崔瑾钰, 张业武, 苏雪梅. 2010-2019年中国猩红热发病时空扫描分析[J]. 疾病监测, 2023, 38(3): 287-293. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202209300433
引用本文: 崔瑾钰, 张业武, 苏雪梅. 2010-2019年中国猩红热发病时空扫描分析[J]. 疾病监测, 2023, 38(3): 287-293. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202209300433
Cui Jinyu, Zhang Yewu, Su Xuemei. Spatiotemporal scan statistic of scarlet fever in China, 2010−2019[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2023, 38(3): 287-293. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202209300433
Citation: Cui Jinyu, Zhang Yewu, Su Xuemei. Spatiotemporal scan statistic of scarlet fever in China, 2010−2019[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2023, 38(3): 287-293. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202209300433

2010-2019年中国猩红热发病时空扫描分析

Spatiotemporal scan statistic of scarlet fever in China, 2010−2019

  • 摘要:
      目的   探讨我国2010—2019年猩红热发病的时空分布特征,为制定有效的防控措施提供依据。
      方法  收集我国31个省(自治区、直辖市)2010年1月1日至2019年12月31日猩红热上报病例信息,以月份为时间聚类单位,以地市为最小空间单位,使用SaTScan 10.0.2软件进行时空扫描分析,使用ArcGIS 10.7软件实现分析结果的可视化。
      结果  2010—2019年,我国共报告猩红热病例596220例,年均发病率为4.37/10万。 我国猩红热的发病整体呈现上升的趋势,2010年发病率最低,为1.62/10万,2019年发病率最高,为6.04/10万。 猩红热的发病呈现双峰分布,每年5—6月和11—12月为猩红热的高发期。 男性发病数占总发病数的61.14%。 10岁以下儿童是猩红热的高发年龄段,占总发病数的93.27%。 猩红热的主要聚集区为我国的东北地区、华北地区和西北地区,毗邻猩红热高发省份的地市发病的相对危险度有所升高。 位于长江以南地区的猩红热聚集区域有所增多,多聚集于上海市、深圳市、厦门市、乐山市、大理市和丽江市等经济较为发达的地市以及杭州市、长沙市、成都市、昆明市、贵阳市等省会城市。
      结论  我国猩红热的发病呈现逐年上升的趋势,夏季和冬季为高发期,多发于儿童群体中。 北方地区发病率高于南方地区,南方地区存在猩红热发病聚集区域增多的现象。 猩红热高发省份周边的地市发病风险有所升高。 应加强对托幼机构和小学儿童的疾病监测,对托幼机构和学校等区域发生的聚集性疫情进行及时的调查处置,阻断猩红热的传播。

     

    Abstract:
      Objective   To understand the characteristics of scarlet fever's spatial and temporal distributions, as well as the clustering areas, in China from 2010 to 2019, and to provide evidence for scarlet fever prevention and control in China.
      Methods  Scarlet fever cases in 31 Chinese provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) were collected from the Chinese notifiable infectious disease system between 2010 and 2019. The month is the time cluster unit, and the city is the minimum spatial unit.The spatial-temporal scan statistic was calculated with the software SaTScan 10.0.2, and the results were visualized with ArcGIS 10.7.
      Results  From 2010 to 2019, 596220 cases of scarlet fever were reported in China, with an annual incidence of 4.37 per 100 000 population. Scarlet fever incidence in China increased overall, with the lowest incidence of 1.62 / 100 000 in 2010 and the highest incidence of 6.04 / 100 000 in 2019. Two peaks were found in the annual temporal distributions in terms of incidence. The first peak occurred between May and June, and the second between November and December. Male cases accounted for 61.14% of the total number of cases. Scarlet fever was most common in children under the age of ten, accounting for 93.27% of the total incidence. The majority of scarlet fever cases were found in the Northeast. The main clusters of scarlet fever were found in the Northeast, North, and Northwest. The relative risk of scarlet fever has increased in cities adjacent to provinces with a high incidence of scarlet fever. Scarlet fever cluster areas have increased in the southern region, with the majority of them concentrated in economically developed cities and provincial capitals, including Shanghai, Shenzhen, Xiamen, Leshan, Dali, Lijiang, Hangzhou, Changsha, Chengdu, Kunming, Guiyang and other cities.
      Conclusion  Scarlet fever has grown more common in China since 2010. Children are more likely to be infected in summer and winter. The northern region had a higher incidence than the southern region. Scarlet fever is getting more common in southern China. Scarlet fever risk has increased in cities near high-incidence provinces. To stop the spread of scarlet fever, it is necessary to strengthen disease surveillance in kindergartens and primary schools, as well as investigate and deal with clustered epidemics in a timely manner.

     

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