Epidemiology of bacillary dysentery in Huzhou, Zhejiang, 1995-2007
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摘要: 目的了解浙江省湖州市1995-2007年细菌性痢疾（菌痢）的流行特征和发病趋势。 方法采用描述流行病学方法对1995-2007年菌痢发病人群进行分析；并利用圆形分布，得出发病高峰日期；参照指数曲线法，建立菌痢预测模型方程公式，并对相关数据进行预测拟合。结果湖州市1995-2007年菌痢平均发病率为58.80/10万；以湖州市区(原湖州市郊区和城区)发病率最高，病例以散居儿童、农民为主，发病主要集中在夏秋季，高峰日为8月25日；获得指数曲线预测模型方程=Ie/Isup242.5304－0.1192Ix/I/sup，可用于预测菌痢发病趋势。结论1995年以来，湖州市菌痢发病呈逐年下降趋势，分析结果表明应针对儿童发病多、夏秋季发病多等特点采取针对性综合防治措施，防止暴发疫情的发生，把菌痢发病率控制在较低水平。Abstract: ObjectiveTo analyze the epidemiological features and incidence trend of bacillary dysentery in Huzhou from 1995 to 2007. MethodsDescriptive analysis was conducted on the data of bacillary dysentery during this period. Circular distribution was used to obtain the peak time of incidence and the exponential-curve model was developed to forecast the incidence trend of bacillary dysentery. ResultsThe average incidence rate of bacillus dysentery was 58.80/lakh from 1995 to 2007 and the incidence rate in urban area was highest. Most cases were scattered children and people from rural area. Most cases occurred in summer and autumn and the incidence peaked on August 25. The exponential-curve model was=Ie/Isup242.5304－0.1192Ix/I/sup, which could be used to forecast the incidence trend of bacillary dysentery. ConclusionFrom 1995, the incidence rate of bacillary dysentery declined year by year in Huzhou. Comprehensive control measure should be taken toreduce the incidence in children and in summer and autumn.
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Key words:
- bacillary dysentery /
- epidemiological feature /
- trend /
- forecast
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