Risk assessment of public health emergencies concerned in the mainland of China, December 2022
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摘要:
目的 评估2022年12月在我国大陆地区发生或者可能由境外输入的突发公共卫生事件风险。 方法 根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息，采用专家会商法，并通过视频会议形式邀请省（自治区、直辖市）疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。 结果 预计12月突发公共卫生事件报告数将较11月上升。 我国主要将面临调整新型冠状病毒肺炎防控措施后疫情快速传播扩散及医疗服务需求激增的风险。 预计今冬明春南北方省份可能会出现季节性流感高发期，多个型别和亚型共同流行。 随着气温降低，12月非职业性一氧化碳中毒事件可能较11月增多。 结论 对新型冠状病毒肺炎予以特别关注，对季节性流感和非职业性一氧化碳中毒予以一般关注。 Abstract:Objective To assess the risk of public health emergencies occurring in mainland China or possibly imported from outside China in December 2022. Methods Based on various data and departmental notification information on domestic and foreign public health emergencies reports and surveillance of key infectious diseases, the expert consultation method was used and experts from provincial (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government) centers for disease prevention and control were invited to participate in the assessment by video conference. Results The number of reported public health emergencies is expected to rise in December compared to November. China will mainly face the risk of rapid spread and spread of the epidemic and surge in demand for medical services after adjusting preventive and control measures for the new crown pneumonia. A high seasonal influenza outbreak with multiple types and subtypes co-prevalent is expected to occur in the southern and northern provinces this winter and spring. With lower temperatures, the number of non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning events may increase in December compared to November. Conclusions Special attention is given to novel coronavirus pneumonia, and general attention is given to seasonal influenza and nonoccupational carbon monoxide poisoning. -
Key words:
- Public health emergency /
- Communicable disease /
- Risk assessment
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图 1 近期我国内地及港澳台地区需关注的传染病疫情和突发公共卫生事件（截至2022年12月6日）
Figure 1. Recent communicable disease outbreaks or public health emergencies with great concern in China, including Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan (as of 6 December 2022)
图 2 近期全球需关注的传染病疫情和突发公共卫生事件（截至 2022年12月6日）
注：截至2022年12月5日，全球236个国家和地区累计报告新型冠状病毒肺炎确诊病例6.41亿，累计报告死亡662万。全球报告新增例数从8月初起逐步下降，新增死亡数波动下降，需综合考虑多国监测和检测策略的调整对疫情数据的影响。WHO认为目前世界上至少90%的人口对新型冠状病毒有一定程度的免疫力。奥密克戎毒株亚型BA.5仍为全球优势流行毒株（来源：WHO）
Figure 2. Recent communicable disease outbreaks or public health emergencies with global concern (as of 6 December 2022)
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[1] 涂文校, 周蕾, 王锐, 等. 2013年6月全国突发公共卫生事件及需关注的传染病风险评估[J]. 疾病监测,2013,28(6):424–428. DOI:10.3784/j.issn.1003−9961.2013.6.003.Tu WX, Zhou L, Wang R, et al. Risk assessment of public health emergency and concerned infectious diseases in China, June 2013[J]. Dis Surveill, 2013, 28(6): 424–428. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003−9961.2013.6.003. [2] 孟玲, 李超, 杨静, 等. 2018年3月全国突发公共卫生事件及需关注的传染病风险评估[J]. 疾病监测,2018,33(3):184–187. DOI:10.3784/j.issn.1003−9961.2018.03.004.Meng L, Li C, Yang J, et al. Risk assessment of public health emergencies concerned in the mainland of China, March 2018[J]. Dis Surveill, 2018, 33(3): 184–187. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003−9961.2018.03.004. -
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