Objective   To analysis the mortality, probability of premature death and change trends of four chronic diseases (cancer, cardiovascular /cerebrovascular disease, diabetes and chronic respiratory disease) in Henan province from 2015 to 2020, and evaluate the possibility of achieving the goal of “Healthy China 2030” to reduce the probability of premature death due to chronic diseases.

  Methods   The death data were collected and from 36 death cause surveillance sites in Henan from 2015 to 2020. The crude mortality rate, standardized mortality rate, constituent ratio, probability of premature death, annual percentage change (APC) were calculated. By comparing with the goal of “Healthy China 2030” for premature death reduction (−30%), the possibility of achieving the goal was evaluated.

  Results   From 2015 to 2020, the proportion of the four chronic disease-caused death in total death increased from 87.67% to 90.47%, showing an upward trend (APC=0.57%). The crude mortality rate and standardized mortality rate of the four chronic diseases in total population, men and women all showed upward trends, the differences were significant (P<0.05). The probability of premature death in total population decreased from 17.98% in 2015 to 17.19% in 2020. The probability of premature death in men (APC=−0.81%), women (APC=−1.45%), urban area (APC=−0.91%) and rural area (APC=−0.90%) all showed downward trends. The annual probability of premature death was about 2 times higher in men than in women and higher in rural area than in urban area. The decrease of premature death caused by chronic respiratory diseases was most obvious (APC=−6.81%), followed by that caused by cardiovascular/cerebrovascular disease and cancer, but the premature death caused by diabetes increased (APC=1.94%). According to the prediction of the decrease rate, the decreases of the probability of premature death of the four chronic diseases and the probability of premature deaths caused by cardiovascular/cerebrovascular disease, cancer and diabetes would not meet the requirements of “Healthy China 2030” by 2030, except chronic respiratory disease.

  Conclusion   From 2015 to 2020, the probability of premature death caused by the four chronic diseases in Henan decreased, but the goal in “Healthy China 2030” might not be achieved. It is suggested to further strengthen the comprehensive prevention and control of chronic diseases and conduct intervention targeting the risk factors for chronic diseases to reduce the probability of premature death due to chronic diseases, and achieve the goal of “Healthy China 2030”.