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刘天, 翁熹君, 张丽杰, 姚梦雷, 黄继贵, 许勤勤, 吴杨, 陈琦, 童叶青. 2010－2017年湖北省荆州市逐日气温对手足口病发病的影响[J]. 疾病监测, 2019, 34(9): 855-860. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2019.09.017
引用本文: 刘天, 翁熹君, 张丽杰, 姚梦雷, 黄继贵, 许勤勤, 吴杨, 陈琦, 童叶青. 2010－2017年湖北省荆州市逐日气温对手足口病发病的影响[J]. 疾病监测, 2019, 34(9): 855-860. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2019.09.017
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Tian Liu, Xijun Weng, Lijie Zhang, Menglei Yao, Jigui Huang, Qinqin Xu, Yang Wu, Qi Chen, Yeqing Tong. Influence of daily mean temperature on incidence of hand foot and mouth disease in Jingzhou, Hubei, 2010–2017[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2019, 34(9): 855-860. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2019.09.017
Citation: Tian Liu, Xijun Weng, Lijie Zhang, Menglei Yao, Jigui Huang, Qinqin Xu, Yang Wu, Qi Chen, Yeqing Tong. Influence of daily mean temperature on incidence of hand foot and mouth disease in Jingzhou, Hubei, 2010–2017[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2019, 34(9): 855-860. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2019.09.017
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2010－2017年湖北省荆州市逐日气温对手足口病发病的影响

Influence of daily mean temperature on incidence of hand foot and mouth disease in Jingzhou, Hubei, 2010–2017

    摘要
  • 摘要:
    目的探讨湖北省荆州市逐日气温对手足口病发病的影响。
    方法收集2010 — 2017年荆州市手足口病日发病数和同期气象资料，首先采用Spearman等级相关分析荆州市主要气象因子与手足口病日平均发病数的相关关系，然后采用分布滞后非线性模型分析不同滞后天数、气温与手足口病发病的关联性。 以气温3.41 ℃（P5）为参照，估计较低气温9.76 ℃（P25）、平均气温18.35 ℃（P50）、高温30.96 ℃（P95）对手足口病发病造成的影响，同时分析气温对手足口病发病的累计滞后效应。
    结果2010 — 2017年荆州市累计报告手足口病48 591例。 手足口病日平均发病数与日平均气温、日降水量、日平均气压、日相对湿度和风速存在相关关系。 气温与手足口病日平均发病例数的暴露反应关系曲线呈倒“U”形，在18.19 ℃效应值最大为2.67（95%CI：2.12 ~ 3.37）。 气温为9.76 ℃（P25）、18.35 ℃（P50）和30.96 ℃（P95）时，相对危险度（RR）＞1.00对应滞后时间分别为6 ~ 19 d，6 ~ 21 d和0 d。 气温5.17 ℃（P10）、9.76 ℃（P25）、18.35 ℃（P50）和25.21 ℃（P95）在lag0 ~ 21 d的累计滞后效应值最大，分别为1.11（1.04 ~ 1.19）、1.56（1.31 ~ 1.86）、2.67（2.12 ~ 3.37）和1.58（1.19 ~ 2.10）。
    结论平均温度能显著增加荆州市手足口病发病风险，高温和较低气温能降低手足口病发病风险，对手足口病发病的影响呈非线性且具有滞后性。

     

    Abstract:
    ObjectiveTo discuss the 1ag effects of daily mean temperature on incidence of hand foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in Jingzhou of Hubei province.
    MethodsThe data of daily cases of HFMD in Jingzhou from 2010 to 2017 were collected, and local meteorological data during the same period were collected too. Spearman correlation test was used to analyze the relationship between the meteorological factors and the daily case number of HFMD, and the distributed lag non-linear model was used to analyze the relationship between the daily mean temperature and the daily case number of HFMD. The temperature of 18.18 ℃ was used as reference for the estimation of RRs at different temperature (P25, P50, P95). The delayed and cumulative effects of daily mean temperature on daily case number of HFMD were also assessed.
    ResultsA total of 48 591 cases were reported in Jingzhou from 2010 to 2017. The daily mean case number of HFMD was related to daily average temperature, daily precipitation, daily average pressure, daily relative humidity and wind speed. An inverse U-shaped relationship was found consistently between daily mean temperature and the daily case number of HFMD, and the maximum value of effect at 18.19 ℃ was 2.67 (95% CI: 2.12–3.37). When the temperature was set to 9.76 ℃ (P25), 18.35 ℃ (P50) and 30.96 ℃ (P95), the lag effect time of the significant positive influence (RR＞1.00) on daily case number of HFMD was 6–19 d, 6–21 d and 0 d respectively. The lag effect was highest on lag 0–21 d, and the RR values of HFMD was 1.11(95% CI: 1.04–1.19), 1.56(95% CI: 1.31–1.86), 2.67, (95% CI: 2.12–3.37), 1.58 (95% CI: 1.19–2.10) for 5.17 ℃(P10), 9.76 ℃(P25), 18.35 ℃(P50) and 25.21 ℃(P95) respectively.
    ConclusionAverage temperature had significant influence on the risk of HFMD in Jingzhou. High temperature and low temperature could reduce the risk of HFMD, and the influence on the daily case number of HFMD was nonlinear and lagging.

     

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