Abstract:
Objective To understand the epidemiological characteristics of scarlet fever and risk factors in Beijing from 2010 to 2016.
Methods Descriptive epidemiologic analysis was conducted on the spatial, temporal and population distributions of the scarlet fever cases reported through national infectious disease reporting and management system from 2010 to 2016. The early warning detection model of CUSUM was used to detect the start of scarlet fever epidemic. Negative binominal regression was used to analyze risk factors of scarlet fever.
Results A total of 23 328 scarlet fever cases were reported in Beijing from 2010 to 2016, with the incidence rates ranging from 8.85/100 000 to 31.37/100 000. The incidence was higher in 2011 and 2014 than in other years. More cases were reported in summer and winter, and the epidemic of scarlet fever started in March and September respectively in a year. Most cases were children in child care settings and students of primary schools. High incidences were reported in Fengtai, Yanqing, Tongzhou, Shijingshan and Dongcheng districts. The risk was lower in women than in men, the RR was 0.649(95%CI: 0.567–0.743). Compared with the risk in age group 0 year, theRR in age groups 3 years, 6 years and 15 years were 11.885 (95%CI: 9.882–14.783), 5.745 (95%CI: 4.786–6.896) and 0.005 (95%CI: 0.004–0.006) respectively. The difference in the risk to be attacked by scarlet fever between 2010 and 2011–2016 had significance (allRR>1). The risk was highest in 2011.
Conclusion The epidemics of scarlet fever started in March and in September respectively in Beijing during 2010–2016, which mainly affected children in child care settings and students of primary schools. Gender specific difference in scarlet fever incidence was observed. It is necessary to strengthen the disease surveillance and health care in high incidence season of scarlet fever in child care settings and primary schools for the effective prevention of the disease.