Abstract:
Objective To analyze the disease burden of interstitial lung disease and pulmonary sarcoidosis (ILD&) and its trend in China from 1990 to 2019, and provide theoretical evidence for the prevention and control of ILD&PS.
Methods Based on the data of Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019, the prevalence, mortality and absolute number of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of ILD&PS in China from 1990 to 2019 were obtained, including age-standardized rate (ASR). Joinpoint linear regression model was used to calculate average annual percent change (AAPC) and analyze the change trends of prevalence, mortality and DALYs of ILD&PS. Age-period-cohort (APC) model was used to analyze the effects of age, period and cohort on changes in the mortality.
Results The prevalence, mortality and absolute number of DALYs of ILD&PS showed increasing trends in China from 1990 to 2019. In 2019, there were 722410 cases 95% uncertain interval (UI): 586951–872704, 8181 deaths (95%UI: 5796–10302) of ILD&PS, and the absolute number of DALYs was 240576 person years (95%UI: 189934–299740). In general, the age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) (AAPC=0.58%, P<0.05) showed an upward trend, while the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) (AAPC=−0.07%, P>0.05)and age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDR) (AAPC=−0.20%, P<0.05) showed downward trends, from 1990 to 2019. The trends in women were similar to the general trends, but the ASMR (AAPC=0.23%, P<0.05) and ASDR (AAPC=0.04%, P>0.05) in men showed upward trends. The prevalence, mortality and absolute number of DALYs of ILD&PS generally increased first and then decreased with age, with the peaks at about 70 years old. Except for the sustained growth of ASMR, ASPR and ASDR increased first and then decreased with age. The mortality APC model suggested that the net drift value during 1990-2019 was negative (−0.50%, P<0.05), the death risk increased with age, and the risk of death decreased in the period after 2010 and in birth cohort after 1955. But the risk of death was higher in men.
Conclusion Although the overall ASMR and ASDR of ILD&PS showed downward trends in China from 1990 to 2019, and APC analysis also showed a downtrend in mortality rate, the prevalence, ASPR, mortality and absolute number of DALYs still showed gradual increase trends. The burden of ILD&PS remains heavy, especially in men. So more works are need to do in the prevention and treatment of ILD&PS in China.