涂文校, 周蕾, 王锐, 廖巧红, 邢薇佳, 周航, 杨曼尼, 袁媛, 雷苏文, 孟玲, 洪志恒, 张甜, 赵梦娇, 倪大新. 2013年6月全国突发公共卫生事件及需关注的传染病风险评估[J]. 疾病监测, 2013, 28(6): 424-428. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2013.6.003
引用本文: 涂文校, 周蕾, 王锐, 廖巧红, 邢薇佳, 周航, 杨曼尼, 袁媛, 雷苏文, 孟玲, 洪志恒, 张甜, 赵梦娇, 倪大新. 2013年6月全国突发公共卫生事件及需关注的传染病风险评估[J]. 疾病监测, 2013, 28(6): 424-428. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2013.6.003
CHU Wen-Jiao, Zhou-Lei, Wang-Dui, Liao-Qiao-Gong, Geng-Wei-Jia, Zhou-Hang, Yang-Man-Ni, Yuan-Yuan, Lei-Su-Wen, Meng-Ling, Hong-Zhi-Heng, Zhang-Tian, Diao-Meng-Jiao, Ni-Da-Xin. Risk assessment of public health emergency and concerned infectious diseases in China, June 2013[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2013, 28(6): 424-428. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2013.6.003
Citation: CHU Wen-Jiao, Zhou-Lei, Wang-Dui, Liao-Qiao-Gong, Geng-Wei-Jia, Zhou-Hang, Yang-Man-Ni, Yuan-Yuan, Lei-Su-Wen, Meng-Ling, Hong-Zhi-Heng, Zhang-Tian, Diao-Meng-Jiao, Ni-Da-Xin. Risk assessment of public health emergency and concerned infectious diseases in China, June 2013[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2013, 28(6): 424-428. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2013.6.003

2013年6月全国突发公共卫生事件及需关注的传染病风险评估

Risk assessment of public health emergency and concerned infectious diseases in China, June 2013

  • 摘要: 目的 评估2013年6月我国突发公共卫生事件及需要关注的传染病风险。 方法 根据全国突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种监测资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法进行评估。 结果 2013年1-5月全国突发公共卫生事件报告趋势和往年类似,与2012年同期基本持平,低于20052011年平均水平;2013年1-5月法定传染病整体疫情比去年同期下降11%,但麻疹、流行性出血热、手足口病等一直呈高发态势。2013年6月将是全年突发公共卫生事件发生频率较高的时期之一,但发生水平应低于4、5月,同时6月后逐步进入肠道传染病和虫媒传染病高发季节;人感染H7N9禽流感仍有出现个别散在病例的可能性;全国手足口病整体发病水平将呈高发态势;霍乱进入流行季节,不排除出现局部暴发的可能;登革热和疟疾病例仍将以归国人员输入性病例为主;麻疹、流行性出血热疫情目前已过了发病高峰季节。食物中毒事件可能进一步上升。进入2013年5月以来,国际上中东呼吸综合征病例数较前明显增多,报告病例的国家和地区范围有所扩大。 结论 预计2013年6月我国的突发公共卫生事件及传染病疫情发生态势与往年6月类似,需重点关注中东呼吸综合征、人感染H7N9禽流感、手足口病和食物中毒。

     

    Abstract: Objective Assess the risk of public health emergency and concerned infectious diseases in China, June 2013. Methods Semi-structured interviews and discussions among subject matter experts based on surveillance data and public institute bulletins, et al. Results The trend and level of national public health emergency from January to May 2013, were similar as the same period of 2012, and lower than the average of 20052011. National notifiable infectious diseases from January to May 2013 were lower than the same period of 2012 by 11%, but measles, hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS), hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) were still be at high level. June 2013 will be at a high frequency of emergent public health events throughout the year, but the level should be lower than in April and May 2013. June 2013 would be the high epidemic season for intestinal infectious diseases and insect-borne infectious disease. There might be still a few scattered cases of human infection with influenza A(H7N9); the overall level of HFMD would still be at high level; the cholera could not rule out the possibility of local outbreaks; imported cases of dengue and malaria will still be the dominant of the total cases; measles, and HFRS had past their peak seasons. Food poisoning events may by still on the rise. Since May 2013, the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) cases had been significantly increasing, and the countries and regions with reporting cases had widened.Conclusion It is expected that the national public health emergencies and epidemic situation of infectious diseases in June 2013, would be similar as the June before. We need to strengthen surveillance and preparedness for MERS, H7N9, HFMD and food poisoning.

     

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