Epidemiological characteristics and spatial distribution of human brucellosis in Beijing, 2013−2022
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摘要:
目的 了解北京市近年来人间布鲁氏菌病（布病）流行情况，为布病防控措施的制定和调整提供依据。 方法 采用描述流行病学分析的方法，对2013—2022年北京市人间布病流行病学特征进行分析，应用空间自相关及热点分析方法，对北京市乡镇街道级别布病发病率情况进行分析，探索北京市布病空间分布特征。 结果 2013—2022年，北京市报告本地布病病例1307例，年平均发病率0.61/10万，病例数及发病率逐年波动，2021—2022年发病呈现上升趋势；春夏季（3—9月）为报告病例高峰，2019—2022年最高峰为每年6、7月，较既往年份有所错后；男性发病率高于女性（χ2=383.642，P<0.001）；40～59岁年龄组报告病例最多（722例，55.24%）；职业以农民（43.15%）、家务及待业人员（22.80%）为主；郊区发病率较高，2013 — 2015年发病呈现出地域上的逐年扩散趋势，2016—2020年地域分布范围逐年递减，2021—2022年分布范围再次上升；2013—2018年及2022年布病发病率存在空间自相关特征；热点地区位于郊区的部分乡镇街道，热点地区数量随报告年份逐年波动。 结论 北京市人间布病病例数及发病率逐年波动，郊区发病率较高，郊区的部分乡镇街道为热点地区，应密切关注流行趋势变化情况，在高发地区及热点地区加强病例监测。 Abstract:Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of human brucellosis in Beijing, and provide evidence for the development and improvement of prevention and control measures. Methods Epidemiological characteristics of brucellosis in Beijing at township (street) level during 2013−2022 were analyzed with descriptive method, and spatial autocorrelation and hotpot area analysis was conducted to understand the geographical clustering of human brucellosis with Global Moran's I statistics and Getis-Ord Gi in ArcMap. Results There were 1307 human brucellosis cases reported in Beijing from 2013 to 2022. The annual cases number and incidence fluctuated and showed an increasing trend during 2021−2022, the annual incidence was 0.61/100 000. The peak of reported cases was found during spring and summer (March-September), but the peak was found during June-July from 2019−2022. The incidence in men was higher than that in women (χ2=383.642, P<0.001), and most cases were in 40-59 age group (722 cases, 55.24%). The cases in farmers and the jobless or unemployed accounted for 43.15% and 22.80% of the total respectively. The areas with high incidence were in suburb of Beijing. The areas affected by the disease showed an expanding trend from 2013 to 2015, and a decreasing trend from 2016 to 2020, then an increased trend again during 2021−2022. The incidence showed spatial autocorrelation characteristics from 2013 to 2018 and in 2022. The hotspot areas were found in the streets of some townships in the suburbs, and numbers of hotspot areas fluctuated by years. Conclusion The reported cases and incidence of human brucellosis fluctuated by years in Beijing. The areas with high incidence were distributed in the suburb of Beijing and the hotspot areas were found in the streets of some townships in the suburbs. Close attention needs to be paid to the changes in the incidence trend, hotspot areas and areas with high incidence of human brucellosis, and the case surveillance should be strengthened in areas with high incidence and hotspot areas. -
Key words:
- Beijing /
- Brucellosis /
- Epidemiological characteristic /
- Spatial distribution
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图 1 2013－2022年北京市布鲁氏菌病报告病例数月分布情况
Figure 1. Monthly distribution of reported cases of brucellosis in Beijing from 2013 to 2022
图 2 2013－2022年北京市布鲁氏菌病报告病例职业构成情况
Figure 2. Occupational compositions of brucellosis cases in Beijing from 2013 to 2022
图 3 2013－2022年北京市各乡镇街道布鲁氏菌病发病率情况
Figure 3. Incidence of brucellosis in Beijing at town level from 2013 to 2022
图 4 2013－2018年及2022年北京市各乡镇街道布鲁氏菌病发病率热点分析
Figure 4. Hotspots of brucellosis in Beijing at town level, 2013-2018 and 2022
表 1 2013－2022年北京市布鲁氏菌病报告病例数及发病率变化情况
Table 1. Reported cases and incidence of brucellosis in Beijing from 2013 to 2022
年份 病例数 发病率 例数 定基比
增长速度
（%）环比
增长速度
（%）率
（/10万）定基比
增长速度
（%）环比
增长速度
（%）2013 85 − − 0.41 − − 2014 144 69.41 69.41 0.68 66.07 65.75 2015 281 230.59 95.14 1.31 218.54 91.80 2016 192 125.88 −31.67 0.88 115.76 −32.27 2017 153 80.00 −20.31 0.70 71.73 −20.40 2018 123 44.71 −19.61 0.57 38.20 −19.53 2019 86 1.18 −30.08 0.40 −2.63 −29.54 2020 50 −41.18 −41.86 0.23 −43.37 −41.83 2021 83 −2.35 66.00 0.38 −7.54 63.26 2022 110 29.41 32.53 0.50 22.56 32.55 合计 1307 − − − − − 注：−. 合计数不计算增长速度 
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表 2 2013－2022年北京市布鲁氏菌病病例人群分布情况
Table 2. Population distributions of brucellosis in Beijing from 2013 to 2022
分类 2013年 2014年 2015年 2016年 2017年 2018年 2019年 2020年 2021年 2022年 合计 病例数(例) 发病率(/10万) 病例数(例) 发病率(/10万) 病例数(例) 发病率(/10万) 病例数(例) 发病率(/10万) 病例数(例) 发病率(/10万) 病例数(例) 发病率(/10万) 病例数(例) 发病率(/10万) 病例数(例) 发病率(/10万) 病例数(例) 发病率(/10万) 病例数(例) 发病率(/10万) 病例数(例) 发病率(/10万) 性别 男性 67 0.63 116 1.06 227 2.09 148 1.33 124 1.11 88 0.79 64 0.58 38 0.35 67 0.60 83 0.74 1022 0.93 女性 18 0.18 28 0.27 54 0.51 44 0.42 29 0.27 35 0.33 22 0.21 12 0.11 16 0.15 27 0.25 285 0.27 年龄组(岁) 0～ 1 0.04 2 0.07 6 0.21 1 0.03 1 0.03 3 0.09 1 0.04 1 0.04 1 0.03 3 0.09 20 0.07 20～ 19 0.21 22 0.24 50 0.54 36 0.39 27 0.30 20 0.22 16 0.19 3 0.04 8 0.11 20 0.26 221 0.26 40～ 50 0.79 95 1.48 173 2.64 105 1.62 97 1.52 61 0.97 37 0.55 19 0.27 40 0.58 45 0.68 722 1.10 60～ 15 0.64 25 1.04 51 2.08 49 1.85 28 1.04 37 1.32 32 1.01 27 0.84 34 0.92 41 1.09 339 1.16 80～ 0 0.00 0 0.00 1 0.27 1 0.24 0 0.00 2 0.44 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 1 0.16 5 0.11
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表 3 2013－2022年北京市各乡镇街道布鲁氏菌病发病率空间自相关分析
Table 3. Spatial autocorrelation analyses on incidence of brucellosis in Beijing at town level from 2013 to 2022
年份 莫兰指数 方差 Z值 P值 2013 0.261 <0.001 11.412 <0.001 2014 0.147 <0.001 7.609 <0.001 2015 0.299 <0.001 11.962 <0.001 2016 0.246 <0.001 10.730 <0.001 2017 0.071 <0.001 3.109 0.002 2018 0.123 <0.001 5.107 <0.001 2019 0.002 0.001 0.232 0.817 2020 0.022 0.001 1.117 0.264 2021 0.033 0.001 1.466 0.143 2022 0.116 <0.001 5.358 <0.001
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