2023年3月全球新型冠状病毒感染疫情风险评估

Risk assessment of global COVID-19 pandemic in March 2023

  • 摘要:
      目的  评估2023年3月新型冠状病毒感染(COVID-19)疫情全球流行情况及对我国的输入风险。
      方法  根据世界卫生组织公开发布的每日COVID-19疫情数据,结合全球COVID-19入境政策分析,采用流行病学描述方法,通过总体概述、各大洲及重点国家疫情趋势综合评估和周边十四国疫情分析,对全球COVID-19疫情风险进行综合、全面与及时的评估。
      结果  与2023年2月相比,3月全球月新增确诊病例环比下降了16.09%,月新增死亡病例环比下降了25.44%。 3月北美洲和亚洲新增确诊和死亡病例均有所减少,欧洲和非洲新增确诊和死亡病例均有增加,南美洲和大洋洲新增确诊病例增加但新增死亡病例减少。 全球月新增确诊病例前10位国家中,法国和英国月环比增长显著,为全球重点关注国家。 各大洲月新增确诊病例前3位国家中,月环比增长显著的国家有南美洲区的智利和秘鲁,非洲区的南非、毛里求斯和突尼斯,大洋洲的澳大利亚、新西兰和密克罗尼西亚,为各大洲一般关注国家。 巴基斯坦、印度、尼泊尔和阿富汗是周边十四国特别关注国家,3月病例呈上升趋势且入境政策宽松。
      结论  3月全球整体呈现下降的趋势,但有部分国家新增确诊病例和死亡病例出现增多,应持续关注重点国家,做好持续监测,并同相关机构建立沟通机制,互通有无,及时预警。

     

    Abstract:
      Objective   To assess the global epidemic of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in March 2023 and the risk of importation.
      Methods   According to the daily COVID-19 data publicly released by World Health Organization, combined with the travel restrictions published by Sherpa, an epidemiological description method was used to provide a comprehensive and timely assessment of the global epidemic risk through a general overview, a comprehensive assessment of the epidemic trends in each continent and key countries, as well as a comprehensive analysis of the epidemic and travel requirements in 14 neighbouring countries.
      Results   Compared with the previous month, the number of confirmed cases and deaths globally decreased by 16.09% and 25.44% respectively in March 2023. Daily new confirmed cases and deaths decreased in North America and Asia, increased in Europe and Africa, and new cases increased but new deaths decreased in South America and Oceania. France and England were countries with global concern, the new cases of which increased significantly this month compared with the last month. Chile and Peru in the South America, South Africa, Mauritius and Tunisia in the Africa , Australia, New Zealand and Micronesia in Oceania also showed a rapid rise in the number of new cases in March. Special concern should be paid to Pakistan, India, Nepal and Afghanistan among the 14 land-boarding countries, whose cases rose in March and there were no international travel restriction related to COVID-19.
      Conclusion   The overall global trend in March was down, but there was an increase in new confirmed cases and deaths in some countries. It is necessary to continuously monitor countries with global concern and establish a communication mechanism with relevant agencies to exchange information and provide timely warnings.

     

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