目的 评估2018年2月在我国大陆地区发生或者可能由境外输入的突发公共卫生事件风险。方法 根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息，采用专家会商法，并通过视频会议形式邀请省（自治区、直辖市）疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。结果 根据近期传染病和突发公共卫生事件监测数据，结合既往突发公共卫生事件发生情况及传染病流行特点，预计2月主要以流行性感冒、人感染禽流感、其他感染性腹泻病等传染病事件为主。流行性感冒活动仍处于季节性流行高峰期，但已开始出现下降趋势。我国内地可能将继续出现人感染H7N9及其他亚型禽流感或动物流感散发病例。病毒性感染性腹泻病暴发可能会继续发生。非职业性一氧化碳中毒正处于高发季节。结论 预计2018年2月我国的突发公共卫生事件数将有所下降；需重点关注流行性感冒、人感染禽流感；一般关注其他感染性腹泻病和非职业性一氧化碳中毒。
Objective To assess the risk of public health emergencies,both indigenous ones and imported ones,which might occur in the mainland of China in February 2018. Methods An internet based expert counsel was conducted to analyze the surveillance data of public health emergencies and priority communicable diseases in China reported through different channels,and the experts in all the provincial centers for disease control and prevention attended this video conference. Results According to the analysis of recent and previous surveillance data of communicable diseases and public health emergencies,it is predicted that the public health emergencies in February would be mainly communicable disease epidemics,such as seasonal influenza,human infection with avian influenza virus and viral diarrhoea. The activity of seasonal influenza would still be at high level,but the downtrend has been observed. The sporadic cases of human infection with H7N9 or other avian influenza viruses and viral diarrhea outbreaks caused by norovirus and other enteroviruses might continue to occur. It is still the high incidence season of non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning. Conclusion It is predicted that the incidence of public health emergencies would decline in China in February 2018. Close attention should be paid to seasonal influenza and human infection with avian influenza viruses,and attention should be paid to the outbreaks of viral diarrhoea and non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning.