张冉冉, 姜彩肖, 李岩, 刘艳芳, 刘兰芬, 韩光跃, 韩旭, 李琦. 2010-2020年度河北省流感样病例流行特征和趋势分析[J]. 疾病监测, 2022, 37(11): 1429-1435. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.20205070198
引用本文: 张冉冉, 姜彩肖, 李岩, 刘艳芳, 刘兰芬, 韩光跃, 韩旭, 李琦. 2010-2020年度河北省流感样病例流行特征和趋势分析[J]. 疾病监测, 2022, 37(11): 1429-1435. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.20205070198
Zhang Ranran, Jiang Caixiao, Li Yan, Liu Yanfang, Liu Lanfen, Han Guangyue, Han Xu, Li Qi. Epidemiological characteristics and incidence trend of influenza like illness in Hebei, 2010−2020[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2022, 37(11): 1429-1435. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.20205070198
Citation: Zhang Ranran, Jiang Caixiao, Li Yan, Liu Yanfang, Liu Lanfen, Han Guangyue, Han Xu, Li Qi. Epidemiological characteristics and incidence trend of influenza like illness in Hebei, 2010−2020[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2022, 37(11): 1429-1435. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.20205070198

2010-2020年度河北省流感样病例流行特征和趋势分析

Epidemiological characteristics and incidence trend of influenza like illness in Hebei, 2010−2020

  • 摘要:
      目的  分析河北省2010—2020年度流感样病例(ILI)的流行特征和趋势特征,为相关卫生部门制定流感防控策略提供科学依据。
      方法  整理2010—2020年度河北省ILI监测数据,描述其流行特征,使用joinpoint软件构建以监测年度为自变量、流感样病例就诊比例(ILI%)为因变量的分段点线性回归模型,探索其在不同年龄段和地区间的流行趋势特征。
      结果  河北省2010—2020年度ILI%为1.84%,ILI和ILI%大致呈现冬春季流行为主的单峰分布形式;15岁以下儿童占比最高,约占67.3%;廊坊、保定、承德、石家庄、邯郸等地为ILI高发地。 河北省2010—2020年度ILI%以2016—2017年度为转折点,呈现“下降–快速上升”的趋势[前后年度变化百分比(APC)值分别为−3.34%和18.62%];0~岁组和5~岁组ILI%呈现“缓慢下降–上升”的趋势,25~岁组和60~岁组ILI%呈缓慢上升趋势(APC值分别为0.03%和0.01%);除邯郸、承德、石家庄地区外,其他地级市整体均呈现上升趋势,且各地区的回归线性结构各异。
      结论  河北省ILI呈现冬春季单峰分布,2010—2020年度间河北省ILI%整体呈“下降–快速上升”的趋势,其中15岁以下各年龄组ILI%趋势与整体趋势相似,除保定、邢台、张家口地区外,其他地区ILI%的流行趋势均部分或全部与整体趋势相符。 Joinpoint回归模型可揭示不同人群ILI%的流行趋势特征,为提出更加有针对性的流感防控措施提供依据。

     

    Abstract:
      Objective  To understand the epidemiological characteristics and incidence trend of influenza like illness (ILI) in Hebei province from 2010 to 2020 and provide evidence for the development of influenza prevention and control strategies.
      Methods  The 2010−2020 ILI surveillance data in Hebei were collected for a descriptive analysis. Software joinpoint was used to construct a piecewise point linear regression model with the surveillance year as the independent variable and the proportion of ILI cases as the dependent variable to explore the incidence trends of ILI in different age groups and areas.
      Results  The proportion of ILI cases in Hebei from 2010 to 2020 was 1.84%, and the incidence of ILI and the proportion of ILI cases mainly peaked during winter-spring; the cases in children under age of 15 years accounted for the highest proportion (about 67.3%); The incidences in Langfang, Baoding, Chengde, Shijiazhuang and Handan were high. The proportion of ILI cases in Hebei began to change during 2016−2017, showing a trend of “decrease-rapid increase” (APC=−3.34% and 18.62%); the proportion of ILI cases in 0-year-old group and the 5-year-old group showed a trend of “decrease-rapid increase”, the proportion of ILI cases in 25-year-old group and the 60-year-old group showed a slow increase trend (APC=0.03% and 0.01%). Except Handan, Chengde, and Shijiazhuang, the proportion of ILI cases other prefectures showed an overall increase, and the linear structure of regression varied.
      Conclusion  The incidence of ILI in Hebei showed a peak in winter and spring. The proportion of ILI cases in Hebei showed a “decline-rapid increase” during 2010 to 2020. The change trends of ILI case proportion in each age group under 15 years old were similar to the overall trend; except Baoding, Xingtai, Zhangjiakou, the trend of the proportions of ILI cases in other areas were partially or completely consistent with the overall trend. Joinpoint regression model can reveal the incidence trend of ILI in different populations, and provide a basis for better targeted influenza prevention and control of ILI.

     

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