目的 评估2017年4月国内外突发公共卫生事件及需要关注传染病的风险。方法 根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息，采用专家会商法，并通过视频会议形式邀请省（直辖市、自治区）疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。结果 根据近期传染病和突发公共卫生事件监测数据，结合既往突发公共卫生事件发生情况及传染病流行特点，预计4月全国报告事件数和病例数仍将维持在较高水平，事件类别主要以发生在学校的手足口病、水痘、流行性感冒、流行性腮腺炎、其他感染性腹泻病等传染病事件为主。4月人感染H7N9禽流感发病强度预计进一步降低，但仍可能高于往年同期，且不排除出现H7N9禽流感聚集性病例以及人感染其他亚型动物流感病毒病例的可能。流行性感冒、水痘、流行性腮腺炎等呼吸道传染病仍将处于较高水平。全国手足口病流行强度将逐渐增加。诺如病毒感染暴发疫情仍将持续发生，学校为主要发生场所。近期我国仍有可能出现寨卡病毒病、黄热病、登革热等蚊媒传播传染病的输入性病例，南方重点省份存在输入后发生本地传播或小规模聚集性病例的可能，但出现较大规模暴发疫情的可能性低。结论 2017年4月我国的突发公共卫生事件及传染病疫情发生态势与往年相似，将维持在较高水平；需关注人感染禽流感、流行性感冒、手足口病、诺如病毒感染、寨卡病毒病、黄热病、登革热等传染病疫情引发的公共卫生风险。
Objective To assess the risks of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China in April 2017. Methods An internet based expert counsel was conducted to analyze the surveillance data of public health emergencies and priority communicable diseases in China reported through different channels, and the experts in all the provincial centers for disease control and prevention attended this video conference. Results According to the analysis of recent and previous surveillance data of communicable diseases and public health emergencies, it is predicted that the incidence of public health emergencies or communicable diseases in April 2017 would remain at a high level. Most public health emergencies in April would be the outbreaks of hand foot and mouth disease (HFMD), varicella, influenza, mumps and other infectious diarrheal diseases in schools. The incidence of human infection with avian influenza A (H7N9) virus would continue to decline, but possibly higher than previous years, and there is a possibility of the incidence of clusters of H7N9 avian virus influenza and other avian influenza virus infections. The incidence of respiratory diseases, such as seasonal influenza, varicella and mumps, would remain at a high level. The incidence of HFMD would increase gradually. The outbreaks of norovirus infection would continue to occur, mainly in schools. The risk of importation of vector bone diseases, including Zika virus disease, yellow fever and dengue fever, still exists, the transmission or small clusters following the importation might occur in some province in southern China, but the risk of large scale transmission is low. Conclusion The incidence of public health emergencies or communicable diseases in April 2017 would remain at a high level, similar to the previous years. Close attention should be paid to the prevention and control of human infection with avian influenza virus, seasonal influenza, HFMD, norovirus infection, Zika virus disease, yellow fever and dengue fever.