2013－2021年中国40岁及以上居民肺癌死亡趋势分析

裴文辉; 汪娆娆; 王云超; 杨震; 任晓岚; 王新华

doi:10.3784/jbjc.202308150423

2013－2021年中国40岁及以上居民肺癌死亡趋势分析

Analysis on trend of lung cancer death in residents aged ≥40 years in China, 2013–2021

摘要

摘要:
目的了解2013—2021年中国≥40岁居民肺癌死亡趋势，为开展肺癌预防工作提供参考依据。
方法收集《全国疾病监测系统死因监测数据集（2013—2021）》中分年龄段、性别、城乡和地区的肺癌死亡数据和人口资料，计算粗死亡率并用2010年人口普查数据进行标化，通过粗死亡率和标化死亡率描述肺癌的死亡状况，采用Joinpoint回归分析模型分析其变化趋势。
结果 2013—2021年中国≥40岁居民肺癌粗死亡率为91.46/10万，标化死亡率为82.96/10万，肺癌粗死亡率随时间呈上升趋势［平均年度变化百分比（AAPC）=1.46%，P=0.019］。男性肺癌粗死亡率呈上升趋势（AAPC=1.71%，P=0.009）。男性肺癌粗死亡率和标化死亡率均高于女性（P<0.001）。随着年龄增长，肺癌标化死亡率呈上升趋势（AAPC=54.73%，P<0.001），其中40～49岁、50～59岁年龄组居民肺癌粗死亡率随年份增加均呈下降趋势（AAPC=−4.26%，P<0.001；AAPC=−3.44%，P=0.003）。城市居民肺癌标化死亡率呈下降趋势（AAPC=−2.37%，P=0.045），农村居民肺癌粗死亡率呈上升趋势（AAPC=2.32%，P<0.001）。 2013—2021东部、中部和西部地区肺癌死亡率均无明显变化趋势（P>0.05），东部地区肺癌粗死亡率和标化死亡率均高于中部地区，中部地区肺癌粗死亡率和标化死亡率均高于西部地区（χ²=1 380.222，P<0.001；χ²=1 707.541，P<0.001）。
结论 2013—2021年中国≥40岁居民肺癌死亡率将逐年增加。肺癌死亡率存在性别、年龄别、城乡和地区差异。男性、中老年人群、农村和西部地区居民是高危人群，应给予重点关注。

Abstract:
Objective To understand the death trend of lung cancer in Chinese residents aged ≥40 years from 2013 to 2021, and provide reference for the prevention and control of lung cancer.
Methods The mortality data of lung cancer and demographic information by age group, sex, urban/rural area and region were collected from the National Disease Surveillance System Cause of Death Surveillance Dataset (2013−2021), and the crude mortality rate was calculated and standardized mortality rate was calculated by using 2010 population census data, and Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the change trend of lung cancer death.
Results The crude lung cancer mortality rate was 91.46/100 000 in residents aged ≥40 years during 2013−2021, showing an increase trend over time average annual percentage change (AAPC)=1.46%, P=0.019, and the standardized mortality rate was 82.96 per 100000. The crude mortality rate of lung cancer in men showed an increasing trend (AAPC=1.71%, P=0.009). Both the crude and standardized mortality rates of lung cancer were higher in men than in women (P<0.001). The standardized mortality rate of lung cancer showed an increasing trend with age (AAPC=54.73%, P<0.001), and the crude mortality rate of lung cancer in age groups 40–49 years and 50–59 years showed decreasing trends with year (AAPC=−4.26%, P<0.001; AAPC=−3.44%, P=0.003). There was a decreasing trend in the standardized mortality rate of lung cancer in urban residents (AAPC=−2.37%, P=0.045), and an increasing trend in the crude mortality rate of lung cancer in rural residents (AAPC=2.32%, P<0.001). There was no significant change trend in the mortality rate of lung cancer in eastern, central and western regions from 2013 to 2021 (P>0.05). Eastern region had higher crude and standardized lung cancer mortality rates compared with central region, and central region had higher crude and standardized lung cancer mortality rates compared with western region (χ²=1 380.222, P<0.001, χ²=1 707.541, P<0.001).
Conclusion Lung cancer mortality in residents aged ≥40 years in China increased from 2013 to 2021. There were gender, age, urban-rural area and region specific differences in lung cancer mortality rate. Men, middle-aged and elderly people, and residents of rural and western regions are high-risk groups, to whom priority attention should be paid.

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