2020－2021年度新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情发展趋势分析与应对

郭德银; 江佳富; 宋宏彬; 秦天; 李振军; 张定梅; 黄森忠; 舒跃龙; 徐建青; 姜世勃; 郑涛; 田怀玉; 郝荣章; 徐建国

doi:10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2020.12.005

2020－2021年度新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情发展趋势分析与应对

doi: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2020.12.005

郭德银^1,,
江佳富²,
宋宏彬³,
秦天⁴,
李振军⁴,
张定梅⁵,
黄森忠⁶,
舒跃龙⁷,
徐建青⁸,
姜世勃⁹,
郑涛¹⁰,
田怀玉¹¹,
郝荣章¹²,
徐建国^{4, 13, ,}

1.
中山大学医学院感染免疫中心，广东广州 518107
2.
军事科学院军事医学研究院微生物流行病研究所，病原微生物生物安全国家重点实验室，北京 100071
3.
中国人民解放军疾病预防控制中心，北京 100071
4.
中国疾病预防控制中心传染病预防控制所，传染病预防控制国家重点实验室，北京 102206
5.
中山大学公共卫生学院流行病学系，广东广州 510080
6.
南开大学统计与数据科学学院，公共卫生与健康研究院，智英健康数据研究中心，天津 300071
7.
中山大学公共卫生学院（深圳），广东深圳 510006
8.
上海市公共卫生临床中心/复旦大学生物医学研究院，上海 201508
9.
复旦大学基础医学院，上海 200032
10.
军事科学院军事医学研究院，北京 100071
11.
北京师范大学全球变化与公共健康研究中心，北京 100875
12.
首都医科大学公共卫生学院，北京 100069
13.
南开大学公共卫生和健康研究院，天津 300071

基金项目: 中国工程院咨询项目（No. 2020-XZ-37）

详细信息

作者简介:
郭德银，男，河南省商丘市人，教授，主要从事冠状病毒等RNA病毒的感染与致病机制研究，Email：guodeyin@mail.sysu.edu.cn

通讯作者:
徐建国，Tel：010–58900789，Email：xujianguo@icdc.cn

中图分类号: R211；R51； R373
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2020-12-23
- 网络出版日期: 2020-12-30
- 刊出日期: 2020-12-30

Predictive analysis and countermeasures in response to COVID-19 epidemic in 2020–2021

1.
Center for Infection and Immunity Study, School of Medicine, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 518107, Guangdong, China
2.
State Key Laboratory of Pathogens and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing 100071, China
3.
Chinese PLA Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100071, China
4.
State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China
5.
Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, Guangdong, China
6.
School of Statistics and Data Science, and Institute of Public Heath, and ZhiYing Research Center for Health Data, Nankai University, Tianjin 300071, China
7.
School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510006, Guangdong, China
8.
Shanghai Public Health Clinical Center and Institutes of Biomedical Sciences, Key Laboratory of Medical Molecular Virology of Ministry of Education/Health, Shanghai Medical College, Fudan University, Shanghai 201508, China
9.
Key Laboratory of Medical Molecular Virology (MOE/NHC/CAMS), School of Basic Medical Sciences and Biosafety Level 3 Laboratory, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China
10.
Academy of Military Medical Sciences, Academy of Military Sciences, People's Liberation Army of China, Beijing 100071, China
11.
Center for Global Change and Public Health, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
12.
School of Public Health, Capital Medical University, Beijing 100069, China
13.
Research Institute of Public Heath, Nankai University, Tianjin 300071, China

Funds: This study was supported by grants from the Advisory Research Project of the Chinese Academy of Engineering (No. 2020-XZ-37)

More Information

Corresponding author: Xu Jianguo, Email: xujianguo@icdc.cn

摘要

摘要: 新型冠状病毒（新冠病毒）具有自然疫源性和流感病毒的流行特性，病毒复制快、细胞嗜性广、存活能力强，而且其无症状感染者普遍、传播隐蔽，病毒已经在人群适应，控制难度大。在新冠病毒疫苗发挥广泛保护效应之前，2020 — 2021年度全球疫情可能进一步恶化，我国仍然面临境外多渠道持续输入和局部暴发或疫情重现风险。因此，应进一步开展我国疫情高发区人群携带新冠病毒状况和相应环境中新冠病毒的监测；建立国家超级可移动新冠病毒检测网络实验室，能够执行超大规模检测任务；实施差异化疫苗接种策略并密切跟踪监测疫苗接种的效果和效率；应继续强化戴口罩、勤洗手、保距离、常开窗、少聚会等行之有效的公共卫生措施。新冠病毒疫情再一次警告大家，野生动物源性未知病原体所导致的新发传染病病原不断地出现已经成为“新常态”，必须前瞻性系统开展未知微生物发现和反向病原学研究，主动防卫和应对未来新发传染病疫情。
- 新型冠状病毒肺炎 /
- 新型冠状病毒 /
- 自然疫源性疾病 /
- 无症状感染者 /
- 抗体依赖性增强
Abstract: Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is a natural emerging virus, with rapid virus replication, wide cell tropism, and strong survival ability. Its epidemic characteristics are similar to those of influenza virus. Asymptomatic infections are widespread in a covert way, and the virus has adapted to human population, making it difficult to control the transmission. The global epidemic in 2020/2021 may further deteriorate before the SARS-CoV-2 vaccines are widely applied and show protective effectiveness, and China will still face the risk of continuous overseas multi-channel import and local outbreaks or recurrence of the epidemic. Therefore, it is necessary to carry out further surveillance about the prevalence and infection of SARS-CoV-2 in the population and the corresponding environment of the high-risk areas in China, and establish a national super mobile SARS-CoV-2 detection network laboratory for performing ultra-large-scale testing tasks; implement differentiated vaccination strategies and closely follow up and monitor the effectiveness and efficiency of vaccination; and continue to strengthen effective public health measures such as wearing masks, washing hands frequently, keeping social distances, opening windows frequently, and reducing gatherings. The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic warns us once again that the continuous emergence of new infectious diseases caused by unknown pathogens of wild animal origin has become the new normal status. It is necessary to systematically carry out unknown microbial discovery and reverse pathogenic etiology research in a prospective manner, and actively defend against emerging infectious diseases in the future.
- Coronavirus disease 2019 /
- Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 /
- Natural focal disease /
- Asymmetric carrier /
- Antibody-dependent enhancement

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图 1 新型冠状病毒肺炎与2009年H1N1流感的传播速度比较

注：从第60例确诊病例开始计算天数（美国）

Figure 1. Comparison of transmission speed between COVID-19 and H1N1 2009

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 新型冠状病毒肺炎全球疫情时间分布及其预测

Figure 2. Time distribution and prediction of the global epidemic situation of COVID-19

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

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