俞国龙, 陈田木, 祝媛钊, 史蓉婕, 刘凤仁, 叶碧莉, 刘峰, 林海端. 基于动力学模型的诺如病毒感染性腹泻暴发疫情防控措施效果分析[J]. 疾病监测, 2021, 36(12): 1312-1318. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202103040101
引用本文: 俞国龙, 陈田木, 祝媛钊, 史蓉婕, 刘凤仁, 叶碧莉, 刘峰, 林海端. 基于动力学模型的诺如病毒感染性腹泻暴发疫情防控措施效果分析[J]. 疾病监测, 2021, 36(12): 1312-1318. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202103040101
Yu Guolong, Chen Tianmu, Zhu Yuanzhao, Shi Rongjie, Liu Fengren, Ye Bili, Liu Feng, Lin Haiduan. Effect of prevention and control measures of a norovirus infectious outbreak based on dynamic model[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2021, 36(12): 1312-1318. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202103040101
Citation: Yu Guolong, Chen Tianmu, Zhu Yuanzhao, Shi Rongjie, Liu Fengren, Ye Bili, Liu Feng, Lin Haiduan. Effect of prevention and control measures of a norovirus infectious outbreak based on dynamic model[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2021, 36(12): 1312-1318. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202103040101

基于动力学模型的诺如病毒感染性腹泻暴发疫情防控措施效果分析

Effect of prevention and control measures of a norovirus infectious outbreak based on dynamic model

  • 摘要:
      目的  采用动力学模型模拟不同干预措施在诺如病毒感染性腹泻暴发疫情处置中的防控效果,探讨最佳防控方式。
      方法  根据选取2020年深圳市龙岗区报告的一起诺如病毒感染性腹泻暴发疫情资料,建立SEIAR模型,对诺如疫情隔离、停课及呕吐物处置效果进行分析。
      结果  本起疫情在无干预情况下,基本再生数为9.63,持续4 d,人群感染率为97.38%。 采取隔离措施时,开始实施隔离的时间越迟,感染人数越多,持续时间变化不大;若疫情报告后次日下午才开始实施隔离,疫情规模接近无干预,隔离失效。 在报告后次日开始停课(实际开始停课时间),疫情规模与实际相同;若报告后次日下午才开始停课,疫情与无干预很接近,停课无效。 对呕吐物消毒效果评估,呕吐物未消毒的疫情与实际基本相同,随着呕吐物的消毒效果加强,感染人数下降,消毒效果达到90%以上时,基本无病例。
      结论  发生诺如病毒感染性腹泻暴发疫情时,越早隔离、停课,规范处置呕吐物,效果越好。 本研究建立的SEIAR模型进行动力学分析可评估隔离、停课等防控措施的效果。

     

    Abstract:
      Objective  To use a dynamic model to simulate the prevention and control effects of different interventions in the management of norovirus infection outbreaks, and explore the best prevention and control methods.
      Methods  According to the natural history of norovirus infectious, a SEIAR model was establish to analyze the effects of isolation, class suspension and vomit disposal in a norovirus infection outbreak.
      Results  Without intervention, the basic reproduction of this outbreak (R0) of the epidemic would be 9.63 and the epidemic would lasted for 4 days. The population infection rate was 97.38%. If the isolation measures were taken, the later the measures were implemented, the more infections occurred, and the duration would has no obvious change. If the isolation started in the afternoon of the second day after the outbreak, the scale of the epidemic would be close to the scale of that without intervention, and the isolation measure would fail. If the class suspension was taken on the second day after the outbreak (the actual start of class suspension), the number of infections and the duration of the epidemic would close to the actual ones, if the class suspension started on the second day afternoon after the outbreak, the epidemic scale would be very close to that under no intervention, and the suspension would fail. Taking no disinfection measures had no influence on the epidemic scale. As the disinfection was strengthened, the number of infections decreased, When the disinfection effect reached more than 90%, there were nearly no cases reported.
      Conclusion  When an outbreak of norovirus infectious occurred, the control effect would be better if prompt case isolation and class suspension are implemented, and the standardized disposal of case vomit is needed. The SEIAR model established in this study can be used to evaluate the effect of prevention and control measures such as isolation and class suspension.

     

/

返回文章
返回