Tuberculosis Surveillance Information System. Software Arcgis 10.7 was used for the visualization of the incidence of TB for a descriptive analysis on the epidemiological characteristics of TB in Yunnan. Results The incidence of TB fluctuated in Yunnan between 2010 and 2021 (χ2=858.570, P<0.001). A total of 333,846 TB cases were reported accumulatively with an annual average incidence rate of 57.58/100,000. In men, 224,397 TB cases were reported with an annual average incidence rate of 67.22%, while in women, 109,449 TB cases were reported with an annual average incidence rate of 32.78%. The male to female ratio of the cases was 2.05:1. In terms of temporal distribution, TB cases were mainly reported in during April-July. In terms of spatial distribution, the TB incidence rate was significantly higher in Nujiang prefecture than in other prefectures. In terms of age distribution, most TB cases were reported in people aged 15−70 years. In terms of occupation distribution, most cases were farmers (258,509, 77.43%), followed by students (19,454, 5.83%). Conclusions Men and farmers had become the main populations affected by TB in Yunnan, youth and middle-aged people accounted for high proportion in the TB cases. It is necessary to strengthen the prevention and treatment of TB at three levels, conduct active screening and organize follow up regularly.
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, DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202109220515
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Objective To evaluate the application effect of a rapid PCR method for detecting Corynebacterium striatum (C. striatum) in clinical isolates and clinical sputum specimens. Methods A single PCR method for the detection of C. striatum was established using PCR primers Cst_1-F/Cst_1-R designed for the species-specific gene ftr1. The C. striatum reference strain ATCC6940, ATCC43751, 152 clinical isolates and 30 non-C. striatum strains was used to verify the effectiveness of this method. The resultof this PCR method was compared with that of 16S rRNA gene sequencing and MALDI-TOF MS.The specificity and sensitivity of this PCR method were evaluated. Finally, this PCR method was used to detect 88 clinical sputum specimens. Results The result of the PCR method was 100% consistent with that of 16S rRNA sequencing and MALDI-TOF MS in the identification of 152 C. striatum clinical isolates. There was no cross reaction in 30 non-C. striatum strains.The limit of detection was 1 ng template DNA per reaction.When applied this PCR method to detect clinical sputum specimens, the consistency of this method compared with sputum smear microscopy was 86.4% (76/88). Conclusion As a convenient, economic and effective method, the PCR assay in this study may replace 16S rRNA gene sequencing and MALDI-TOF MS for the clinical identification of C. striatum. Also, this assay has good application effect in the detection of C. striatum in clinical sputum specimens.
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, DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.2021
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In May 2021, a total of 67 infectious diseases were reported globally, affecting 225 countries and regions. Except for influenza, the top five infectious diseases affecting greatest number of countries and regions were corona virus disease 2019(COVID-19, 225), dengue fever (30), measles (29), poliomyelitis (15) and malaria (9). The top five infectious diseases with highest case fatality rates were Ebola virus disease (52.2%), Middle East respiratory syndrome (34.4%), lassa fever (20.3%), plague (6.0%) and Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever (5.3%). The top five infectious diseases with greatest number of deaths were COVID-19, malaria, measles, dengue fever and cholera. The prevalent infectious diseases in Asia were COVID-19 and dengue fever, the prevalent infectious diseases in Africa were COVID-19, Ebola virus disease, plague, cholera, yellow fever, lassa fever and Rift valley fever, the prevalent infectious diseases in America were COVID-19 and dengue fever, the prevalent infectious disease in Europe was COVID-19.
In May 2021, a total of 67 infectious diseases were reported globally, affecting 225 countries and regions. Except for influenza, the top five infectious diseases affecting greatest number of countries and regions were corona virus disease 2019(COVID-19, 225), dengue fever (30), measles (29), poliomyelitis (15) and malaria (9). The top five infectious diseases with highest case fatality rates were Ebola virus disease (52.2%), Middle East respiratory syndrome (34.4%), lassa fever (20.3%), plague (6.0%) and Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever (5.3%). The top five infectious diseases with greatest number of deaths were COVID-19, malaria, measles, dengue fever and cholera. The prevalent infectious diseases in Asia were COVID-19 and dengue fever, the prevalent infectious diseases in Africa were COVID-19, Ebola virus disease, plague, cholera, yellow fever, lassa fever and Rift valley fever, the prevalent infectious diseases in America were COVID-19 and dengue fever, the prevalent infectious disease in Europe was COVID-19.
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, DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202011300402
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, DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202012270443
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2023, 38(8).
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2023, 38(8): 1-3.
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2023, 38(8): 891-891.
DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202308180425
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2023, 38(8): 892-893.
DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202308180424
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2023, 38(8): 894-896.
DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202308190429
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In July 2023, a total of 74 infectious diseases were reported globally, affecting 236 countries and regions. Except for influenza, the top five infectious diseases affecting greatest number of countries and regions were COVID-19 (236), monkeypox (113), dengue fever (29), measles (27) and cholera (19). The top five infectious diseases with highest case fatality rates were Middle East respiratory syndrome (35.9%), Lassa fever (16.9%), Crimean-congo hemorrhagic fever (9.8%), West Nile disease (7.3%) and meningitis (6.3%). The top five infectious diseases with greatest number of deaths were COVID-19, dengue fever, cholera, measles and Crimean-congo hemorrhagic fever. The prevalent infectious diseases in Asia were COVID-19, cholera, monkeypox, Crimean-congo hemorrhagic fever and dengue fever, the prevalent infectious diseases in Africa were COVID-19, cholera, yellow fever, Lassa fever, monkeypox and meningitis, the prevalent infectious diseases in America were COVID-19, dengue fever and monkeypox, the prevalent infectious disease in Europe was West Nile disease.
In July 2023, a total of 74 infectious diseases were reported globally, affecting 236 countries and regions. Except for influenza, the top five infectious diseases affecting greatest number of countries and regions were COVID-19 (236), monkeypox (113), dengue fever (29), measles (27) and cholera (19). The top five infectious diseases with highest case fatality rates were Middle East respiratory syndrome (35.9%), Lassa fever (16.9%), Crimean-congo hemorrhagic fever (9.8%), West Nile disease (7.3%) and meningitis (6.3%). The top five infectious diseases with greatest number of deaths were COVID-19, dengue fever, cholera, measles and Crimean-congo hemorrhagic fever. The prevalent infectious diseases in Asia were COVID-19, cholera, monkeypox, Crimean-congo hemorrhagic fever and dengue fever, the prevalent infectious diseases in Africa were COVID-19, cholera, yellow fever, Lassa fever, monkeypox and meningitis, the prevalent infectious diseases in America were COVID-19, dengue fever and monkeypox, the prevalent infectious disease in Europe was West Nile disease.
2023, 38(8): 897-900.
DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202308250434
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Objective To assess the risk of public health emergencies that may occur or be imported from abroad in China (except Hong Kong and Macao Special Administrative Regions and Taiwan province, the same below) in August 2023. Methods Based on various data and departmental notification information on domestic and foreign public health emergencies reports and surveillance of key infectious diseases, the expert consultation method was used and experts from provincial (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government) centers for disease control and prevention were invited to participate in the assessment by video conference. Results It is predicted that the incidence of public health emergencies in August 2023 would be similar to that in July 2023. The main public health emergencies would be infectious diseases such as Mpox, COVID-19 and dengue fever. The national epidemic of COVID-19 in China would still be at a low level, with less impact on medical order and social operation. The epidemic of Mpox would still be in progress, with a higher risk of sustained transmission among men who have sex with men (MSM) and a lower risk of infection in the general population. Cholera would still be in the high incidence season, and it is expected that sporadic cases would still occur and clusters or outbreaks caused by gatherings or water contamination would possibly occur. Due to high risk of flooding and geologic hazards in August, attention should be paid to the post-disaster risk of waterborne, foodborne, and vectorborne infectious diseases in the disaster-stricken areas. Conclusion Special attention should be paid to COVID-19, close attention should be paid to Mpox, and general attention should be paid to cholera and natural disaster.
2023, 38(8): 901-904.
DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202308190430
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Objective To assess the global epidemic of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in July 2023 and the risk of importation. Methods According to the daily COVID-19 data publicly released by World Health Organization, combined with the travel restrictions published by Sherpa, an epidemiological description method was used to provide a comprehensive and timely assessment of the global epidemic risk through a general overview, a comprehensive assessment of the epidemic trends in each continent and key countries, as well as a comprehensive analysis of the epidemic and travel requirements in 14 neighboring countries. Results Compared with the previous month, the number of confirmed cases and deaths globally decreased by 2.89% and 52.27% respectively in July 2023. South Korea and Guatemala are the countries of global concern, the new cases of which increased significantly this month compared with the last month. Close attention should be paid to Peru in South America and Palau in Oceania. Special concern should be paid to The Lao People's Democratic Republic among the 14 land-boarding countries. Conclusion The global daily new confirmed cases and deaths showed a downward trend in July. It is necessary to continuously monitor countries with global concern and establish a communication mechanism with relevant agencies to exchange information and provide timely warnings.
2023, 38(8): 905-908.
DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202209220418
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Objective To assess the risk of importation and local transmission of the global monkeypox(mpox) epidemic into China in 2022. Methods According to World Health Organization and other official website notification and related literature, comprehensively analyse and assess risk of importation and local transmission in China based on the characteristics of mpox and the global epidemic situation. Results The risk of mpox imported into China is still very high, and there is the possibility of local transmission in men who have sex with men(MSM), but the risk of large-scale spread in the general population is very low. Conclusion In view of the importation risk of mpox into China, while strengthening the quarantine of inbound personnel, the publicity and education of inbound personnel and other key groups, as well as the training of medical institutions at all levels, so as to ensure the early detection and disposal of the epidemic and reduce the risk of local transmission in China.
2023, 38(8): 909-913.
DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202206240294
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Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of genital chlamydia trachomatis infection in women aged 20−49 years in Zhejiang province and provide scientific evidence for the precise prevention of genital chlamydia trachomatis infection. Methods The incidence data o of genital chlamydia trachomatis infection in women aged 20−49 in Zhejiang from 2017 to 2021 were collected from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention for a descriptive analysis. Results A total of 85 747 cases of genital chlamydia trachomatis infection in women aged 20−49 years were reported in Zhejiang. The average annual incidence rate was 122.50/100 000, and the incidence rate was highest in 2019 (134.71/100 000). The cases aged 25–34 years accounted for the highest proportion (74.34%). The cases were mainly the jobless or unemployed, farmers, people engaged in business services and workers, amounting for 83.10%. The cases were reported in all the 11 prefectures (municipality) in Zhejiang. The case number was highest in Hangzhou, amounting for 39.33%. Conclusion The prevalence of genital chlamydia trachomatis infection in women aged 20–49 years was serious in Zhejiang. It is necessary to take effective measures to control the infection, establish a joint mechanism of disease control and women's health care, strengthen health promotion, active screening and case management in order to protect the reproductive health of women of childbearing age and promote healthy birth.
2023, 38(8): 914-918.
DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202210170450
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Objective To analyze the spatiotemporal distribution of brucellosis in China from 2011 to 2020 and provide the evidence for the prevention and control measures of brucellosis in field training of troops. Methods The incidence data of brucellosis were downloaded from Chinese Center for Disease Prevention and Control. The monthly case numbers during 2011–2020 were collected. Circle distribution method was used to identify the incidence peak day and peak period of brucellosis, and Joinpoint regression analysis was used to identify the long-term trend of annual and monthly incidence and evaluate the long-term trend and annual percent change (APC) of the disease . The spatial distribution characteristics of brucellosis in eastern, southern, western, northern and central China were analyzed. Results The average incidence of brucellosis was 3.52/100 000 in China from 2011 to 2020. The incidence trend of brucellosis showed no obvious change (APC=−2.12%, P=5.589). The monthly incidence increased significantly from January to May (APC=34.38%, P=0.006), but decreased significantly from May to December (APC=−11.66%), the difference was significant (P=0.001). The obvious seasonality of brucellosis was observed from 2011 to 2020, brucellosis occurred all the year round, however, the obvious peak day and peak period were observed (P<0.001), but varied from year to year (F=332.03, P<0.001). The annual peak day was 26th June, and the peak period was from 21st March to 2nd October. The case number was highest in northern China, followed by central, eastern, southern and eastern China. The case number of brucellosis in Inner Mongolia (78 646 cases) and Heilongjiang (45 132 cases) in the northern China ranked top two, followed by that in Shanxi (44 155 cases) in central China and Xinjiang (42 357 cases) in western China. Conclusion The incidence of brucellosis was high in northern and central China. The peak day was 26th June, and the peak period was from 21st March to 2nd October. Troops should pay attention to the prevention and control of brucellosis in field training in the areas with high-incidence of the disease, especially in the incidence peak period. .
2023, 38(8): 919-923.
DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202211130496
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Objective To understand the spatial distribution of pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) in the elderly in Inner Mongolia Autonomous region, identify the areas with high incidence of pulmonary TB, and provide evidence for the development of pulmonary TB prevention and control measures. Methods The registered data of pulmonary TB in the elderly in 105 banners (counties and districts) of Inner Mongolia from 2016 to 2020 were collected. Combined with the vectorized provincial boundary electronic map of China, spatial analysis method was used to analyze the spatiotemporal clustering. Results From 2016 to 2020, the annual registered rate of pulmonary TB in the elderly in Inner Mongolia was 126.2/100 000, and the highest registered rate was 163.6/100 000 in 2018.The male to female ratio of the cases was 1.5∶1, lower than that in those under 65 years old (2.2∶1); The three-dimensional trend chart showed a sharp decline and a slow increase from the west to the east, and a gradual increase from the north to the south for the annual registration rate of pulmonary TB in the elderly in Inner Mongolia from 2016 to 2020. The spatial autocorrelation showed that there was a positive spatial correlation in pulmonary TB registration rate in the elderly in Inner Mongolia in 2016, 2017, 2019 and 2020, and the Moran I were 0.180, 0.188, 0.260 and 0.239 (P<0.05). The high-high clustering areas were in Ejin banner and Right banner of Alxa league, Linhe district and Wuyuan county of Bayan Nur, and Guyang county of Baotou (P<0.05). The spatiotemporal scanning results showed that there were 5 clustering areas covered 9 districts, the first type of clustering area covered 5 districts in western area with Urad Middle banner as the center during 2017−2018. The pulmonary TB registration rate in the elderly in this area was 3.235 times higher than that in neighboring areas (RR=3.235). Conclusion In 2016, 2017, 2019 and 2020, the pulmonary TB registration rate in the elderly in Inner Mongolia showed spatial clustering distribution, and the clustering areas were mainly in the western area. The prevention and control of tuberculosis in the elderly in the western area should be strengthened.
2023, 38(8): 924-928.
DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202209150400
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Objective This study aimed to understand the epidemic status of drug-resistant tuberculosis (DR-TB) in Shanxi Province in recent 5 years, and to provide scientific basis for the formulation of DR-TB prevention and control policies in Shanxi province. Methods The drug-resistance screening, drug-resistance detection and comprehensive diagnosis results of patients with positive etiological tuberculosis registered from 2016 to 2020 were collected from tuberculosis Information Management System, a sub-system of China Disease Control and Prevention Information System, and to conduct a descriptive analysis of the prevalence of DR-TB in Shanxi Province. Results A total of 16214 patients with etiologically positive pulmonary tuberculosis were registered in Shanxi province from 2016 to 2020, and 8075 strains of Mycobacterium tuberculosis were cultured positive. The total drug resistance rate, multi-drug resistance rate, single drug resistance rate, poly-resistance rate, and extensively drug-resistance rate of 8075 strains were 11.49%(928/8075), 8.54%(690/8075), 1.93%(156/8075), 0.80%(65/8075) and 0.21%(17/8075), respectively. In recent 5 years, the total drug resistance rate and multi-drug resistance rate and extensively drug-resistance rate showed a downward trend (trends χ2=276.329, P<0.001; trends χ2=297.186, P<0.001; trends χ2=6.300, P<0.05). The total drug resistance rate [23.89% (308/1289)] and the multi-drug resistance rate [18.23% (235/1289)] of the retreated patients were significantly higher than those of the untreated patients [the total drug resistance rate was 9.14% (620/6786), and the multi-drug resistance rate was 6.7% (455/6786)], and the difference was statistically significant (χ2=231.95, P<0.001; χ2=184.155, P<0.001).In recent 5 years, the number of drug-resistant tuberculosis patients has been increasing year by year, the main groups are initial treated patients, young and middle-aged people and farmers. the spectrum of drug resistant tuberculosis became more complicated, and the single drug resistant strains were mainly rifampicin-resistant bacteria, while the multi-drug resistant strains were mainly H+R and H+R+S, and 16 strains were H+R+S+E+OF in initial treated patients. Conclusion The prevention and control situation of drug-resistant tuberculosis in Shanxi Province is still severe. The awareness of tuberculosis prevention and control dearing young and middle-aged people and farmers should be strengthen, standardize clinical drug use, and strengthen the health management of tuberculosis patients to avoid or reduce the occurrence of drug-resistant tuberculosis.
2023, 38(8): 929-933.
DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202301050562
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Objective To investigate the incidence of hepatitis E in Yantai, Shandong province, and evaluate the application of seasonal model in the prediction of the incidence of hepatitis E. Methods SAS 9.2 was used to analyze the incidence of hepatitis E in Yantai from 2007 to 2021 and seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models were constructed. The best model was selected to predict the incidence of hepatitis E from 2022 to 2023. Results The incidence of hepatitis E in Yantai showed a fluctuating decline trend with obvious seasonality, the incidence peak was during February-March and the sub-peak was during September-October. The optimal model of SARIMA (1,0,1) (0,1,1)12 was constructed after data smoothing, parameter estimation and model testing. The Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value was 10.034%, indicating good fitting effect, and the predication indicated that the monthly incidence of hepatitis E would show a fluctuating decline trend in the following two years, it would be about 0.206 per 100 000 by the end of 2023. The incidence of hepatitis E would be significantly higher in the coastal urban areas of Zhifu, Fushan, Laishan and Penglai than in other areas. Conclusion SARIMA model has a good short-term prediction ability for the incidence of hepatitis E. Attention needs to be paid to the hepatitis E prevention and control in the coastal areas of northern and eastern Yantai according to the prediction results.
2023, 38(8): 934-938.
DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.20208020340
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Objective To analyze the treatment outcome and influencing factors of elderly pulmonary tuberculosis(PTB) patients in Qinghai province, to provide scientific basis for elderly PTB prevention and treatment in Qinghai province. Methods The elderly PTB patients status treatment outcome was retrospectively studied in Qinghai province from 2015 to 2019, which was downloaded from the National Tuberculosis Management Information System. The influencing factors were analyzed by univariate χ2 test and unconditional multivariate logistic regression. Results 8 156 elderly PTB patients were reported in Qinghai province from 2015 to 2019, and 7 319 patients were successfully treated, the successful treatment rate showed an increasing trend (trend χ2=9.141, P<0.05). Unconditional multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that Tibetan (OR=1.456, 95%CI: 1.163–1.823), other minorities (OR=1.600, 95%CI: 1.299–1.971), other health examinations (OR=6.082, 95%CI: 1.449–25.523), non-severe patients (OR=1.830, 95%CI: 1.282–2.613), whole-course management (OR=2.523, 95%CI: 1.568–4.060), and newly treated patients (OR=2.111, 95%CI: 1.504–2.964) showed higher success successful treatment rates. Male (OR=0.711, 95%CI: 0.609–0.830), 70–80 years old age group (OR=0.620, 95%CI: 0.530–0.725), >80 year old group (OR=0.450, 95%CI: 0.325–0.622), syndrome recommendation (OR=0.481, 95%CI: 0.315–0.734), referral (OR=0.736, 95%CI: 0.610–0.888), non-systematic management (OR=0.065, 95%CI: 0.047–0.090), positive etiology (OR=0.567, 95%CI: 0.478–0.671), county level as the first diagnostic unit (OR=0.546, 95%CI: 0.342–0.873) patients showed lower successful treatment rates, and the differences were statistically significant (all P<0.05). Conclusion The elderly PTB successful treatment rate in Qinghai province was lower than whole population’s, but showed an increasing trend. More Attention should be paid to elderly, older age groups, Han nationality, patients with syndrome recommendation, referral, severe patients, self-medication, non-systematic management, re-treatment, positive etiology, and county level as the first diagnostic unit.
2023, 38(8): 939-943.
DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202209050391
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Objective To understand the distribution characteristics of avian influenza virus in the outside environment of poultry markets in Tongzhou district, Beijing, so as to provide scientific basis for future epidemic management. Methods Descriptiveepidemiological methods were used from March to May 2021 to carry out field epidemiological investigation based on avian influenza virus positive cases in poultry markets in Tongzhou district, and expanded sampling was carried out in wholesale and retail markets of the whole district. Results In 2021, there were 3 positive cases of avian influenza virus in poultry markets in Tongzhou district, involving two farmers’ markets and one wholesale market. From March to May, 40 samples were collected from each of the two farmers' markets. 74 samples were positive (30.83%), including 18 H7N9 samples (7.50%) and 56 H9N2 samples (23.33%). In March and May, expanded sampling was carried out in wholesale and retail markets in the whole region. A total of 327 food and environmental samples were collected from 23 markets in March, of which 58 were positive (17.74%). A total of 468 food and environmental samples were collected from 29 markets in May, of which 147 were positive (31.41%). In the expanded surveillance, 75.00% of the townships in the district tested positive results in March, and all townships in the district tested positive results in May. Conclusion H7N9 and H9N2 subtypes were mainly detected in this incident, and H5 subtypes were also detected in the subsequent expanded surveillance in the whole region. It is necessary to continue to strengthen the external environment monitoring of avian influenza, and promote the joint prevention and control mechanism among various departments and regions.
2023, 38(8): 944-950.
DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202302060021
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Objective To analyze the accuracy of Xpert MTB/RIF in the detection of rifampicin (RIF) resistance of Mycobacterium tuberculosis with different sputum bacterial loads (1+, 2+, 3+, 4+) and provide reference for the evaluation of clinical drug susceptibility test results. Methods Positive results of liquid BACTEC MGIT960 culture of 1936 sputum samples of suspected tuberculosis (TB) patients were retrospectively collected from the reference laboratory of Tianjin Tuberculosis Control Center from January 2020 to December 2021, and 16 samples were excluded from the analysis. The results of 1158 Xpert MTB/RIF positive samples were included in the analysis, and 1142 M. tuberculosis strains tested positive for Xpert MTB/RIF and positive for liquid BACTEC MGIT960 culture were tested in vitro for drug phenotype sensitivity (DST) by routine culture method. Software SPSS 19.0 was used for statistical analysis, and paired χ2 test was used. P<0.05 was considered statistically significant. Kappa test was used for the consistency of the two test methods. Results In 1936 liquid BACTEC MGIT960 positive culture samples, the positive screening rate of TB detection by Xpert MTB/RIF was 59.81%, and the bacterial load of the test ranged from 1+ to 4+. The detection rates of RIF resistance were 8.88%, 14.91%, 11.37% and 15.15%, respectively. Phenotypic DST was used as a reference standard for the detection of RIF resistance. When the bacterial loads ranged from 1+ to 4+, the coincidence rates of DST and Xpert MTB/RIF for RIF resistance detection were 95.39% (290/304), 95.96% (380/396), 96.79% (332/343) and 96.97% (96/99), respectively, there were no significant differences (trend χ2=1.069, P=0.785); the sensitivity of Xpert MTB/RIF to RIF resistance showed an increasing trend, which were 80.95% (17/21), 97.96% (40/41), 93.75% (30/32), 100.00%(12/12), respectively, with no significant differences (trend χ2=7.280, P=0.063); the specificity was 96.47% (273/283), 95.77% (340/355), 97.11% (302/311), 96.55% (84/87), respectively, and there were no significant differences (χ2=0.860, P=0.835); the positive predictive values were 62.96% (17/27), 72.73% (40/55), 76.92% (30/39), 80.00% (12/15), there were no significant differences (χ2=2.047, P=0.563); The negative predictive values were 98.56% (273/304), 99.71% (340/341), 99.34% (302/304),100.00% (84/84), the differences were significant (χ2=64.661, P<0.001). The kappa values of Xpert MTB/RIF with bacterial loads from 1+ to 4+ were 0.68, 0.81, 0.83 and 0.87, respectively. In the strains with different RIF detection results of phenotype DST and Xpert MTB/RIF, if the bacterial load was 1+, the consistency rate of RIF detection results with the melting curve was 7.14% (1/14), if the bacterial load range was 2+–4+, the consistency rates of RIF detection results with the melting curve were all 100%. Conclusion The sensitivity and specificity of Xpert MTB/RIF in the detection of RIF resistance under different bacterial loads were high, but the overall positive predictive value was low. When the bacterial load in sputum samples was ≤1+, the results of RIF resistance detection were generally consistent with the DST detection results, while when the bacterial loads ranged from 2+ to 4+, the results showed higher consistency with the DST detection results.
2023, 38(8): 951-954.
DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202211100498
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Objective To understand the epidemiologic characteristics of pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) in the elderly aged ≥ 60 years in Jiaxing, Zhejiang province, and provide evidence for the further improvement of pulmonary TB prevention and control in the elderly. Methods Based on the Tuberculosis Management Information System, the information of pulmonary TB cases in Jiaxing from 2011 to 2020 were collected for a descriptive epidemiological analysis on the distribution, detection way and diagnosis delay of pulmonary TB in the elderly in Jiaxing during 2011−2020. Results The average annual registration rate of pulmonary TB in the elderly (≥60 years old) in Jiaxing was 58.20/100 000, which was 1.75 times higher than that in those aged <60 years (33.30/100 000) (χ2=1108.686, P<0.05). The average annual registration rate of pulmonary TB with positive etiology in the elderly was 36.98/100 000, which was 2.58 times higher than that in those aged <60 years (14.33/100 000) (χ2=1885.435, P<0.05). The registration rates of pulmonary TB in men and women were 91.52/100 000 and 27.37/100 000, respectively, the rate was 3.34 times in men than in women (χ2=1448.531, P<0.05). The registered cases aged 60–64 accounted for the highest proportion (20.84%) and annual pulmonary TB registration rate of patients aged 80–84 was highest (87.18/100 000)(χ2=542.467, P<0.05). The proportion of retreated patients aged ≥60 years (9.28%) was 1.68 times higher than that of retreated patients aged <60 years (5.54%) (χ2=79.176, P<0.05). The proportion of diagnosis delay in age group ≥60 years (43.74%) was also higher than that in age group <60 years (39.14%), the difference was significant (χ2=30.424, P<0.05). Conclusion Although the registration rate of pulmonary TB in the elderly in Jiaxing showed a decreasing trend, the proportion of pulmonary TB cases with positive etiology was high, posing a serious challenge to the prevention and control efforts. It is important to strengthen the pulmonary TB prevention and control, reduce diagnosis delay and improve case finding in the elderly
2023, 38(8): 955-961.
DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202302200053
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Objective To investigate the prevalence of hepatitis B serum markers in different age groups, periods and birth cohorts in Chaoyang district of Beijing. Methods In 2010, 2015 and 2020, residents aged 1–75 years, who had been lived in Chaoyang District more than 6 months, were selected with multistage cluster random sampling to conduct questionnaire surveys, and blood samples (3–5 mL) were collected from them for the detections of hepatitis B virus surface antigen (HBsAg), hepatitis B virus surface antibody (HBsAb) and hepatitis B virus core antibody (HBcAb) respectively. The age-period-cohort model and intrinsic estimator algorithm were used to estimate the effects of age, period and cohort on HBsAg positive rate, HBsAb positive rate and hepatitis B infection rate respectively. Results The HBsAg positive rate in residents in Chaoyang in 2010, 2015 and 2020 showed no significant differences with the standardized rates of 2.61%, 2.50% and 2.52%, respectively (P=0.830, χ2=0.374). The age-period-cohort effect on hepatitis B virus infection was significant. The hepatitis B infection rate firstly increased and then decreased with age, with the highest rate in the 40~ years old group. The exposure risk of cohort decreased with birth years. Conclusion HBsAg positive rate was at a moderate level in Chaoyang. Hepatitis B exposure risk firstly increased and then decreased with age and decreased with cohort.
2023, 38(8): 962-965.
DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202208300385
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Objective To explore appropriate early warning method of varicella epidemic in Maanshan of Anhui province, and provide evidence for the timely prevention and control of varicella epidemic. Methods By using moving percentile method, cumulative sum control chart method, exponential weighting smoothing method, the surveillance data of varicella in Maanshan during 2016−2021 were analyzed, and the sensitivities, the specificities, the positive predictive values, the negative predictive values and Youden's indexes of the three methods were compared and evaluated. Results The cumulative sum control chart method (h=0.5, k=1.5) had the best early warning effect with the sensitivity and specificity of 100.00% respectively. The sensitivity and specificity of moving percentile method with P95 were 100.00%, 94.59%, respectively. The sensitivity and specificity of exponential weighting smoothing method (k=1, λ=0.15) were 99.33%, 89.19%, respectively. Conclusion In this study, the three early warning methods had good effects, but the moving percentile method and the cumulative sum control chart method were more suitable for the practical use at grass roots level.
2023, 38(8): 966-971.
DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202211100492
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Objective Compare the calculation results of health-adjusted life expectancy(HALE) of different health definitions (WHO questionnaire, EQ-5D scale and global burden of disease study). Methods In this study, the self-reported health data and mortality data of adult residents in Zhejiang province in 2019 were collected. Based on the before and after CHOPIT adjustment WHO questionnaire, EQ-5D questionnaire and the Zhejiang data of the 2019 global disease burden study (GBD 2019), the HALE was calculated and compared. Results The proportion of “no difficulty” in each dimension of WHO questionnaire respondents was basically more than 70.00%, and the dimension of self-care ability has reached more than 90.00%; The proportion of respondents who answered “healthy” in each dimension of the EQ-5D scale was more than 85.00%. After correction, the top effect of WHO's self-reported health level has been greatly improved, the life expectancy of adults in Zhejiang province was 64.44 years, the HALE after correction was 46.59 years. The HALE calculated by EQ-5D was 53.27 years, and the HALE calculated by GBD data was 55.55 years. Conclusion The results calculated by different methods are inconsistent, and there is an obvious top effect in the measurement method of the questionnaire. After correction by scenario simulation method, it can greatly reduce the top effect of WHO questionnaire, which is a better method to calculate more accurate health life expectancy.
2023, 38(8): 972-976.
DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202211250515
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Objective To understand the prevalence of Keshan disease and related risk factors in Zhangjiakou, Hebei province, and provide evidence for the accurate prevention and control of Keshan disease. Methods According to the endemic disease prevention and treatment plan (2019) and the Keshan disease surveillance plan in Hebei (2019 edition) , Keshan disease surveillance was conducted in villages or townships in 8 counties or districts where Keshan disease was endemic in Zhangjiakou during 2019–2021, in which clinical health examination, including electrocardiogram (ECG), cardiac ultrasound and X-ray chest examinations, was conducted for local residents. According to the national requirement of control and elimination of major endemic diseases (2019 edition), the prevalence of Keshan disease in the 8 counties or districts was evaluated. At the same time, in 2019, hair selenium and grain selenium content surveys were conducted in 7 Keshan disease endemic counties or districts and 2 non-Keshan disease endemic counties or districts in Zhangjiakou, and the hair samples of children and adults and main food samples were collected for selenium content testing. Results From 2019 to 2021, a total of 51 Keshan disease cases were found in 31 townships in Keshan disease endemic areas in Zhangjiakou, including 8 chronic cases (15.69%) and 43 potential cases (84.31%). No new Keshan disease cases was found. ECG examination was given for 1 487 suspected Keshan disease cases, and the abnormal rate was 39.35% (585/1487). Cardiac ultrasound examination was given for 724 suspected Keshan disease cases, and the abnormal rate was 20.72% (150/724). Chest X-ray examination was given for 91 suspected Keshan disease cases, and the cardiac enlargement rate was 53.85% (49/91). A total of 270 hair samples were collected, and the mean selenium content was (0.351±0.101) mg/kg, indicating a moderate level of selenium nutrition. The mean selenium content [(0.367±0.081) mg/kg] in population in the non-disease endemic area was higher than that in population in the disease endemic area [(0.346±0.106) mg/kg], and the difference was not significant (P>0.05). In 270 grain samples, the mean selenium content in non-disease endemic area [(0.050±0.070) mg/kg] was higher than that in the disease endemic area [(0.039±0.037) mg/kg], there was no significant difference (P>0.05). Conclusion The selenium nutrition in the population in Zhangjiakou has been improved, and the elimination of Keshan disease has met the requirement. In the future, comprehensive prevention and control measures should be continued to strengthen the treatment and management of chronic Keshan disease patients. It is suggested to include the treatment and follow-up of chronic Keshan disease patients into chronic disease management and medical insurance to improve the life quality and survival of patients with chronic Keshan disease.
2023, 38(8): 977-982.
DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202211180508
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Objective To reveal the etiological and molecular characteristics of a meningococcal disease case in Luzhou Sichuan province. Methods Real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) was used to detect the specific deoxyribonucleic acid fragments of Neisseria meningitidis isolated from the patient samples, and nest PCR was performed to amplify the house-keeping genes for sequencing. The strains isolated from close contacts of the meningococcal disease case were identified by latex aggregation, pulsed field gel electrophoresis, and drug susceptibility test and sequencing analysis were conducted. Results Th e strain isolated from the patient samples was identified as N. meningitidis serogroup W via real-time PCR, and three house-keeping genes were amplified by nest PCR. Two strains of N. meningitidis serogroup W isolated from the close contacts shared 100.00% homology in PFGE molecular typing. The typical strain designation was W: P1.5-3, 10-2: F1-68: ST-17462(CC4821). The resistance-associated genes analysis showed that isolates harbored the mutations in quinolones resistance related locus T91I of gyrA and in penicillin-binding protein 2 (PBP2) loci of penA-552. The isolates were resistant to penicillin [minimal inhibitory concentratio (MIC) 1.00 μg/mL], levofloxacin (MIC 0.12 μg/mL) and sulfamethoxazole (MIC 1/19 μg/mL). Conclusion The house-keeping genes of strain from patient samples were coincident with the isolated strains in this study. The meningococcal disease case was caused by N. meningitidis serogroup W: ST-17462 (CC4821). The N. meningitidis with new sequence type was pathogenic to humans.
2023, 38(8): 983-988.
DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202211160503
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Objective To understand the molecular characteristics of four strains of Pasteurella multocida isolated from clinical sources and provide reference for the clinical diagnosis, treatment and prevention and control of clinical infection of Pasteurella multocida. Methods Four strains of P. multocida (P46, P78, P79 and P96) were used for subspecies, capsular, lipopolysaccharide genotype identifications, multi-locus sequence typing (MLST) and virulence analysis by PCR amplification. The genetic relationship of the sequence type (ST) with global strains were analyzed. The susceptibilities of the isolates to antibiotics were tested with K-B method. Results Four strains all belonged to Pasteurella multocida subsp. multocida, capsular type A and lipopolysaccharide type L1. With MLST analysis, strain P46, P78, P79 and P96 were classified as ST20, ST7, ST7 and a new ST (ST429), respectively. All of the strains contained virulence genes fimA, hsf-2, pfhA, hgbA, hgbB, exbBD-tonB, sodC, soda, oma87, omph, nanB and nanH, but contained no ptfA and toxA genes. The genetic evolution analysis showed that four strains clustered with STs from Oceania. The results of antibiotic susceptibility test showed that all the strains were sensitive to ampicillin, penicillin, amoxicillin-clavulanate, ceftriaxone, moxifloxacin, levofloxacin, azithromycin, chloramphenicol, and trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole, but resistant to erythromycin. Conclusion The isolation of P. multocida from clinical source is increasing, and the clinical infection of P. multocida has become more serious. The molecular characterization of P. multocida should be encouraged to provide better understanding of P. multocida infection epidemics and evidence for its prevention and control.
2023, 38(8): 989-994.
DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202211110499
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Objective To understand the prevalence of hyperuricemia in adults in Hainan province and identify its influencing factors. Methods In this study, 36 administrative villages/committees in 2 urban areas and 4 rural areas in Hainan were selected for the survey by multi-stage cluster random sampling. Adults in each village or community randomly and equally selected as study subjects according to inclusion and exclusion criteria. The subjects all received questionnaire survey, body measurement and laboratory test. The results were statistically analyzed with software SPSS 26.0. Results A total of 3604 subjects were included in this study, and the average serum uric acid level was (325.19±87.22) μmol/L, the level was higher in men than in women (F=897.240, P<0.05) and in urban residents than in rural residents (F=24.385, P<0.05). The crude prevalence rate of hyperuricemia was 14.21%, and the weighted adjusted prevalence rate was 15.82%. The results of unconditional logistic regression analysis showed that being women [confidence interval (OR)=0.135, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.101–0.181)] was associated with reduction of hyperuricemia risk, and age ≥60 years (OR=1.388, 95%CI: 1.017–1.895), the frequency of drinking less than 3 d per month (OR=1.384, 95%CI: 1.044–1.834), 1–4 d per week (OR=1.452, 95%CI: 1.026–2.055), 5–7 d per week (OR=1.726, 95%CI: 1.278–2.330), overweight (OR=1.962, 95%CI: 1.189–3.238) or obesity (OR=3.088, 95%CI: 1.700–5.609) were associated with increase of hyperuricemia risk. In addition, the hyperuricemia patients complicated with hyperglycemia, dyslipidemia, hypertension, overweight or obesity accounted for 63.48%, 50.20%, 46.09% and 43.16% respectively. Conclusion The level of serum uric acid and the prevalence of hyperuricemia in adults in Hainan were higher than the national average, and most hyperuricemia patients were complicated with multiple forms of metabolic syndrome.
2023, 38(8): 995-999.
DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202210080434
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Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of injury inpatients in Guangzhou, Guangdong province, and provide information for injury prevention and control. Methods The records of inpatient diagnosed with injury from 2018 to 2020 were collected from 5 surveillance sentinel hospitals in Guangzhou. A descriptive epidemiological analysis was conducted on time distribution of injury, injury type and hospitalization cost and length by using Excel 2016 and software SPSS 22.0. Results A total of 18 978 cases of injury were investigated in hospitals, in which 11 794 cases were men (62.15%), the male to female ratio of the cases was at 1.64∶1. The injury cases in people aged >60 years (5 745 cases) accounted for highest proportion (30.27%) in total. The top three types of injuries were fall (6 957 cases, 36.66%), traffic accident (3 310 cases, 17.44%) and fire hazard and burn injury (3 235 cases, 17.05%). Injury mainly occurred in July, followed by January-April. Fire hazard and burn injury had the longest length of hospital stay for treatment [12 (8, 20) days] and highest healthcare costs per case [18209.06 (9332.41, 36711.7) yuan RMB], followed by those of fall [10 (6, 16) days], [15399.55 (6355.96, 37986.53) yuan RMB]. Conclusion The disease burden of injury is heavy in Guangzhou. It is necessary to carry out targeted health education and intervention based on the characteristics of injury.
2023, 38(8): 1000-1006.
DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202209150406
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Objective Through analysis of incidence and mortality data of laryngeal cancer in China from 1990−2019 in the Global Health Data Exchange (GHDX), the current trend of incidence and mortality was described. Kalman [ELM-SVR-GM(1,1)] fusion model predicts the future 5-year incidence and mortality data of laryngeal cancer. Methods Joinpoint Regression was used to calculate the Average Annual Percent Change (AAPC) of morbidity and mortality by gender and age, and the trend of morbidity and mortality of laryngeal cancer was described by category. Extreme learning machine model, support vector regression model, and Single variable first-order gray model were trained with the data from 1990 to 2015, and the results were fused by Kalman. The prediction effect of the single model and the fusion model was tested with the data from 2016 to 2019. Finally, the fusion model with the highest prediction accuracy was established based on the data from 1990 to 2019 to predict the morbidity and mortality of various types of laryngeal cancer from 2020 to 2024. Results From 1990 to 2019, the morbidity and mortality of laryngeal cancer increased year by year, morbidity increased from 1.19/100000 to 3.19/100000, and the mortality increased from 0.97/100000 to 1.42/100000. The morbidity and mortality of males were higher, with an average annual increase of 3.93% and 1.72%, respectively. The morbidity for men aged 15~59 increased at the fastest rate of 2.53% per year. Among the six sequence predictions, the Kalman[ELM-SVR-GM(1,1)] fusion model has the lowest average MRE, and its prediction data all fall within the 95%CI. Conclusion The morbidity and mortality of laryngeal cancer showed an upward trend, and the morbidity of males aged 15~49 increased rapidly. Compared with the single model, the Kalman [ELM-SVR-GM(1,1)] fusion model had a significant impact on the incidence of laryngeal cancer. It has high prediction accuracy and mortality prediction, and can provide a reliable prediction method for laryngeal cancer prevention and control.
2023, 38(8): 1007-1013.
DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202305150220
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Objective To characterize the transmission dynamics of an outbreak of acute gastroenteritis caused by a community-transmitted waterborne norovirus infection in a district in Beijing, and to evaluate the effectiveness of different prevention and control measures to explore the best prevention and control measures. Methods Statistical description of cases in a norovirus outbreak in Beijing 2019, are carried out while the Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious/asymptomatic-Removed-Water/food (SEIARW) dynamic model is performed at the same time. the impact of prevention and control measures including blocking waterborne transmission, health education, and requiring patients to stay at home and prohibiting gatherings and other isolation related measures. Results Without intervention, the effective reproduction number of norovirus in this outbreak was 9.32, the incidence rate could be 70.00%, and the duration of the outbreak was 45.26 days. The earlier water transmission is interrupted, the lower the incidence rate and the longer the duration of the epidemic. Health promotion measures can also lead to lower incidence rates and lower epidemic curves. Isolation-related measures could shorten the duration of the epidemic, and the higher the isolation rate, the lower the incidence rate, and the better the prevention and control effect of same-day measures than next-day measures.The best prevention and control effect can be achieved when measures to interrupt water transmission are taken on the day the outbreak is reported, along with health promotion and isolation on the day the outbreak is reported, and the isolation rate is 75.00%. Conclusion The earlier the measures to interrupt water transmission, continuous health education and early isolation can be effective in controlling outbreaks to varying degrees.
2023, 38(8): 1014-1017.
DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202303090096
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Objective To investigate an outbreak of acute gastroenteritis caused by norovirus in an primary school in Jinghong, Yunnan province, and provide evidence for the prevention and control of norovirus infection. Methods Field epidemiological survey and case survey were conducted to collect the basic information of the school and case information in Jinghong, Yunnan province. Anal swabs of the cases, food and drinking water samples were collected for enterovirus nucleic acid detection. The comparison of the rates were done by χ2 test. Results During February 19–22 , 2023, a total of 24 confirmed cases of acute gastroenteritis were reported, including 16 girls and 8 boys, with an attack rate of 4.05%. The attack rate was 5.13% in girl students and 2.85% in boy students, the difference was not significant (χ2=1.981, P=0.159). The epidemic curve indicated a point source outbreak, 14 cases occurred in grade 4, accounting for 58.33%. The difference was significant compared with other grades (χ2= 15.563, P=0.008). Three classes with more cases were all distributed on the left side of the second floor of the teaching building, the difference was significant compared with other classes (χ2=27.449, P=0.002). The main symptoms were diarrhea (100.00%), abdominal pain (95.83%). Case-control study showed that failure to wash hands after pressing button of water container was the main factor causing the spread of the epidemic, showing a statistical association with the incidence of the disease (OR=12.14). In 32 anal swabs, 7 were positive for norovirus (4 were positive for GⅡand 3 were positive for GⅠ). Conclusion This outbreak might be caused by co-infection of norovirus GⅠand GⅡ imported by students returning from vacation and spread due to poor hand hygiene of students in dry season.
2023, 38(8): 1018-1018.
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CN 11-2928/R
ISSN 1003-9961
Established in:1986 , Monthly
Responsible Institution:National Health Commission of the People's Republic of China
Sponsor: Editorial Board of Disease Surveillance,National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention,Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention
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