目的 为科学有效地预警流行性感冒(流感)的爆发和流行,制定符合深圳市的流感监测基线币Ⅱ警戒曲线.方法 收集深圳市第一人民医院、深圳市妇幼保健院2003-2006年的流感监测资料,以周为单位,对流感样病例百分比ILI(%)进行统计分析,以确定基线和警戒曲线.结果 深圳市流感监测结果 可靠,基线值为5.95%,警戒曲线具有较好的灵敏度和季节性,能及时发现异常值.结论 深圳市的流感监测参考线具有较好的灵敏性和季节性,能起到一定预警作用.
Objective The study was conducted to establish the baseline and the alert curve of influenza surveillance according to the conditions in Shenzhen to make scientific and effective earl ywarning of influenza epidemic. Methods The influenza surveillance data in the First People'sHospital of Shenzhen and the Municipal Children and Women Hospital from 2003 to 2006 were collected for the statistical analysis of the percentage of influenza- like cases, ILI (%), on a weekly basis to determine the baseline and alert curve. Results The surveillance results were reliable. Thebaseline value was 5.95%, and the alert curve had good sensitivity and seasonality, being timely infinding unusual value. Conclusion The reference lines of the influenza surveillance in Shenzhen havegood sensitivity and seasonality. They play certain roles in early warning.