洪志恒, 李超, 杨静, 靳淼, 黎丹, 任婧寰, 丁凡, 孟玲, 涂文校, 施国庆, 向妮娟. 2018年11月中国大陆需关注的突发公共卫生事件风险评估[J]. 疾病监测, 2018, 33(11): 887-890. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2018.11.003
引用本文: 洪志恒, 李超, 杨静, 靳淼, 黎丹, 任婧寰, 丁凡, 孟玲, 涂文校, 施国庆, 向妮娟. 2018年11月中国大陆需关注的突发公共卫生事件风险评估[J]. 疾病监测, 2018, 33(11): 887-890. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2018.11.003
Zhiheng Hong, Chao Li, Jing Yang, Miao Jin, Dan Li, Jinghuan Ren, Fan Ding, Ling Meng, Wenxiao Tu, Guoqing Shi, Nijuan Xiang. Risk assessment of public health emergencies concerned in the mainland of China, November 2018[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2018, 33(11): 887-890. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2018.11.003
Citation: Zhiheng Hong, Chao Li, Jing Yang, Miao Jin, Dan Li, Jinghuan Ren, Fan Ding, Ling Meng, Wenxiao Tu, Guoqing Shi, Nijuan Xiang. Risk assessment of public health emergencies concerned in the mainland of China, November 2018[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2018, 33(11): 887-890. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2018.11.003

2018年11月中国大陆需关注的突发公共卫生事件风险评估

Risk assessment of public health emergencies concerned in the mainland of China, November 2018

  • 摘要:
    目的 评估2018年11月在我国大陆地区发生或者可能由境外输入的突发公共卫生事件风险。
    方法 根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法,并通过视频会议形式邀请省(自治区、直辖市)疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。
    结果 总体上,预计11月突发公共卫生事件的报告数将比10月有所上升,可能以水痘、流行性感冒、流行性腮腺炎、其他感染性腹泻病及手足口病等事件为主。 人感染禽流感可能会出现散发病例。流行性感冒等呼吸道传染病也将出现季节性升高。 近期刚果民主共和国埃博拉病毒病疫情形势仍然严峻。 11月非职业性一氧化碳中毒事件将进入高发时期。
    结论 需要重点关注人感染禽流感、非职业性一氧化碳中毒,对于流行性感冒、诺如病毒感染性腹泻及刚果埃博拉病毒病疫情予以一般关注。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To assess the risk of public health emergencies, both the indigenous ones and the imported ones, which might occur in the mainland of China in November 2018.
    Methods An internet based expert counsel was conducted to analyze the surveillance data of public health emergencies and priority communicable diseases in China reported through different channels, and the experts in all the provincial centers for disease control and prevention attended this meeting through video conference.
    Results Overall, it is predicted that the number of public health emergencies reported in November would increase compared with October, which might be mainly the epidemics of varicella, seasonal influenza, mumps, other infectious diarrheal diseases and hand foot and mouth disease. Sporadic cases of human infected with avian influenza virus might occur. The incidence of respiratory infections, such as seasonal influenza, would increase. The epidemic of Ebola virus disease in the Democratic Republic of Congo is still serious. The incidence of non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning would become higher in November.
    Conclusion It is necessary to pay close attention to human infection with avian influenza virus and non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning, and pay general attention to seasonal influenza, norovirus caused infectious diarrhea and Ebola virus disease in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

     

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