基于动态风险评估第三届中国国际进口博览会传染病风险防控研究

陈蓉; 肖文佳; 崔鹏; 任佳; 吴寰宇; 何永超; 黄晓燕

doi:10.3784/jbjc.202103260159

基于动态风险评估第三届中国国际进口博览会传染病风险防控研究

Dynamic communicable disease risk assessment during the Third China International Import Expo in Shanghai

摘要

摘要:
目的识别和评估上海市中国国际进口博览会（进博会）筹备和举办期间潜在的传染病风险，为制定针对性的防控措施提供依据。
方法采用专家会商法和风险矩阵法，对本市第三届进博会筹备和举办期间各种传染病风险进行识别和分析，动态评估其综合风险大小。
结果共识别出17种传染病风险。第一轮评估中，极高风险传染病1种（新型冠状病毒肺炎，COVID-19），高风险3种［流行性感冒（流感）、诺如病毒感染性腹泻和水痘］，中风险9种，低风险4种。第二轮评估后，高风险3种（COVID-19、诺如病毒感染性腹泻和水痘），中风险1种（流感），其余均为低风险。 COVID-19风险由极高降为高，流感风险由高降为中。根据两轮的评估结果，调整了相应的风险管控措施。
结论本研究发现的17种传染病风险及动态评估结果，为完善第三届进博会公共卫生安全保障工作方案和细化防控流程提供了较好的依据和参考，并提示第三届进博会期间的传染病防控需要各部门密切配合。

Abstract:
Objective To identify and assess the potential communicable disease risk during the Third China International Import Expo (CIIE) in Shanghai in 2020 and provide evidence and suggestions for the emergency preparedness and response.
Methods Two-round identification and assessment of potential communicable disease risk during CIIE 2020 was conducted by using expert consultation method and semi-quantitative risk matrix method.
Results In the first assessment, risk of 16 communicable diseases were categorized into 4 levels (low, moderate, high, very high). The risk of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was highest, followed by influenza, norovirus infectious diarrhea, varicella, which were escalated into high. 9 were escalated into medium and 3 were low. In the second assessment, the risk of COVID-19 was still highest although the risk was escalated from very high to high. The risk of influenza was escalated from high to moderate while the risk of norovirus infectious diarrhea and varicella were still escalated to high. Risks of other diseases were low.
Conclusion The study result provided evidence for the development of public health preparedness plan and prevention and control process during CIIE 2020. The prevention and control of communicable diseases during CIIE 2020 depend on the close multi-sectoral cooperation.

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