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摘要:
目的 分析2010—2020年北京市户籍女性乳腺癌死亡情况及趋势，为开展乳腺癌的防控工作提供科学依据。 方法 基于2010—2020年北京市女性乳腺癌死因监测资料，计算死亡率、标化死亡率及每10万人过早死亡损失寿命年等指标，分析2010—2020年患者发病到死亡时间变化趋势及发生继发转移所占比例，采用Joinpoint软件分析2010—2020年北京市女性乳腺癌标化死亡率与年龄别死亡率的变化趋势。 结果 2010—2020年北京市户籍女性因乳腺癌死亡总例数为9 108例，2020年粗死亡率为14.43/10万，较2010年（10.84/10万）上升了33.12%［平均年度变化百分比（AAPC）= 3.10%，P<0.001］，年龄标化后上升趋势减缓（AAPC = 1.10%，P=0.012）。 2010—2020年北京市户籍女性因乳腺癌死亡年龄中位数及患者从发病到死亡的生存时间中位数均整体上升。 结论 2010—2020年乳腺癌仍是北京市女性因恶性肿瘤死亡的主要原因，居恶性肿瘤死因顺位第5位，近年来发病率及死亡率呈逐年上升趋势，但生存期相对延长，说明北京市近年来的乳腺癌防治工作有效。 Abstract:Objective To analyze the mortality and trend of breast cancer in women with registered permanent residence in Beijing from 2010 to 2020, and provide scientific evidence for the prevention and control of breast cancer. Methods Based on the surveillance data of breast cancer deaths in women in Beijing from 2010 to 2020, the mortality rate, standardized mortality rate and years of premature death per 100 000 people (years of life lost, YLL rate) and other indicators were calculated, and the change in interval between onset and death of the patients and the proportion of the patients with secondary metastasis from 2010 to 2020 were analyzed. Software Joinpoint was used to analyze the trend of changes in the mortality rate and age-specific rate of breast cancer in the women in Beijing from 2010 to 2020. Results From 2010 to 2020, a total of 9 108 deaths of breast cancer occurred in the women with registered permanent residence in Beijing, and the crude death rate in 2020 was 14.43/100 000, an increase of 33.12% (average annual percent change, AAPC=3.10%, P<0.001) compared with 2010 (10.84/100 000), the age standardized mortality rate slowed a slighter increase (AAPC=1.10%, P=0.012). From 2010 to 2020, the median of age and the survival time from onset to death of the women who died of breast cancer in Beijing all showed an upward trends. Conclusion From 2010 to 2020, breast cancer was still the main cause of deaths from malignant tumors in women in Beijing, ranking fifth in malignant tumors. In recent years, the morbidity and mortality of breast cancer increased with year, but the survival time of women with breast cancer showed some increase, indicating that the prevention and treatment of breast cancer was effective in Beijing. -
Key words:
- Breast cancer /
- Mortality /
- Trend
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图 1 2010－2020年北京市户籍女性因乳腺癌死亡年龄变化
Figure 1. Change trend of age of death due to breast cancer in women in Beijing, 2010–2020
图 2 2010－2020北京市户籍女性乳腺癌分年龄组平均死亡率
Figure 2. Average breast cancer mortality rate in women in different age groups in Beijing, 2010–2020
图 3 2010－2020年北京市女性乳腺癌死亡病例从发病到死亡时间
Figure 3. Trend in interval between onset and death of breast cancer in women in Beijing, 2010–2020
图 4 2010－2020年北京市女性乳腺癌死亡病例发生转移的占比
Figure 4. Proportion of breast cancer deaths with metastasis in women in Beijing, 2010–2020
表 1 2010－2020年北京市户籍女性乳腺癌死亡情况
Table 1. Breast cancer deaths in women in Beijing, 2010–2020
年份 死亡例数 粗死亡率
（/10万）国标率
（/10万）世标率
（/10万）寿命损失年率
（/10万）2010 674 10.84 8.04 7.36 186.25 2011 652 10.34 7.58 6.89 177.87 2012 703 10.97 8.02 7.20 194.90 2013 783 12.03 8.36 7.61 193.63 2014 779 11.79 8.11 7.40 194.95 2015 867 12.97 8.76 7.92 208.33 2016 899 13.29 8.83 8.00 208.59 2017 895 13.13 8.74 7.92 205.47 2018 861 12.53 8.19 7.48 195.16 2019 979 14.04 8.63 8.01 200.98 2020 1016 14.43 8.75 8.13 205.76 AAPC − 3.10 1.10 1.20 − t值 − 7.50 3.10 3.70 − P值 − < 0.001 0.012 0.005 − 注：−. 未对其进行趋势分析；AAPC. 平均年度变化百分比 
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表 2 2010－2020年北京市户籍女性乳腺癌标化死亡率和年龄别率趋势分析
Table 2. Standardized mortality rate and Age-specific mortality rate of breast cancer in women in Beijing, 2010–2020
年龄组
（岁）Joinpoint
分段年度变化
百分比（%）Z值 P值 标率（全年龄） 0 1.1 3.1 0.012 30～ 0 −5.5 −2.1 0.063 35～ 0 4.7 1.5 0.162 40～ 0 1.4 0.8 0.444 45～ 0 1.2 1.0 0.350 50～ 2 −0.2 −0.2 0.823 55～ 0 −0.5 −0.4 0.726 60～ 0 −1.3 −1.4 0.199 65～ 0 1.2 1.8 0.111 70～ 0 2.6 3.0 0.014 75～ 0 1.4 1.7 0.125 80～ 0 3.5 2.6 0.031 85～ 0 5.4 4.2 0.002
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