Risk assessment of public health emergencies concerned in the mainland of China, May 2022
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摘要:
目的 评估2022年5月在我国大陆地区发生或者可能由境外输入的突发公共卫生事件风险。 方法 根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息，采用专家会商法，并通过视频会议形式邀请省（自治区、直辖市）疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。 结果 总体上，预计5月全国新型冠状病毒肺炎（COVID-19）疫情整体形势将继续呈现趋稳向好态势，但仍然存在反弹风险，需要加快局部聚集性疫情处置，及时完善防控措施，做好疫情应对准备。 进食毒蘑菇导致的中毒事件预计在5月以后逐渐上升。 英国等多国报告儿童不明原因急性肝炎疫情，需要跟踪相关监测和研究进展。 结论 需要对COVID-19予以特别关注，对毒蘑菇中毒予以一般关注。 Abstract:Objective To assess the risk of public health emergencies, both the indigenous ones and the imported ones, which might occur in the mainland of China in May 2022. Methods An internet based expert counsel was conducted to analyze the surveillance data of public health emergencies and priority communicable diseases in China reported through different channels, and the experts in all provincial centers for disease control and prevention attended this video conference. Results It is expected that the overall situation of COVID-19 in China will continue to be stable and eased in May. Although the risk of the situation worsening may still exist. Considering the potential risks, it is still necessary to quicken local epidemic response, to optimize prevention and control measurement in time and to get fully prepared before the epidemic starts. It is also expected that toxic mushroom poisoning events will gradually increase since May. Acute and severe hepatitis of unknown origin in children are reported in U.K. and multiple other countries, whose further related surveillance and research progress need to be tracked. Conclusion Special attention should be paid to COVID-19. General attentions should be paid to toxic mushroom poisoning events. -
Key words:
- Public health emergency /
- Communicable disease /
- Risk assessment
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图 1 近期我国内地及港澳台地区需关注的传染病疫情和突发公共卫生事件（截至2022年5月7日）
Figure 1. Recent communicable disease outbreaks or public health emergencies with great concern in China, including Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan (as of 7 May 2022)
图 2 近期全球需关注的传染病疫情和突发公共卫生事件（截至2022年5月7日）
注：截至2022年5月6日，全球226个国家和地区累计报告新型冠状病毒肺炎确诊病例超过 5.13亿，累计报告死亡约625万。2022年全球报告病例数于3月月初至中旬出现小幅回升后持续下降；新增死亡数则在3月中下旬小幅回升后持续下降，目前7日移动平均新增死亡数接近峰值之前的1/7（来源：WHO）
Figure 2. Recent communicable disease outbreaks or public health emergencies with global concern （as of 7 May 2022）
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[1] 涂文校, 祝菲, 李超, 等. 2018年1月中国大陆需关注的突发公共卫生事件风险评估[J]. 疾病监测,2018,33(1):3–6. DOI:10.3784/j.issn.1003−9961.2018.01.003.Tu WX, Zhu F, Li C, et al. Risk assessment of public health emergency concerned in mainland China, January 2018[J]. Dis Surveill, 2018, 33(1): 3–6. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003−9961.2018.01.003. [2] 孟玲, 李超, 杨静, 等. 2018年3月全国突发公共卫生事件及需关注的传染病风险评估[J]. 疾病监测,2018,33(3):184–187. DOI:10.3784/j.issn.1003−9961.2018.03.004.Meng L, Li C, Yang J, et al. Risk assessment of public health emergencies concerned in the mainland of China, March 2018[J]. Dis Surveill, 2018, 33(3): 184–187. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003−9961.2018.03.004. -
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