张漫, 杨兴华, 吴双胜, 杨鹏, 王全意. 2010-2016年北京市猩红热流行状况及其危险因素分析[J]. 疾病监测, 2018, 33(7): 580-584. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2018.07.011
引用本文: 张漫, 杨兴华, 吴双胜, 杨鹏, 王全意. 2010-2016年北京市猩红热流行状况及其危险因素分析[J]. 疾病监测, 2018, 33(7): 580-584. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2018.07.011
Man Zhang, Xinghua Yang, Shuangsheng Wu, Peng Yang, Quanyi Wang. Epidemiological characteristics of scarlet fever and risk factors in Beijing, 2010-2016[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2018, 33(7): 580-584. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2018.07.011
Citation: Man Zhang, Xinghua Yang, Shuangsheng Wu, Peng Yang, Quanyi Wang. Epidemiological characteristics of scarlet fever and risk factors in Beijing, 2010-2016[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2018, 33(7): 580-584. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2018.07.011

2010-2016年北京市猩红热流行状况及其危险因素分析

Epidemiological characteristics of scarlet fever and risk factors in Beijing, 2010-2016

  • 摘要:
    目的 分析北京市2010 — 2016年猩红热的流行特征及其危险因素,为制定有效的防控措施提供依据。
    方法 应用描述性流行病学分析方法分析北京市猩红热病例流行病学特征;应用累计和CUSUM模型探测猩红热流行的起始时间、负二项回归分析发病的影响因素。
    结果 2010 — 2016年北京市共报告猩红热病例23 328例,报告发病率为8.85/10万 ~ 31.37/10万;2011年和2014年有2个发病高峰;呈夏、冬两季高发特点;流行起始时间最早为每年的3月和9月;病例以幼托儿童和学生为主;报告发病率较高的地区为丰台、延庆、通州、石景山和东城区;女性发病风险与男性相比 RR值为0.649(95%CI:0.567 ~ 0.743);3 ~、6 ~、15 ~ 岁年龄组与0 ~ 岁年龄组猩红热发病情况相比,RR值分别为11.885(95%CI:9.882 ~ 14.783)、5.745(95%CI:4.786 ~ 6.896)、0.005(95%CI:0.004~0.006);2011 — 2016年猩红热的发病风险与2010年相比差异有统计学意义( RR值均>1),以2011年最高。
    结论 北京市2010 — 2016年猩红热流行的起始时间在每年的3月和9月,以学生和幼托儿童为发病的重点人群,发病与性别有关。应在猩红热高发季节前对托幼机构和学校加强疫情监测和健康防治,以有效预防疾病流行。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To understand the epidemiological characteristics of scarlet fever and risk factors in Beijing from 2010 to 2016.
    Methods Descriptive epidemiologic analysis was conducted on the spatial, temporal and population distributions of the scarlet fever cases reported through national infectious disease reporting and management system from 2010 to 2016. The early warning detection model of CUSUM was used to detect the start of scarlet fever epidemic. Negative binominal regression was used to analyze risk factors of scarlet fever.
    Results A total of 23 328 scarlet fever cases were reported in Beijing from 2010 to 2016, with the incidence rates ranging from 8.85/100 000 to 31.37/100 000. The incidence was higher in 2011 and 2014 than in other years. More cases were reported in summer and winter, and the epidemic of scarlet fever started in March and September respectively in a year. Most cases were children in child care settings and students of primary schools. High incidences were reported in Fengtai, Yanqing, Tongzhou, Shijingshan and Dongcheng districts. The risk was lower in women than in men, the RR was 0.649(95%CI: 0.567–0.743). Compared with the risk in age group 0 year, theRR in age groups 3 years, 6 years and 15 years were 11.885 (95%CI: 9.882–14.783), 5.745 (95%CI: 4.786–6.896) and 0.005 (95%CI: 0.004–0.006) respectively. The difference in the risk to be attacked by scarlet fever between 2010 and 2011–2016 had significance (allRR>1). The risk was highest in 2011.
    Conclusion The epidemics of scarlet fever started in March and in September respectively in Beijing during 2010–2016, which mainly affected children in child care settings and students of primary schools. Gender specific difference in scarlet fever incidence was observed. It is necessary to strengthen the disease surveillance and health care in high incidence season of scarlet fever in child care settings and primary schools for the effective prevention of the disease.

     

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