吴昊澄, 林君芬, 吴晨, 鲁琴宝, 曾蓓蓓. 浙江省手足口病优势病原预测及发病规模分析[J]. 疾病监测, 2015, 30(7): 578-581. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2015.07.013
引用本文: 吴昊澄, 林君芬, 吴晨, 鲁琴宝, 曾蓓蓓. 浙江省手足口病优势病原预测及发病规模分析[J]. 疾病监测, 2015, 30(7): 578-581. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2015.07.013
WU Hao-cheng, LIN Jun-fen, WU Chen, LU Qin-bao, ZENG Bei-bei. Predication of predominant pathogen and incidence of hand foot and mouth disease in Zhejiang[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2015, 30(7): 578-581. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2015.07.013
Citation: WU Hao-cheng, LIN Jun-fen, WU Chen, LU Qin-bao, ZENG Bei-bei. Predication of predominant pathogen and incidence of hand foot and mouth disease in Zhejiang[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2015, 30(7): 578-581. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2015.07.013

浙江省手足口病优势病原预测及发病规模分析

Predication of predominant pathogen and incidence of hand foot and mouth disease in Zhejiang

  • 摘要: 目的 预测手足口病优势病原和发病规模,为疫情研判和防控提供依据。方法 用聚类分析方法对月度手足口病病原构成进行聚类,以聚类后的类别作为时间点状态,建立转移概率矩阵,预测最有可能出现的手足口病病原构成比例,并以此估计重症死亡的规模。结果 手足口病病原构成聚类为6类,各类间病原构成比例、重症数和死亡数差异均有统计学意义(P0.001),2014年11月手足口病病原构成较大可能处于状态6。结论 2014年11月手足口病病原构成有88.9%的可能以其他肠道病毒为主,出现死亡病例概率低,而出现1~3例重症病例的可能性较大。

     

    Abstract: Objective To predict the predominant pathogen and incidence of hand foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in Zhejiang, and provide evidence for the prevention and control of HFMD. Methods Cluster analysis was conducted on the monthly proportions of the pathogens causing HFMD in Zhejiang, and transition probability matrix was established to predict HFMD pathogen proportions, then the model to estimate the incidences of HFMD was established. Results Six categories of HFMD pathogen proportion were classified, the differences in pathogen proportion, severe case number and death number among different categories were statistical significant (P0.001). Category 6 would be mostly likely to be observed in November 2014. Conclusion The probability of other enterovirus being predominant in November 2014 would be 88.9%, the probability of death would be low, but 1-3 severe cases might occur.

     

/

返回文章
返回