分布滞后非线性模型评估浙江省宁海县气温对0~6岁儿童其他感染性腹泻的发病影响

刘世科 孙家盛 章海斌 王帆 陈伟 任丛汉

刘世科, 孙家盛, 章海斌, 等. 分布滞后非线性模型评估浙江省宁海县气温对0~6岁儿童其他感染性腹泻的发病影响[J]. 疾病监测, 2022, 37(12): 1563-1568. doi: 10.3784/jbjc.202112060624
引用本文: 刘世科, 孙家盛, 章海斌, 等. 分布滞后非线性模型评估浙江省宁海县气温对0~6岁儿童其他感染性腹泻的发病影响[J]. 疾病监测, 2022, 37(12): 1563-1568. doi: 10.3784/jbjc.202112060624
Liu Shike, Sun Jiasheng, Zhang Haibin, et al. Evaluation of effect of ambient temperature on other infectious diarrhea incidence in children aged 0−6 years in Ninghai by distributed lag non-linear model[J]. Dis Surveill, 2022, 37(12): 1563-1568. doi: 10.3784/jbjc.202112060624
Citation: Liu Shike, Sun Jiasheng, Zhang Haibin, et al. Evaluation of effect of ambient temperature on other infectious diarrhea incidence in children aged 0−6 years in Ninghai by distributed lag non-linear model[J]. Dis Surveill, 2022, 37(12): 1563-1568. doi: 10.3784/jbjc.202112060624

分布滞后非线性模型评估浙江省宁海县气温对0~6岁儿童其他感染性腹泻的发病影响

doi: 10.3784/jbjc.202112060624
基金项目: 浙江省宁海县社会发展类科技项目(No. 2119)
详细信息
    作者简介:

    刘世科,男,甘肃省宁县人,医学学士,主要从事传染性疾病防控工作

    通讯作者:

    刘世科,Tel:13968326935,Email:shikeliu@163.com

  • 中图分类号: R211; R183

Evaluation of effect of ambient temperature on other infectious diarrhea incidence in children aged 0−6 years in Ninghai by distributed lag non-linear model

Funds: This study was supported by the Fund for Science and Technology Projects of Social Development of Ninghai, Zhejiang (No. 2119)
More Information
  • 摘要:   目的  利用分布滞后非线性模型(distributed lag non-linearmodel,DLNM)探讨气温对浙江省宁海县0~6岁儿童其他感染性腹泻的发病影响,为科学制定预防控制策略提供帮助。  方法  收集2016-2020年宁海县有关气象资料和0~6岁儿童其他感染性腹泻的发病资料,采用SPSS 20.0软件分析气象因素与发病数的相关性,利用R 4.1.0软件构建DLNM探讨气温对0~6岁儿童其他感染性腹泻的发病影响。  结果  2016-2020年宁海县0~6岁儿童其他感染性腹泻的发病呈一定季节性,每年12月至次年2月为发病高峰。 Spearman分析显示,日平均气温与其他感染性腹泻的相关性最高(r=−0.291)。 DLNM显示,日平均气温为−5 ℃时对其他感染性腹泻的累计发病效应最大(RR=16.601,95%CI:2.667~103.333),在滞后0 d 时,发病风险最小(相对危险度RR=0.815,95%CI:0.730~0.910);滞后30 d时,发病风险最大(RR=1.265,95%CI:1.148~1.395)。−5、5、11.5 ℃的气温条件对其他感染性腹泻的发病影响持续时间长,其累计滞后天数分别可达30、21和30 d。  结论  日平均气温和宁海县0~6岁儿童其他感染性腹泻的发病明显相关,在低温条件下发病风险显著增加且有较长的滞后效应,高温条件下不显著。
  • 图  1  2016-2020年宁海县0~6岁儿童其他感染性腹泻的时间分布

    Figure  1.  Time distribution of other infectious diarrhea cases in children aged 0−6 years in Ninghai, 2016−2020

    图  2  2016-2020年宁海县0~6岁儿童其他感染性腹泻的发病率

    Figure  2.  Incidence rate of other infectious diarrhea in children aged 0−6 years in Ninghai, 2016−2020

    图  3  2016-2020年宁海县不同地区0~6岁儿童其他感染性腹泻的发病率

    Figure  3.  Incidence rate of other infectious diarrhea in children aged 0−6 years in different areas in Ninghai 2016−2020

    图  4  日平均气温和滞后时间对0~6岁儿童其他感染性腹泻的影响

    Figure  4.  Effects of different daily average ambient temperature and lag time on incidence of other infectious diarrhea in children aged 0−6 years

    图  5  日平均气温对0~6岁儿童其他感染性腹泻影响的总体累积效应

    Figure  5.  Overall cumulative effect of daily average ambient temperature on incidence of other infectious diarrhea in children aged 0−6 years

    表  1  2016-2020年宁海县气象因素和0~6岁儿童其他感染性腹泻的基本情况

    Table  1.   Meteorological factors and other infectious diarrhea in children aged 0−6 years in Ninghai during 2016−2020

      指标均值(n=1 827)最小值P5MP25~P75P95最大值
    日发病数(例)7.070.001.006.00(3.00~9.00)18.0041.00
    日平均温差(℃)8.810.003.009.00(7.00~11.00)14.0024.00
    日平均气温(℃)18.10−5.005.0018.50(11.50~24.50)30.0034.00
    日平均湿度(%)80.350.0058.0082.00(75.00~88.00)95.00100.00
    日平均降水量(mm)7.000.000.001.45(0.00~8.15)28.89282.00
    日空气质量指数53.3212.0023.0047.00(34.00~66.00)103.00277.00
    注:P5. 第5百分位数;MP25~P75). 中位数(第25~75百分位数);P95. 第95百分位数
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  2  宁海县内0~6岁儿童其他感染性腹泻发病数与同期气象因素的Spearman相关性

    Table  2.   Spearman correlation between incidence of other infectious diarrhea and meteorological factors in children aged 0−6 years in Ninghai

      指标日发病数日平均温差日平均气温日平均湿度日平均降水量日空气质量指数
    日发病数1.00
    日平均温差−0.118a1.00
    日平均气温−0.291a0.295a1.00
    日平均湿度−0.016−0.471a0.092a1.00
    日平均降水量−0.089a−0.272a0.301a0.660a1.00
    日空气质量指数0.101a0.194a−0.358a−0.394a−0.345a1.00
    注:a. P<0.05
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  3  日平均气温对宁海县0~6岁儿童其他感染性腹泻发病风险的累积滞后效应

    Table  3.   Cumulative lag effect of different daily average temperatures on risk of other infectious diarrhea in children aged 0−6 years in Ninghai

    日平均气温(℃)累积滞后天数(d)相对危险度95%置信区间
    −5 0 0.815a 0.730~0.910
    0~1 0.693a 0.563~0.854
    0~3 0.567a 0.389~0.826
    0~7 0.590 0.311~1.120
    0~14 1.405 0.477~4.136
    0~21 3.410 0.788~14.755
    0~30 16.601a 2.667~103.333
    P5=5 0 0.921a 0.880~0.965
    0~1 0.856a 0.785~0.933
    0~3 0.755a 0.648~0.881
    0~7 0.641a 0.495~0.829
    0~14 0.565a 0.369~0.866
    0~21 0.519a 0.294~0.918
    0~30 0.553 0.270~1.132
    P25=11.5 0 0.973 0.934~1.013
    0~1 0.944 0.875~1.018
    0~3 0.882 0.772~1.008
    0~7 0.754a 0.605~0.938
    0~14 0.559a 0.389~0.803
    0~21 0.438a 0.266~0.721
    0~30 0.335a 0.173~0.648
    P75=24.5 0 1.014 0.970~1.060
    0~1 1.030 0.948~1.120
    0~3 1.067 0.922~1.235
    0~7 1.156 0.914~1.461
    0~14 1.232 0.849~1.786
    0~21 1.059 0.643~1.745
    0~30 0.900 0.477~1.698
    P95=30 0 0.996 0.937~1.058
    0~1 0.998 0.890~1.118
    0~3 1.020 0.837~1.244
    0~7 1.132 0.826~1.550
    0~14 1.366 0.827~2.255
    0~21 1.291 0.649~2.569
    0~30 1.165 0.465~2.918
    34 0 0.970 0.876~1.075
    0~1 0.952 0.787~1.151
    0~3 0.948 0.684~1.315
    0~7 1.057 0.644~1.735
    0~14 1.475 0.703~3.095
    0~21 1.712 0.634~4.622
    0~30 1.844 0.480~7.075
    注:a. P<0.05
    下载: 导出CSV
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  • 收稿日期:  2021-12-06
  • 网络出版日期:  2022-10-19
  • 刊出日期:  2022-12-01

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