广东省深圳市某区一起水痘暴发疫情调查和基于SEIR模型对疫情防控效果的评估

陈宏标 古子豪 周小峰 罗经伟 彭伟军 刘丽珍

陈宏标, 古子豪, 周小峰, 罗经伟, 彭伟军, 刘丽珍. 广东省深圳市某区一起水痘暴发疫情调查和基于SEIR模型对疫情防控效果的评估[J]. 疾病监测, 2022, 37(6): 855-860. doi: 10.3784/jbjc.202108300473
引用本文: 陈宏标, 古子豪, 周小峰, 罗经伟, 彭伟军, 刘丽珍. 广东省深圳市某区一起水痘暴发疫情调查和基于SEIR模型对疫情防控效果的评估[J]. 疾病监测, 2022, 37(6): 855-860. doi: 10.3784/jbjc.202108300473
Chen Hongbiao, Gu Zihao, Zhou Xiaofeng, Luo Jingwei, Peng Weijun, Liu Lizhen. Investigation of an outbreak of varicella in a district of Shenzhen and evaluation of control effect based on SEIR model[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2022, 37(6): 855-860. doi: 10.3784/jbjc.202108300473
Citation: Chen Hongbiao, Gu Zihao, Zhou Xiaofeng, Luo Jingwei, Peng Weijun, Liu Lizhen. Investigation of an outbreak of varicella in a district of Shenzhen and evaluation of control effect based on SEIR model[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2022, 37(6): 855-860. doi: 10.3784/jbjc.202108300473

广东省深圳市某区一起水痘暴发疫情调查和基于SEIR模型对疫情防控效果的评估

doi: 10.3784/jbjc.202108300473
基金项目: 深圳市龙华区传染病防控公共卫生重点学科(No. 2020–2024)
详细信息
    作者简介:

    陈宏标,男,广东省潮州市人,副主任医师,硕士研究生,主要从事疾病预防控制工作,Email:1509625509@qq.com

    通讯作者:

    陈宏标,Tel:0755–27706691,Email:1509625509@qq.com

  • 中图分类号: R211; R511.5

Investigation of an outbreak of varicella in a district of Shenzhen and evaluation of control effect based on SEIR model

Funds: This study was supported by Fund for Key Discipline Project of Communicable Disease Prevention and Control of Longhua District of Shenzhen (No. 2020–2024)
  • 摘要:   目的   采用SEIR模型评估一起水痘暴发疫情处置措施的效果,为今后水痘疫情处置提供科学参考。  方法   回顾性分析广东省深圳市某区一起达到突发公共卫生事件标准的校园水痘暴发疫情资料,使用传播动力学SEIR模型对其防控效果进行评估。  结果   此次疫情共有水痘病例123例,罹患率为3.40%。 其中92人有水痘疫苗接种史。 接种水痘疫苗的总保护率为55.88%,仅接种1剂次的保护率为55.20%,接种2剂次保护率为57.11%,接种1剂次、接种2剂次与未接种人群的发病率差异有统计学意义(P<0.001),接种1剂次与接种2剂次比较差异无统计学意义(P>0.05)。 SEIR模型模拟学校疫情在无干预下自然发展180 d,可产生434例水痘病例,疫情持续101 d,设定对首发病例发病即隔离、对所有病例隔离、首发病例发生后及时进行应急接种的条件下拟合,可产生10、92和31例水痘,疫情持续时间分别为0 d(病例数均小于1)、87 d、35 d;模型拟合学校开展4次水痘疫苗应急接种后可产生80例病例,疫情持续72 d,比实际发生病例数少43例,疫情发生时间少2 d,比接种率90%情况下多49例,疫情持续时间多41 d。  结论   在水痘疫情的处置中,早期发现首发病例、完全隔离病例、及时全面开展应急接种是控制水痘疫情的关键措施。
  • 图  1  2021年深圳市某校水痘病例发病时间分布

    Figure  1.  Time distribution of varicella cases in a school of Shenzhen, 2021

    图  2  2021年深圳市某校水痘疫情有无干预情况下模型拟合流行曲线

    Figure  2.  Model-fitted epidemic curve of varicella with or without intervention in a school of Shenzhen, 2021

    图  3  2021年深圳市某校水痘疫情不同措施后模型拟合流行曲线

    Figure  3.  Model-fitted the epidemic curve of varicella after taking different measures in a school of Shenzhen, 2021

    图  4  2021年深圳市某校水痘疫情不同应急接种情况模型拟合流行曲线

    Figure  4.  Model-fitted epidemic curve of varicella under different emergency vaccination strategies in a school of Shenzhen, 2021

    表  1  涉疫班级学生接种不同针次水痘疫苗的罹患率比较

    Table  1.   Comparison of attack rate of varicella in students with different varicella vaccination doses

    接种剂次暴露人数(例)发病人数(例)罹患率(%)χ2P
    1针 903 60 6.64 0.042 0.837a
    2针 503 32 6.3615.144<0.001b
    未接种 209 3114.8313.136<0.001c
    合计16151237.62
    注:a. 1针与2针的比较;b. 1针与未接种的比较;c. 2针与未接种的比较;–. 无数据
    下载: 导出CSV
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  • 收稿日期:  2021-08-30
  • 网络出版日期:  2022-03-28
  • 刊出日期:  2022-07-14

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