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摘要:
目的 评估2023年4月在我国（不含香港、澳门特别行政区和台湾地区，下同）发生或者可能由境外输入的突发公共卫生事件风险。 方法 根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息，采用专家会商法，并通过视频会议形式邀请省（自治区、直辖市）疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。 结果 预计2023年4月突发公共卫生事件报告数可能与3月持平，以季节性流感、诺如病毒肠炎等传染病类事件为主。 目前我国新型冠状病毒感染疫情处于低水平传播阶段，人群前期自然感染及疫苗接种所形成的混合免疫屏障对我国主要流行株保护作用依然较高，预计4月我国新型冠状病毒感染疫情维持低水平传播的可能性高，需警惕新变异株及再感染疫情。 流感疫情将在4月持续下降至流行间歇期水平。 诺如病毒肠炎疫情有可能回落。 我国大部分省份尤其是北方省份布鲁氏菌病病例数将上升。 结论 对新型冠状病毒感染予以特别关注，对季节性流感、诺如病毒肠炎和布鲁氏菌病予以一般关注。 Abstract:Objective To assess the risk of public health emergencies that may occur or be imported from abroad in China (except Hong Kong and Macao Special Administrative Regions and Taiwan Province, the same below) in April 2023. Methods Based on various data and departmental notification information on domestic and foreign public health emergencies reports and surveillance of key infectious diseases, the expert consultation method was used and experts from provincial (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government) centers for disease prevention and control were invited to participate in the assessment by video conference. Results It is predicted that the incidence of public health emergencies would be similar in April 2023 to March 2023. The main public health emergencies would be infectious diseases such as seasonal influenza and norovirus enteritis. Given SARS-COV-2 infection is currently in the stage of low-level transmission and the mixed immune barrier formed by previous natural infection and vaccination in Chinese population still has a high protective effect on the main circulating strains in China, the spread of SARS-COV-2 infection in China may remain a low level in April. However, SARS-COV-2 variants and re-infection should be vigilant. Influenza activity would continue to decrease to the inter-seasonal level in April. The outbreaks of norovirus enteritis may decrease. The number of brucellosis cases would rise in most provinces, especially in the northern provinces. Conclusion Special attention is given to COVID-19, and general attention is given to seasonal influenza, norovirus enteritis and brucelliasis. -
Key words:
- Public health emergency /
- Communicable disease /
- Risk assessment
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图 1 近期我国需关注的传染病疫情和突发公共卫生事件（截至 2023 年 4 月 6 日）
Figure 1. Recent communicable disease outbreaks or public health emergencies with great concern in China (as of 6 April 2023)
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