Risk assessment of public health emergencies concerned in the mainland of China, September 2019
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摘要:
目的评估2019年9月在我国大陆地区发生或者可能由境外输入的突发公共卫生事件风险。 方法根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息，采用专家会商法，并通过视频会议形式邀请省（自治区、直辖市）疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。 结果总体上，预计9月突发公共卫生事件的报告数将较8月略有上升。 我国媒介伊蚊分布地区处于登革热高发期，本地病例将继续增多，Ⅰ类省份部分本地暴发疫情仍将持续，存在发生较大规模本地暴发疫情的风险，输入病例多且媒介密度较高的Ⅱ、Ⅲ类省份存在输入病例引发本地传播甚至出现暴发疫情的可能。 手足口病将进入秋季流行期。 霍乱仍会出现散发病例。 炭疽处于高峰期，既往存在炭疽疫源地的西部和东北等地发生炭疽病例的可能性大。 空肠弯曲菌感染所致格林–巴利综合征暴发事件可能会发生。 食物中毒仍处于高发期。 刚果民主共和国埃博拉病毒病疫情仍将持续发生，但输入我国的风险低。 结论需要对登革热、手足口病予以重点关注，对霍乱、炭疽、空肠弯曲菌感染与格林–巴利综合征、食物中毒、刚果民主共和国埃博拉病毒病予以一般关注。 Abstract:ObjectiveTo assess the risk of public health emergencies, both the indigenous ones and the imported ones, which might occur in the mainland of China in September 2019. MethodsAn internet based expert counsel was conducted to analyze the surveillance data of public health emergencies and priority communicable diseases in China reported through different channels, and the experts in all provincial centers for disease control and prevention attended this conference through video terminal. ResultsGenerally speaking, it is predicted that the incidence of public health emergencies would be slightly higher in September than in August 2019. It is the high incidence season of dengue fever in the area where Aedes exists, indigenous cases would continue to increase and local outbreaks would continue to occur or the risk of large scale outbreaks exits in grade Ⅰ provinces, in addition, the possibility of local transmission and outbreaks caused by imported cases exists in grade Ⅱ and grade Ⅲ provinces where imported case number and Aedes density are high. The autumn epidemic season of hand foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is coming. Sporadic cases of cholera might continue to occur. It is the high incidence season of anthrax, and anthrax is more likely to occur in the previous anthrax foci in western and northeastern China. Outbreaks of Guillain-Barre syndrome caused by Campylobacter jejuni infection might occur. The incidence of food poisoning would continue to be high. Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo would continue; however, the risk of its spread to China is low. ConclusionClose attention should be paid to dengue fever and HFMD, and general attention should be paid to cholera, anthrax, C. jejuni infection, Guillain-Barre syndrome, food poisoning and EVD in the Democratic Republic of Congo. -
Key words:
- Public health emergency /
- Communicable disease /
- Risk assessment
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图 1 近期我国内地及港澳台地区需关注的传染病疫情和突发公共卫生事件（截至2019年9月5日）
Figure 1. Recent communicable disease outbreaks or public health emergencies with great concern in China，including Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan (as of 5 September 2019)
图 2 近期全球需关注的传染病疫情和突发公共卫生事件（截至2019年9月5日）
注：1. 刚果民主共和国埃博拉病毒病：2019年7月29日至8月25日，新增报告病例294例，新增报告死亡200例。2018年4月30日至2019年8月25日，共报告病例2 976例，死亡1 990例，病死率为67%。2019年8月16日，South Kivu省Mwenga卫生区首次报告2例病例。目前疫情分布在东北部3个省的29个卫生区。需继续密切监测局势，为我国制定疫情应对策略提供依据（来源：WHO）
Figure 2. Recent communicable disease outbreaks or public health emergencies with global concern (as of 5 September 2019)
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[1] 涂文校, 祝菲, 李超, 等. 2018年1月中国大陆需关注的突发公共卫生事件风险评估[J]. 疾病监测,2018,33(1):3–6. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003−9961.2018.01.003.Tu WX, Zhu F, Li C, et al. Risk assessment of public health emergency concerned in mainland China, January 2018[J]. Dis Surveill, 2018,33(1):3–6. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003−9961.2018.01.003. [2] 孟玲, 李超, 杨静, 等. 2018年3月全国突发公共卫生事件及需关注的传染病风险评估[J]. 疾病监测,2018,33(3):184–187. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003−9961.2018.03.004.Meng L, Li C, Yang J, et al. Risk assessment of public health emergencies concerned in the mainland of China, March 2018[J]. Dis Surveill, 2018,33(3):184–187. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003−9961.2018.03.004. -
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