刘天, 陈红缨, 姚梦雷, 黄淑琼, 黄继贵, 毛安禄, 杨雯雯. 2016年湖北省手足口病时空分布特征分析[J]. 疾病监测, 2018, 33(8): 653-658. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2018.08.011
引用本文: 刘天, 陈红缨, 姚梦雷, 黄淑琼, 黄继贵, 毛安禄, 杨雯雯. 2016年湖北省手足口病时空分布特征分析[J]. 疾病监测, 2018, 33(8): 653-658. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2018.08.011
Tian Liu, Hongying Chen, Menglei Yao, Shuqiong Huang, Jigui Huang, Anlu Mao, Wenwen Yang. Spatial-temporal distribution of hand, foot and mouth disease in Hubei, 2016[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2018, 33(8): 653-658. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2018.08.011
Citation: Tian Liu, Hongying Chen, Menglei Yao, Shuqiong Huang, Jigui Huang, Anlu Mao, Wenwen Yang. Spatial-temporal distribution of hand, foot and mouth disease in Hubei, 2016[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2018, 33(8): 653-658. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2018.08.011

2016年湖北省手足口病时空分布特征分析

Spatial-temporal distribution of hand, foot and mouth disease in Hubei, 2016

  • 摘要:
    目的 探讨2016年湖北省手足口病的空间分布特征及时空聚集性。
    方法 采用趋势面分析、空间自相关和空间扫描方法对2016年湖北省手足口病监测的县(市、区)级层面数据进行时空统计分析。
    结果 趋势面分析得出湖北省2016年手足口病发病率自西向东、由南向北均呈轻微“U”形;全局自相关发现2016年湖北省手足口病发病呈空间正相关(Moran′s I=0.278,P=0.001);局部自相关分析表明,手足口病高值聚集区和热点区域主要集中在东南部地区,包括大冶市、黄州区、铁山区、下陆区、黄石港区、鄂城区、梁子湖区和华容区等区。通过空间扫描统计得到2个有统计学意义的手足口病高发病率聚集区域,聚集时间为4 — 7月,聚集地区为湖北省西北部及东南部。
    结论 湖北省手足口病存在时空聚集性,应以此为指导,确定手足口病的重点防控区域,优化卫生资源配置。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To explore the spatial distribution and spatial-temporal clustering of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in Hubei province in 2016.
    Methods Trend surface analysis, spatial autocorrelation and spatial-temporal scanning analysis were conducted to understand the spatial-temporal distribution of HFMD at county/district level in Hubei.
    Results Trend analysis showed that an U-type curve could be used to describe the HFMD distribution from the south to the north and from the west to the east in Hubei. A positive autocorrelation of HFMD spatial distribution was observed in 2016 (Moran′sI=0.278, P=0.001). Local spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that the highly clustered and hot spot areas were in southeastern Hubei, including Daye, Huangzhou, Tieshan, Xialu, Huangshigang, Echeng, Liangzihu and Huarong. Two statistically significant HFMD clusters, which occurred in southeastern and northwestern Hubei from April to July, were identified by spatial-temporal scan statistics.
    Conclusion Obvious spatial-temporal clustering of HFMD was found in Hubei. It is necessary to conduct targeted HFMD prevention and control in the key areas identified and improve the allocation of public health resources.

     

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