张亦弛, 赵青, 庞明樊, 房元圣, 武洁雯, 杨昕娉, 纪瀚然, 孙静, 滕岱君, 戚晓鹏. 2024年6月全球传染病事件风险评估[J]. 疾病监测. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.2021.000
引用本文: 张亦弛, 赵青, 庞明樊, 房元圣, 武洁雯, 杨昕娉, 纪瀚然, 孙静, 滕岱君, 戚晓鹏. 2024年6月全球传染病事件风险评估[J]. 疾病监测. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.2021.000
Zhang Yichi, Zhao Qing, Pang Mingfan, Fang Yuansheng, Wu Jiewen, Yang Xinping, Ji Hanran, Sun Jing, Teng Daijun, Qi Xiaopeng. Risk Assessment of Global Infectious Disease Events in June 2024[J]. Disease Surveillance. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.2021.000
Citation: Zhang Yichi, Zhao Qing, Pang Mingfan, Fang Yuansheng, Wu Jiewen, Yang Xinping, Ji Hanran, Sun Jing, Teng Daijun, Qi Xiaopeng. Risk Assessment of Global Infectious Disease Events in June 2024[J]. Disease Surveillance. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.2021.000

2024年6月全球传染病事件风险评估

Risk Assessment of Global Infectious Disease Events in June 2024

  • 摘要:
    目的 对2024年6月中国境外发生的全球传染病事件进行监测,并评估对我国的输入风险和海外旅行风险。
    方法 运用多种来源的互联网开源情报信息,对重点关注传染病开展基于事件的监测,并采用风险矩阵法,从传播可能性和后果严重性两个维度,整合疾病、国家和事件特异性指标构建指标体系,对传染病境外输入风险和海外旅行风险开展评估。
    结果  2024年6月监测到10种传染病在全球29个国家形成突发事件或暴发疫情。对我国的输入风险方面,低风险事件29个;海外旅行风险方面,中风险事件23个。
    结论 建议一般关注南美洲、非洲和亚洲部分国家的登革热,莫桑比克、布隆迪、刚果(金)、也门、坦桑尼亚、津巴布韦的霍乱,安哥拉、乍得、阿富汗、尼日利亚、也门、几内亚、巴基斯坦、刚果(金)、尼日尔的脊髓灰质炎,尼日利亚的拉沙热,以色列的西尼罗病毒病,巴西的黄热病可能带来的输入风险。海外旅行风险方面,无重点关注疫情,建议出国旅行者一般关注中国周边亚洲国家(孟加拉国、尼泊尔、斯里兰卡、泰国、柬埔寨、马来西亚、越南)的登革热疫情,莫桑比克、布隆迪、刚果(金)、也门、坦桑尼亚、津巴布韦的霍乱疫情,安哥拉、乍得、阿富汗、尼日利亚、也门、几内亚、巴基斯坦、刚果(金)、尼日尔的脊髓灰质炎,刚果(金)和南非的猴痘、埃塞俄比亚的炭疽,尼日利亚的拉沙热,以色列的西尼罗病毒病,俄罗斯、巴基斯坦、伊拉克报告克里米亚-刚果出血热疫情;澳大利亚报告人感染H5N1高致病性禽流感病例;巴西报告的黄热病病例。

     

    Abstract:
    Objectives To detect global infectious disease events occurring outside mainland China in June 2024 and assess the importation risk to China and international travel risk.
    Methods Utilizing open-source intelligence on the Internet, this study conducts event-based surveillance of priority infectious diseases and adopts the risk matrix methodology to build an indicator system by integrating disease-, country- and event-specific indicators in terms of transmission likelihood and severity of consequences in order to assess the risk of the importation and the risk of international travel.
    Results In June 2024, 10 infectious diseases were detected to form events or outbreaks in 29 countries worldwide. In terms of importation risk to China, there are 29 low-risk events; in terms of international travel risk, there are 23 medium-risk events.
    Conclusion It is recommended to pay moderate attention to the possible importation risk posed by Dengue fever in some countries in South America, Africa, and Asia, cholera in Mozambique, Burundi, Democratic Republic of Congo, Yemen, Tanzania and Zimbabwe, poliomyelitis in Angola, Chad, Afghanistan, Nigeria, Yemen, Guinea, Pakistan, Democratic Republic of Congo and Niger, Lassa fever in Nigeria, West Nile virus disease in Israel and yellow fever in Brazil. International travelers are advised to focus on dengue fever in Asian countries around China (Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Cambodia, Malaysia, Vietnam) , Cholera outbreaks in Mozambique, Burundi, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Yemen, Tanzania and Zimbabwe, poliomyelitis in Angola, Chad, Afghanistan, Nigeria, Yemen, Guinea, Pakistan, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Niger, monkey pox in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and South Africa, anthrax in Ethiopia, Lassa fever in Nigeria, West Nile virus disease in Israel, Crimean Congo hemorrhagic fever reported by Russia, Pakistan and Iraq; Australia reports cases of human infection with H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza; Yellow fever cases reported in Brazil.

     

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