郭德银, 江佳富, 宋宏彬, 秦天, 李振军, 张定梅, 黄森忠, 舒跃龙, 徐建青, 姜世勃, 郑涛, 田怀玉, 郝荣章, 徐建国. 2020-2021年度新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情发展趋势分析与应对[J]. 疾病监测, 2020, 35(12): 1068-1072. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2020.12.005
引用本文: 郭德银, 江佳富, 宋宏彬, 秦天, 李振军, 张定梅, 黄森忠, 舒跃龙, 徐建青, 姜世勃, 郑涛, 田怀玉, 郝荣章, 徐建国. 2020-2021年度新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情发展趋势分析与应对[J]. 疾病监测, 2020, 35(12): 1068-1072. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2020.12.005
Guo Deyin, Jiang Jiafu, Song Hongbin, Qin Tian, Li Zhenjun, Zhang Dingmei, Huang Senzhong, Shu Yuelong, Xu Jianqing, Jiang Shibo, Zheng Tao, Tian Huaiyu, Hao Rongzhang, Xu Jianguo. Predictive analysis and countermeasures in response to COVID-19 epidemic in 2020–2021[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2020, 35(12): 1068-1072. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2020.12.005
Citation: Guo Deyin, Jiang Jiafu, Song Hongbin, Qin Tian, Li Zhenjun, Zhang Dingmei, Huang Senzhong, Shu Yuelong, Xu Jianqing, Jiang Shibo, Zheng Tao, Tian Huaiyu, Hao Rongzhang, Xu Jianguo. Predictive analysis and countermeasures in response to COVID-19 epidemic in 2020–2021[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2020, 35(12): 1068-1072. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2020.12.005

2020-2021年度新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情发展趋势分析与应对

Predictive analysis and countermeasures in response to COVID-19 epidemic in 2020–2021

  • 摘要: 新型冠状病毒(新冠病毒)具有自然疫源性和流感病毒的流行特性,病毒复制快、细胞嗜性广、存活能力强,而且其无症状感染者普遍、传播隐蔽,病毒已经在人群适应,控制难度大。在新冠病毒疫苗发挥广泛保护效应之前,2020 — 2021年度全球疫情可能进一步恶化,我国仍然面临境外多渠道持续输入和局部暴发或疫情重现风险。 因此,应进一步开展我国疫情高发区人群携带新冠病毒状况和相应环境中新冠病毒的监测;建立国家超级可移动新冠病毒检测网络实验室,能够执行超大规模检测任务;实施差异化疫苗接种策略并密切跟踪监测疫苗接种的效果和效率;应继续强化戴口罩、勤洗手、保距离、常开窗、少聚会等行之有效的公共卫生措施。 新冠病毒疫情再一次警告大家,野生动物源性未知病原体所导致的新发传染病病原不断地出现已经成为“新常态”,必须前瞻性系统开展未知微生物发现和反向病原学研究,主动防卫和应对未来新发传染病疫情。

     

    Abstract: Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is a natural emerging virus, with rapid virus replication, wide cell tropism, and strong survival ability. Its epidemic characteristics are similar to those of influenza virus. Asymptomatic infections are widespread in a covert way, and the virus has adapted to human population, making it difficult to control the transmission. The global epidemic in 2020/2021 may further deteriorate before the SARS-CoV-2 vaccines are widely applied and show protective effectiveness, and China will still face the risk of continuous overseas multi-channel import and local outbreaks or recurrence of the epidemic. Therefore, it is necessary to carry out further surveillance about the prevalence and infection of SARS-CoV-2 in the population and the corresponding environment of the high-risk areas in China, and establish a national super mobile SARS-CoV-2 detection network laboratory for performing ultra-large-scale testing tasks; implement differentiated vaccination strategies and closely follow up and monitor the effectiveness and efficiency of vaccination; and continue to strengthen effective public health measures such as wearing masks, washing hands frequently, keeping social distances, opening windows frequently, and reducing gatherings. The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic warns us once again that the continuous emergence of new infectious diseases caused by unknown pathogens of wild animal origin has become the new normal status. It is necessary to systematically carry out unknown microbial discovery and reverse pathogenic etiology research in a prospective manner, and actively defend against emerging infectious diseases in the future.

     

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