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摘要:
目的 评估2023年10月在我国（不含香港、澳门特别行政区和台湾地区，下同）发生或者可能由境外输入的突发公共卫生事件风险。 方法 根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息，采用专家会商法，并通过视频会议形式邀请省（自治区、直辖市）疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。 结果 预计2023年10月突发公共卫生事件报告数可能较9月有所上升，以新型冠状病毒感染、猴痘、流行性感冒（流感）、登革热、急性出血性结膜炎、手足口病等传染病类事件为主。 我国境内新型冠状病毒感染疫情处于较低水平，对医疗秩序和社会运行影响较小。 目前我国内地猴痘报告病例数呈下降趋势；男男性行为人群猴痘疫情持续传播风险仍较高，一般人群风险仍较低。 当前流感总体处于较低水平，但流感活动持续上升；预计会出现秋冬季流行高峰，流行强度为季节性水平。 登革热疫情将呈下降趋势，部分地区仍存在发生小规模聚集性疫情、疫情外溢或发生本地疫情的风险。 急性出血性结膜炎疫情可能出现反弹，疫情高发省份仍将集中在气候温暖潮湿的地区，聚集性疫情发生场所仍以学校、工厂等人群聚集场所为主。 手足口病疫情强度可能有所上升，不排除出现优势血清型转变、基因变异及新病原引起重症、死亡增加的可能。 结论 对新型冠状病毒感染予以特别关注，对猴痘予以重点关注，对流感、登革热、急性出血性结膜炎、手足口病予以一般关注。 Abstract:Objective To assess the risk of public health emergencies that may occur or be imported from abroad in China (except Hong Kong and Macao Special Administrative Regions and Taiwan province, the same below) in October 2023. Methods Based on various data and departmental notification information on domestic and foreign public health emergencies reports and surveillance of key infectious diseases, the expert consultation method was used and experts from provincial (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government) centers for disease control and prevention were invited to participate in the assessment by video conference. Results It is predicted that the incidence of public health emergencies in October 2023 would be higher than that in September 2023. The main public health emergencies would be infectious diseases such as COVID-19, Mpox, influenza, dengue fever, acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis and hand-foot-mouth disease. The national epidemic of COVID-19 in China would still be at a low level, with less impact on medical order and social operation. Now, the number of reported Mpox cases in Chinese mainland shows a downward trend. Among men who have sex with men (MSM), the risk of sustained transmission of Mpox remains higher and a lower risk in the general population. At present, the influenza is generally at a low level, but the influenza activity is rising. Influenza is expected to reach its peak in autumn and winter, and the epidemic intensity is seasonal. Dengue fever epidemic will show a downward trend. Dengue fever still has the risk of small-scale clustered epidemic, epidemic spillover or local epidemic in some areas. Acute conjunctivitis epidemic may rebound, some provinces with high epidemic incidence will still be concentrated in warm climate areas and the places where clustered epidemics occur are still mainly crowded places such as schools and factories, etc. The epidemic intensity of hand-foot-mouth disease may increase, which does not rule out the possibility of dominant serum changes, genetic variation and serious condition, death caused by new pathogens. Conclusion Special attention should be paid to COVID-19, close attention should be paid to Mpox, and general attention should be paid to influenza, dengue fever, cute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis and hand-foot-mouth disease. -
Key words:
- Public health emergency /
- Communicable disease outbreak /
- Risk assessment
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[1] 李蔓兮, 严明明, 冯晔囡, 等. 2023年8月中国需关注的突发公共卫生事件风险评估[J]. 疾病监测,2023,38(8):897–900. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202308250434.Li MX, Yan MM, Feng YN, et al. Risk assessment of public health emergencies concerned in China, September 2023[J]. Dis Surveill, 2023, 38(8): 897–900. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202308250434. [2] 涂文校, 马宁, 黄晓霞, 等. 2019年10月中国大陆需关注的突发公共卫生事件风险评估[J]. 疾病监测,2019,34(10):872–876. DOI:10.3784/j.issn.1003−9961.2019.10.004.Tu WX, Ma N, Huang XX, et al. Risk assessment of public health emergencies concerned in the mainland of China, October 2019[J]. Dis Surveill, 2019, 34(10): 872–876. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003− 9961.2019.10.004. -
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