Incidence trend and epidemiological characteristics of other infectious diarrhea in Yunnan, 2010−2020
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摘要:
目的 了解云南省其他感染性腹泻的流行病学特征，为制定高效防治策略、措施提供科学依据。 方法 采用描述性和分析性研究、圆形分布法、空间自相关和局部空间自相关等方法，对2010—2020年云南省其他感染性腹泻疫情资料进行统计分析。 结果 2010—2020年云南省共报告其他感染性腹泻254 279例，年均发病率为3.65/万，发病率及发病例数总体呈逐年上升趋势（β=0.16，P<0.01）。 云南省其他感染性腹泻的发病呈明显单峰分布，每年的11月至次年4月为发病高峰时段。 年均发病率排在前3位的为昆明市（11.40/万）、西双版纳（10.49/万）、玉溪市（9.93/万），共报告121 553例，占全省病例数的47.81%，发病空间聚集范围逐渐形成以昆明市为中心的趋势。 男女性别比为1.29∶1， 0～5岁年龄组发病数最高，共189 623例（75.00%）；发病最多的人群为散居儿童，共210 481例（73.19%）。 结论 2010—2020云南省其他感染性腹泻发病呈逐年上升趋势，针对高发地区，应加大健康教育与健康促进力度，对重点人群开展全生命周期智能预警与预测干预行动，构建环境卫生治理体系，加强环境卫生治理和三级预防能力。 Abstract:Objective To understand the epidemiological characteristics of other infectious diarrhea in Yunnan province and provide evidence for the effective prevention and control of other infectious diarrhea. Methods Descriptive epidemiological method, analytical research method, circular distribution method, spatial autocorrelation analysis and local autocorrelation analysis were used for the description and statistical analysis of the incidence data of other infectious diarrhea in Yunnan from 2010 to 2020. Results During 2010−2020, a total of 254 279 cases of infectious diarrhea were reported in Yunnan, with an average annual incidence rate of 3.65/10 000. The case number and incidence rate increased year by year (β= 0.16, P<0.01). The seasonal incidence showed an obvious single peak distribution, and the peak period was during November-April. The top three areas with the high incidence rates were Kunming (11.40/10 000), Xishuangbanna (10.49/10 000) and Yuxi (9.93/10 000). A total of 121 553 cases were reported in these areas, accounting for 47.81% of provincial total. The cases were mainly distributed in Kunming, and the affected-area expanded year by year. A total of 286 076 cases in men and 222 482 cases in women were reported with a male to female ratio of 1.29:1. The number of cases (189 623 cases) in the 0−5-year-old age group was highest (75.00%). The case number in children living scatteredly was highest (210 481 cases, 73.19%). Conclusion The incidence of other infectious diarrhea increased in Yunnan from 2010 to 2020. In high-risk areas, health education and promotion efforts should be enhanced. It is necessary to conduct early warning and predictive intervention for the entire human life cycle in key population, establish environmental health governance system and strengthen the environmental health governance and disease prevention mechanism at three levels. -
图 1 2010－2020年云南省其他感染性腹泻报告发病数和发病率
Figure 1. Reported cases and incidence rate of other infectious diarrhea in Yunnan, 2010−2020
图 2 基于指数模型的2021年和2022年云南省其他感染性腹泻发病率预测
Figure 2. Index model based prediction of incidence rate of infectious diarrhea in Yunnan, 2021−2022
图 3 2010－2020年云南其他感染性腹泻的月分布
Figure 3. Monthly reported cases of other infectious diarrhea in Yunnan, 2010−2020
图 4 2010年和2020年云南省其他感染性腹泻发病率地区分布
Figure 4. Spatial distribution of reported cases of other infectious diarrhea in Yunnan in 2010 and 2020
图 5 2010－2020年云南省其他感染性腹泻发病率局部空间自相关分析
Figure 5. Local spatial autocorrelation analysis on incidence of other infectious diarrhea in Yunnan, 2010−2020
表 1 2010－2020年云南省其他感染性腹泻病例圆形分布
Table 1. Results of circular distribution analysis on reported cases of other infectious diarrhea in Yunnan, 2010−2020
年份 角度集中度（γ） 平均角（$\bar{\alpha} $） 标准差（s） 高峰日（月－日） 流行高峰期（月－日） Z值 P值 2010 0.06 31.67 135.31 02－01 09－13至次年06－15 29.82 <0.01 2011 0.13 319.24 114.96 11－19 07－23至次年03－15 186.44 <0.01 2012 0.12 7.31 117.50 01－07 09－05至次年05－03 191.79 <0.01 2013 0.11 351.88 119.24 12－21 08－20至次年04－14 210.94 <0.01 2014 0.15 16.90 111.86 01－17 09－22至次年05－08 353.39 <0.01 2015 0.21 30.42 101.27 01－30 10－16至次年05－11 811.51 <0.01 2016 0.17 27.74 107.10 01－28 10－06至次年05－13 576.37 <0.01 2017 0.23 13.80 98.25 01－13 10－02至次年04－22 1501.77 <0.01 2018 0.32 21.14 86.25 01－21 10－20至次年04－16 3883.31 <0.01 2019 0.28 53.20 91.49 01－22 11－17至次年05－24 3916.32 <0.01 2020 0.22 7.03 100.19 01－07 09－22至次年04－16 1767.96 <0.01 合计 0.20 24.48 102.01 01－24 10－09至次年05－06 10683.83 <0.01 
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表 2 2010－2020年云南省其他感染性腹泻病例全局空间自相关分析
Table 2. Global spatial autocorrelation analysis on reported cases of other infectious diarrhea in Yunnan, 2010−2020
年份 Moran's I值 平均角标准差 Z值 P值 2010 −0.040 0.141 0.229 0.383 2011 0.029 0.172 0.595 0.264 2012 0.022 0.170 0.581 0.251 2013 −0.031 0.174 0.275 0.367 2014 −0.085 0.174 −0.055 0.478 2015 −0.067 0.169 0.046 0.429 2016 −0.067 0.172 0.050 0.443 2017 0.010 0.163 0.520 0.270 2018 −0.065 0.170 0.327 0.451 2019 −0.033 0.171 0.207 0.371 2020 0.113 0.173 1.075 0.143
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表 3 2010－2020年云南省其他感染性腹泻病例人群分布
Table 3. Population distribution of reported cases of other infectious diarrhea in Yunnan, 2010−2020
组别 发病数（例） 构成比（%） 性别 男性 143 038 56.25 女性 111 241 43.75 年龄组（岁） 0～ 198 319 77.99 10～ 7 538 2.96 20～ 9 663 3.80 30～ 8 152 3.21 40～ 8 678 3.41 50～ 8 307 3.27 60～ 6 703 2.64 70～ 4 904 1.93 80～ 2 015 0.79 职业 幼托儿童 7 567 2.98 散居儿童 186 637 73.40 学生 11 183 4.40 农民 26 606 10.46 家政、家务及待业 5 673 2.23 离退休人员 5 294 2.08 工人 2 117 0.83 公务人员及职员 2 201 0.87 不详 1 139 0.45 其他 5 862 2.30
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