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摘要:
目的 评估2022年11月新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)疫情全球流行情况及对我国的输入风险。 方法 根据美国约翰斯·霍普金斯大学公开发布的每日COVID-19疫情数据,结合牛津大学发布的政策严格性指数,采用流行病学描述方法,通过总体概述、WHO各区及重点国家疫情趋势综合评估和周边十四国疫情与防控政策综合分析,对全球COVID-19疫情风险进行综合、全面与及时的评估。 对于各国评估结果,用“全球重点关注国家”、“WHO各分区一般关注国家”和“周边特别关注国家”予以表示。 结果 与2022年10月相比,全球11月新增确诊病例上升了1.6%,新增死亡病例下降了1.6%。 除欧洲区和东地中海区新增确诊病例增长率分别下降41.4%和34.1%,其余各区均有不同程度的上升趋势,增幅在19.6%~122.2%之间;新增死亡病例除东南亚区和西太平洋区分别上升171.8%和17.5%,其余各区均有不同程度的下降,降幅在2.4%~27.3%之间。 日本、韩国、美国、中国、巴西、澳大利亚和希腊为全球重点关注国家。 结论 全球新增确诊病例11月整体呈小幅上升趋势,美洲区(南)、非洲区和西太平洋区疫情加重,应予以重点关注,及时沟通并调整防控措施。 Abstract:Objective To assess the global epidemic of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in November 2022 and the risk of importation. Methods According to the daily COVID-19 data publicly released by Johns Hopkins University, combined with the policy stringency index published by the University of Oxford, an epidemiological description method was used to provide a comprehensive and timely assessment of the global epidemic risk through a general overview, a comprehensive assessment of the epidemic trends in WHO regions and key countries, as well as a comprehensive analysis of the epidemic and prevention and control policies in 14 neighboring countries. The assessment results for each country are expressed as “countries of global concern”, “countries of the general concern in each WHO sub-region” and “neighboring countries of special concern”. Results Compared with October 2022, the global monthly new confirmed cases increased by 1.6%, and the global monthly new deaths decreased by 1.6%. Except for the Europe region (−41.4%) and Eastern Mediterranean region (−34.1%), the number of new cases in the remaining regions increased to varying degrees (between 19.6% and 122.2%). Except for South-East Asia region (171.8%) and Western Pacific region (17.5%), the number of new deaths in the remaining regions decreased to varying degrees (between 2.4% and 27.3%). Japan, Korea, America, China, Brazil, Australia and Greece are countries of global concern. Conclusion The global daily newly confirmed cases showed an upward trend in November, especially in Americas, Africa and Western Pacific region, which should be paid special attention to, timely communicate and adjusted measures. -
Key words:
- Coronavirus disease 2019 /
- Risk assessment /
- Neighboring countries
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表 1 WHO各区新增确诊和死亡病例概况(2022年11月)
Table 1. General situation of new confirmed cases and deaths in each WHO region (November, 2022)
WHO分区 人口占比(%) 新增确诊病例 新增死亡病例 病例数(例) 占比(%) 增长率(%) 病例数(例) 占比(%) 增长率(%) 欧洲区 12.0 4 062 410 32.1 −41.4 17 578 40.7 −13.9 非洲区 14.5 41 044 0.3 67.8 182 0.4 −5.2 美洲区(南) 5.7 698 227 5.5 122.2 3 020 7.0 −2.4 东地中海区 9.4 43 434 0.3 −34.1 221 0.5 −27.3 西太平洋区 25.0 6 124 616 48.4 63.8 7 361 17.1 17.5 美洲区(北) 7.5 1 470 671 11.6 19.6 11 706 27.1 −6.1 东南亚区 25.9 213 846 1.7 40.4 3 099 7.2 171.8 表 2 月新增确诊排行前10位的国家新增确诊和死亡病例概况
Table 2. Information about new confirmed cases and deaths in top 10 countries with high incidence
国家 WHO分区 新增确诊病例 新增死亡病例 2022年11月(例) 2022年10月(例) 增长率(%) 2022年11月(例) 2022年10月(例) 增长率(%) 日本 西太平洋 2 513 057 943 420 166.4 2 910 1 648 76.6 韩国 西太平洋 1 598 504 725 548 120.3 1 392 667 108.7 美国 美洲(北) 1 346 591 1 067 614 26.1 10 009 10 677 −6.3 法国 欧洲 1 055 876 1 382 287 −23.6 2 118 1 720 23.1 德国 欧洲 928 469 2 184 902 −57.5 4 399 3 480 26.4 中国 西太平洋 774 599 178 178 334.7 46 215 −78.6 意大利 欧洲 729 637 1 001 771 −27.2 1 997 1 951 2.4 巴西 美洲(南) 412 341 142 734 188.9 1 703 1 926 −11.6 澳大利亚 西太平洋 282 110 136 049 107.4 477 439 8.7 希腊 欧洲 269 490 215 008 25.3 735 463 58.7 -
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