2013-2022 年青海省西宁市手足口病季节性特征分析

Seasonal characteristics of hand, foot and mouth disease in Xining, Qinghai, 2013−2022

  • 摘要:
    目的 探讨2013—2022年青海省西宁市手足口病季节性特征,为手足口病的预警和防控工作提供科学依据。
    方法 收集整理从中国疾病预防控制信息系统中导出的2013—2022年青海省西宁市手足口病的月病例信息,分别采用季节指数法、集中度法和圆形分布法对手足口病的季节性特征进行系统性分析。
    结果  2013—2022年西宁市累计报告10 228 例手足口病病例,年均发病率为 43.50/10 万。 2013—2022年手足口病发病的集中度M值合为0.57,显示其发病有较强的季节性,季节指数法分析结果显示每年的5-8月是发病的流行期。 圆形分析结果显示,r = 0.62,\bar \alpha =187.38°(Z=3 976.224>Z0.05P<0.001),流行高峰日为 7月8日,发病高峰期为 5 月 13 日至9月3日。 集中度法所得M值和圆形分布法所得r值之间呈现高度相关性(Pearson系数为1.000,P<0.001)。
    结论  2013—2022年西宁市手足口病发病存在较强的季节性特征,每年的5—8月是发病的高峰期,应在手足口病流行的高峰期前实行科学的防控措施,有效降低发病率及缩短流行期。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To understand the seasonal characteristics of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in Xining of Qinghai province from 2013 to 2022, and provide evidence for the prevention, control, and early warning of HFMD.
    Methods The monthly case information of HFMD in Xining from 2013 to 2022 were collected from the China Disease Prevention and Control Information System for a systematically analysis with seasonal index, concentration method, and circular distribution method.
    Results A total of 10 228 HFMD cases were reported in Xining from 2013 to 2022, with an average annual incidence rate of 43.50/100 000. The annual concentration of HFMD from 2013 to 2022 was 0.57, indicating a strong seasonality. The analysis results of the seasonal index method showed that the incidence of HFMD was high during May-August. The circular analysis results showed that r was 0.62 and \bar \alpha was 187.38°(Z=3 976.224>Z0.05, P<0.001), the incidence peak of HFMD was on 8th July, and the high incidence period was from 13th May to 3rd September. There was a high correlation between the M value by the concentration method and the r value by the circular distribution method with a Pearson coefficient of 1.000 (P<0.001).
    Conclusion The incidence of HFMD had strong seasonal characteristics in Xining from 2013 to 2022, with the high incidence between May and August each year. It is necessary to take appropriate prevention and control measures before the high incidence period of HFMD to effectively reduce the incidence and spread of HFMD.

     

/

返回文章
返回