2011－2021年湖北省武汉市乙型肝炎流行特征分析及发病预测

王田田; 陈邦华; 吴晓旻; 蔡黎

doi:10.3784/jbjc.202305090208

2011－2021年湖北省武汉市乙型肝炎流行特征分析及发病预测

doi: 10.3784/jbjc.202305090208

王田田^{1, 2,},
陈邦华³,
吴晓旻³,
蔡黎^3, ,

1.
武汉市东西湖区疾病预防控制中心, 湖北武汉 430040
2.
武汉现场流行病学培训项目, 湖北武汉 430024
3.
武汉市疾病预防控制中心, 湖北武汉 430024

基金项目: 湖北省自然科学基金面上项目（No. 2021CFB545）；中国肝炎防治基金会–中国乙肝防控科研基金资助课题（No. YGFK20180065）；武汉市卫生健康委医学科研项目（No. WG19C05）；疫苗与免疫青年人才托举项目（No. CPMAQT_YM0319）

详细信息

作者简介:
王田田，女，重庆市人，硕士，公共卫生医师，主要从事传染病预防与控制工作，Email：wangtiantian27@163.com

通讯作者:
蔡黎，Tel：13971220019，Email：84799760@qq.com

中图分类号: R211; R512.6⁺2
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2023-05-09
- 网络出版日期: 2023-10-16

Epidemiological characteristics and incidence prediction of hepatitis B in Wuhan, Hubei, 2011−2021

Wang Tiantian^{1, 2
,},
Chen Banghua³,
Wu Xiaomin³,
Cai Li^{3
, ,}

1.
Dongxihu District Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Wuhan 430040, Hubei, China
2.
Wuhan Field Epidemiology Training Program, Wuhan 430024, Hubei, China
3.
Wuhan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Wuhan 430024, Hubei, China

Funds: This study was supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Hubei Province (No. 2021CFB545), Chinese Foundation for Hepatitis Prevention and Control (No. YGFK20180065), Medical Research Project of Wuhan Municipal Health Commission (No. WG19C05) and Vaccine and Immune Youth Talent Support Projects (No. CPMAQT_YM0319)

More Information

Corresponding author: Cai Li, Email: 84799760@qq.com

摘要

摘要: 目的分析湖北省武汉市2011—2021年乙型肝炎（乙肝）的流行病学特征，探讨季节性差分自回归滑动平均（SARIMA）模型与长短期记忆神经网络（LSTM）模型在乙肝发病预测中的应用。方法通过描述性流行病学方法分析武汉市2011—2021年乙肝流行特征；建立SARIMA模型和LSTM模型，对武汉市乙肝月报告发病数进行拟合与预测，并评价两种模型的效果。结果 2011—2021年武汉市报告乙肝累计发病数为55 115例，年均报告发病率为47.37/10万；无明显季节性发病高峰；发病年龄主要集中在30～59岁人群，占比为60.90%；发病人群以家务及待业、不详、农民为主；男、女性别比为2.17∶1，男、女性乙肝年均报告发病率分别为62.64/10万、30.99/10万；中心城区年均报告发病率为44.93/10万，低于远城区的50.96/10万。 SARIMA模型、LSTM模型的均方根误差分别为43.24、16.55，平均绝对百分比误差分别为7.60%、3.05%。结论武汉市成年人乙肝防控工作不容忽视，应加强老年人、青年男性等重点人群的乙肝监测、疫苗接种和宣传教育等综合防控工作。建立的LSTM模型拟合和预测效果总体上优于SARIMA模型。
- 乙型肝炎 /
- 流行特征 /
- 季节性差分自回归滑动平均模型 /
- 长短期记忆神经网络模型 /
- 预测
Abstract: Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of hepatitis B in Wuhan from 2011 to 2021 and evaluate the application of SARIMA model and LSTM model in predicting the incidence of hepatitis B. Methods The epidemiological characteristics of hepatitis B in Wuhan from 2011 to 2021 were analyzed by descriptive epidemiological method; season autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model and long short - term memory (LSTM) model were established to fit and predict the monthly reported incidence of hepatitis B in Wuhan. Results A total of 55 115 cases of hepatitis B were reported in Wuhan from 2011 to 2021, the average annual incidence rate was 47.37/100 000. There was no obvious seasonal incidence peak. The cases were mainly people aged 30–59 years old (60.90%). The majority of the cases were the jobless or unemployed, the unspecified and farmers. The men to women ratio of the cases was 2.17∶1, the average annual reported incidence rates in men and women were 62.64/100 000 and 30.99/100 000, respectively. The average annual reported incidence rates in central urban area (44.93/100000) was lower than that in outer urban area (50.96/100000). The root-mean-square-error of the SARIMA model and LSTM model were 43.24 and 16.55, respectively, and the mean absolute percentage error was 7.60% and 3.05%, respectively. Conclusion Close attention still needs to be paid to the prevention and control of hepatitis B in adults in Wuhan, and the comprehensive prevention and control of hepatitis B should be strengthened, including hepatitis B surveillance, vaccination and health education, in the elderly and young men. The LSTM neural network model has better fitting and prediction performance compared with the SARIMA model.
- Hepatitis B /
- Epidemic characteristics /
- Season autoregressive integrated moving average model /
- Long short - term memory model /
- Prediction

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图 1 武汉市2011－2021年乙型肝炎报告病例年龄分布

Figure 1. Age distribution of reported cases of hepatitis B in Wuhan, 2011−2021

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表 1 2011－2021年武汉市乙型肝炎报告发病情况

Table 1. Reported incidence of hepatitis B in Wuhan, 2011−2021

年份	发病数（例）	发病率（/10万）	急性乙型肝炎		慢性乙型肝炎		未分类乙型肝炎
年份	发病数（例）	发病率（/10万）	发病数（例）	发病率（/10万）	发病数（例）	发病率（/10万）	发病数（例）	发病率（/10万）
2011	4 530	46.29	196	2.00	3 977	40.64	357	3.65
2012	4 638	47.13	142	1.44	4 078	41.44	418	4.25
2013	5 400	54.70	138	1.40	4 610	46.70	652	6.60
2014	5 179	51.96	145	1.45	4 861	48.77	173	1.74
2015	5 462	54.63	120	1.20	5 178	51.79	164	1.64
2016	4 924	46.42	117	1.10	4 687	44.18	120	1.13
2017	5 328	49.49	110	1.02	5 109	47.45	109	1.01
2018	4 903	45.01	101	0.93	4 653	42.72	149	1.37
2019	5 411	48.83	105	0.95	5 229	47.19	77	0.69
2020	3 672	32.75	52	0.46	3 501	31.23	119	1.06
2021	5 668	45.98	83	0.67	5 407	43.86	178	1.44
合计	55 115	47.37	1 309	1.13	51 290	44.08	2 516	2.16

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表 2 2011－2021年武汉市乙型肝炎报告病例性别分布

Table 2. Gender distribution of reported cases of hepatitis B in Wuhan, 2011−2021

年份	男性		女性		χ²值	P值
年份	发病数（例）	发病率（/10万）	发病数（例）	发病率（/10万）	χ²值	P值
2011	3 300	65.57	1 230	25.88	831.89	<0.001
2012	3 298	65.04	1 340	28.09	712.21	<0.001
2013	3 761	73.94	1 639	34.25	710.33	<0.001
2014	3 555	69.28	1 624	33.58	611.09	<0.001
2015	3 696	72.21	1 766	36.19	593.45	<0.001
2016	3 328	61.20	1 596	30.87	525.14	<0.001
2017	3 596	65.20	1 732	32.99	564.20	<0.001
2018	3 254	58.51	1 649	30.93	460.19	<0.001
2019	3 630	61.39	1 781	34.46	407.75	<0.001
2020	2 469	41.52	1 203	22.84	297.60	<0.001
2021	3 831	59.84	1 837	31.01	556.38	<0.001
合计	37 718	62.64	17 397	30.99	6 138.29	<0.001

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表 3 两种模型的拟合及预测效果评价

Table 3. Evaluation of fitting and prediction effects of two models

精确度评价	时间	SARIMA模型		LSTM模型
精确度评价	时间	RMSE	MAPE （%）	RMSE	MAPE （%）
拟合效果		43.24	7.60	16.55	3.05
预测效果	2020年1－6月	273.52	283.98	243.83	260.08
	2020年7－12月	65.94	14.56	51.05	8.64
	2021年1－6月	72.43	16.94	66.98	13.79
	2021年7－12月	53.39	9.35	60.05	9.74
注：SARIMA模型. 季节性差分自回归滑动平均模型；LSTM模型. 长短期记忆神经网络模型；RMSE. 均方根误差；MAPE. 平均绝对百分比误差

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