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李凤英, 马婷, 罗文瑞, 刘美宁, 马波, 张荣强. 2005－2017年陕西省咸阳市乙型肝炎流行趋势分析及预测模型的建立[J]. 疾病监测, 2019, 34(2): 137-140. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2019.02.011
引用本文: 李凤英, 马婷, 罗文瑞, 刘美宁, 马波, 张荣强. 2005－2017年陕西省咸阳市乙型肝炎流行趋势分析及预测模型的建立[J]. 疾病监测, 2019, 34(2): 137-140. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2019.02.011
shu
Fengying Li, Ting Ma, Wenrui Luo, Meining Liu, Bo Ma, Rongqiang Zhang. Prevalence of hepatitis B and establishment of prediction model in Xianyang, Shaanxi, 2005–2017[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2019, 34(2): 137-140. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2019.02.011
Citation: Fengying Li, Ting Ma, Wenrui Luo, Meining Liu, Bo Ma, Rongqiang Zhang. Prevalence of hepatitis B and establishment of prediction model in Xianyang, Shaanxi, 2005–2017[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2019, 34(2): 137-140. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2019.02.011
shu

2005－2017年陕西省咸阳市乙型肝炎流行趋势分析及预测模型的建立

Prevalence of hepatitis B and establishment of prediction model in Xianyang, Shaanxi, 2005–2017

    摘要
  • 摘要:
    目的对咸阳市2005 — 2017年乙型肝炎（乙肝）病例的报告情况进行分析总结，掌握咸阳市乙肝的流行规律，通过建立合适的预测模型，对咸阳市2018年的乙肝疫情情况进行预测，以便采取适当的防控措施。
    方法收集2005 — 2017年中国疾病预防控制信息系统中咸阳市的乙肝报告病例个案资料，采用描述性流行病学方法对乙肝的疫情情况进行归纳分析，运用SAS 9.2软件的时间序列预测系统建立咸阳市乙肝疫情最佳预警模型，并采用2018年的疫情资料对该模型进行验证。
    结果2005 — 2017年咸阳市共报告乙肝病例48 184例，其中男性23 716例，女性24 468例，男女性别比约为1∶1；其中临床诊断病例9 325例（19.35%），确诊病例38 859例（80.65%）。 年龄集中在20 ~ 60岁之间，职业以农民为主，报告病例数无明显季节性。 建立了咸阳市乙肝的月报告疫情预警系统，咸阳市2005 — 2017年乙肝的月报告数接近Log Winters Method-Addictive模型趋势。
    结论预测模型显示咸阳市2018年乙肝的报告病例数较往年呈下降趋势，但仍需关注重点人群的乙肝疫苗查漏补种工作，做好主动预防工作，以控制乙肝的发病率。

     

    Abstract:
    ObjectiveTo analyze the prevalence of hepatitis B in Xianyang of Shaanxi province from 2005 to 2017, and establish a suitable prediction model for hepatitis B in Xianyang in 2018.
    MethodsThe data of reported cases of hepatitis B in Xianyang from 2005 to 2017 were collected. Descriptive epidemiological method was used to analyze the prevalence of hepatitis B and the time series prediction system of SAS 9.2 software was used to establish the best prediction model of hepatitis B incidence in Xianyang. The model was verified by using the incidence data of hepatitis B in Xianyang in 2018.
    ResultsA total of 48 184 cases of hepatitis B were reported in Xianyang from 2005 to 2017, including 9 325 clinically diagnosed cases (19.35%) and 38 859 laboratory confirmed cases (80.65%), among these cases, 23 716 occurred in males and 24 468 occurred in females, with a sex ratio of approximately 1∶1. The cases were distributed in people aged 20–60 years. Most cases were farmers, and there was no obvious seasonality. The SAS 9.2 software time series forecasting system was used to establish the monthly incidence prediction system of hepatitis B in Xianyang. The best prediction model established for the monthly incidence of hepatitis B in Xianyang from 2005 to 2017 was Log Winters Method-Addictive model.
    ConclusionThe result of the prediction indicated that he reported cases of hepatitis B would decline in Xianyang in 2018. However, it is still necessary to strengthen the hepatitis B vaccination in populations at high risk is still needed to reduce the incidence of hepatitis B.

     

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