2020-2021年度新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情发展趋势分析与应对

郭德银 江佳富 宋宏彬 秦天 李振军 张定梅 黄森忠 舒跃龙 徐建青 姜世勃 郑涛 田怀玉 郝荣章 徐建国

郭德银, 江佳富, 宋宏彬, 秦天, 李振军, 张定梅, 黄森忠, 舒跃龙, 徐建青, 姜世勃, 郑涛, 田怀玉, 郝荣章, 徐建国. 2020-2021年度新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情发展趋势分析与应对[J]. 疾病监测, 2020, 35(12): 1068-1072. doi: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2020.12.005
引用本文: 郭德银, 江佳富, 宋宏彬, 秦天, 李振军, 张定梅, 黄森忠, 舒跃龙, 徐建青, 姜世勃, 郑涛, 田怀玉, 郝荣章, 徐建国. 2020-2021年度新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情发展趋势分析与应对[J]. 疾病监测, 2020, 35(12): 1068-1072. doi: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2020.12.005
Guo Deyin, Jiang Jiafu, Song Hongbin, Qin Tian, Li Zhenjun, Zhang Dingmei, Huang Senzhong, Shu Yuelong, Xu Jianqing, Jiang Shibo, Zheng Tao, Tian Huaiyu, Hao Rongzhang, Xu Jianguo. Predictive analysis and countermeasures in response to COVID-19 epidemic in 2020–2021[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2020, 35(12): 1068-1072. doi: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2020.12.005
Citation: Guo Deyin, Jiang Jiafu, Song Hongbin, Qin Tian, Li Zhenjun, Zhang Dingmei, Huang Senzhong, Shu Yuelong, Xu Jianqing, Jiang Shibo, Zheng Tao, Tian Huaiyu, Hao Rongzhang, Xu Jianguo. Predictive analysis and countermeasures in response to COVID-19 epidemic in 2020–2021[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2020, 35(12): 1068-1072. doi: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2020.12.005

2020-2021年度新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情发展趋势分析与应对

doi: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2020.12.005
基金项目: 中国工程院咨询项目(No. 2020-XZ-37)
详细信息
    作者简介:

    郭德银,男,河南省商丘市人,教授,主要从事冠状病毒等RNA病毒的感染与致病机制研究,Email:guodeyin@mail.sysu.edu.cn

    通讯作者:

    徐建国,Tel:010–58900789,Email:xujianguo@icdc.cn

  • 中图分类号: R211;R51; R373

Predictive analysis and countermeasures in response to COVID-19 epidemic in 2020–2021

Funds: This study was supported by grants from the Advisory Research Project of the Chinese Academy of Engineering (No. 2020-XZ-37)
More Information
  • 摘要: 新型冠状病毒(新冠病毒)具有自然疫源性和流感病毒的流行特性,病毒复制快、细胞嗜性广、存活能力强,而且其无症状感染者普遍、传播隐蔽,病毒已经在人群适应,控制难度大。在新冠病毒疫苗发挥广泛保护效应之前,2020 — 2021年度全球疫情可能进一步恶化,我国仍然面临境外多渠道持续输入和局部暴发或疫情重现风险。 因此,应进一步开展我国疫情高发区人群携带新冠病毒状况和相应环境中新冠病毒的监测;建立国家超级可移动新冠病毒检测网络实验室,能够执行超大规模检测任务;实施差异化疫苗接种策略并密切跟踪监测疫苗接种的效果和效率;应继续强化戴口罩、勤洗手、保距离、常开窗、少聚会等行之有效的公共卫生措施。 新冠病毒疫情再一次警告大家,野生动物源性未知病原体所导致的新发传染病病原不断地出现已经成为“新常态”,必须前瞻性系统开展未知微生物发现和反向病原学研究,主动防卫和应对未来新发传染病疫情。
  • 图  1  新型冠状病毒肺炎与2009年H1N1流感的传播速度比较

    注:从第60例确诊病例开始计算天数(美国)

    Figure  1.  Comparison of transmission speed between COVID-19 and H1N1 2009

    图  2  新型冠状病毒肺炎全球疫情时间分布及其预测

    Figure  2.  Time distribution and prediction of the global epidemic situation of COVID-19

  • [1] Zhou P, Yang XL, Wang XG, et al. A pneumonia outbreak associated with a new coronavirus of probable bat origin[J]. Nature, 2020,579(7798):270–273. DOI:10.1038/s41586−020−2012−7.
    [2] Alexander MR, Schoeder CT, Brown JA, et al. Which animals are at risk? Predicting species susceptibility to COVID-19[J]. bioRxiv, 2020. DOI: 10.1101/2020.07.09.194563.
    [3] Zhao XS, Chen DY, Szabla R, et al. Broad and differential animal angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 receptor usage by SARS-CoV-2[J]. J Virol, 2020,94(18):e00940–20. DOI:10.1128/JVI.00940−20.
    [4] Zhou H, Chen X, Hu T, et al. A novel bat coronavirus closely related to SARS-CoV-2 contains natural insertions at the S1/S2 cleavage site of the spike protein[J]. Curr Biol, 2020,30(11):2196–2203.e3. DOI: 10.1016/j.cub.2020.05.023.
    [5] Lam TTY, Jia N, Zhang YW, et al. Identifying SARS-CoV-2-related coronaviruses in Malayan pangolins[J]. Nature, 2020,583(7815):282–285. DOI:10.1038/s41586−020−2169−0.
    [6] Xiao KP, Zhai JQ, Feng YY, et al. Isolation of SARS-CoV-2-related coronavirus from Malayan pangolins[J]. Nature, 2020,583(7815):286–289. DOI:10.1038/s41586−020−2313−x.
    [7] Zeng H, Goldsmith CS, Maines TR, et al. Tropism and infectivity of influenza virus, including highly pathogenic avian H5N1 virus, in ferret tracheal differentiated primary epithelial cell cultures[J]. J Virol, 2013,87(5):2597–2607. DOI:10.1128/JVI.02885−12.
    [8] Kindler E, Jónsdóttir HR, Muth D, et al. Efficient replication of the novel human betacoronavirus EMC on primary human epithelium highlights its zoonotic potential[J]. mBio, 2013,4(1):e00611–12. DOI:10.1128/mBio.00611−12.
    [9] Zhu N, Wang WL, Liu ZD, et al. Morphogenesis and cytopathic effect of SARS-CoV-2 infection in human airway epithelial cells[J]. Nat Commun, 2020,11:3910. DOI:10.1038/s41467−020−17796−z.
    [10] Thompson KA, Bennett AM. Persistence of influenza on surfaces[J]. J Hosp Infect, 2017,95(2):194–199. DOI: 10.1016/j.jhin.2016.12.003.
    [11] Van Doremalen N, Bushmaker T, Munster VJ. Stability of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) under different environmental conditions[J]. Euro Surveill, 2013,18(38):20590. DOI:10.2807/1560−7917.es2013.18.38.20590.
    [12] Fears AC, Klimstra WB, Duprex P, et al. Comparative dynamic aerosol efficiencies of three emergent coronaviruses and the unusual persistence of SARS-CoV-2 in aerosol suspensions[J]. medRxiv, 2020. DOI: 10.1101/2020.04.13.20063784.
    [13] Dai MM, Li HN, Yan N, et al. Long-term survival of salmon-attached SARS-CoV-2 at 4 ℃ as a potential source of transmission in seafood markets[J]. bioRxiv, 2020. DOI: 10.1101/2020.09.06.284695.
    [14] Lytras T, Dellis G, Flountzi A, et al. High prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in repatriation flights to Greece from three European countries[J]. J Travel Med, 2020,27(3):taaa054. DOI: 10.1093/jtm/taaa054.
    [15] Karthik K, Senthilkumar TMA, Udhayavel S, et al. Role of antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE) in the virulence of SARS-CoV-2 and its mitigation strategies for the development of vaccines and immunotherapies to counter COVID-19[J]. Hum Vaccin Immunother, 2020. DOI: 10.1080/21645515.2020.1796425.
  • 加载中
图(2)
计量
  • 文章访问数:  6347
  • HTML全文浏览量:  538
  • PDF下载量:  840
  • 被引次数: 0
出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2020-12-23
  • 网络出版日期:  2020-12-30
  • 刊出日期:  2020-12-30

目录

    /

    返回文章
    返回

    在线交流

    防诈骗公告

    近期有不法分子以本刊编辑身份添加作者微信,请务必提高警惕!本刊关于稿件的一切事项通知均采用编辑部唯一邮箱(jbjc@icdc.cn)和座机(010-58900732)联系作者,且在录用稿件后仅收取版面费,无其他任何名目费用(如审稿费和加急费等),非编辑部邮箱发送的本刊收费用通知等均为诈骗,不要随意汇入款项!如有可疑及时致电编辑部核实确认!