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2004－2021年中国胰腺癌死亡趋势分析及预测

Analysis on incidence trend of pancreatic cancer death from 2004 to 2021 and its future trend in China

    摘要
  • 摘要:
    目的 分析2004—2021年中国胰腺癌死亡变化趋势并进行预测，为采取有效措施预防和控制胰腺癌提供流行病学依据。
    方法 从中国死因监测数据集（2004—2021）选取胰腺癌死亡数据，分别计算不同年份胰腺癌死亡率、标化死亡率，采用Joinpoint 4.9.1.0软件计算标化死亡率年度变化百分比（APC）和平均年度变化百分比（AAPC）。 构建时间序列分析模型，筛选最佳模型并预测中国未来10年胰腺癌死亡率。
    结果 2004—2021年中国胰腺癌粗死亡率整体呈现上升趋势（AAPC=2.39%，P<0.05），随年龄的增长而升高，男性死亡率（2.91/10万～7.46/10万）高于女性（2.22/10万～5.67/10万），城市死亡率（4.28/10万～7.36/10万）高于农村（1.64/10万～6.17/10万），东部地区死亡率最高（3.82/10万～7.93/10万），西部死亡率最低（1.51/10万～5.06/10万）。 2004—2021年中国胰腺癌标化死亡率总体呈现波动增长趋势（AAPC=2.39%，P<0.05），男性、女性、农村标化死亡趋势和总体一致，东（AAPC=0.95%，P<0.05）、中（AAPC=3.86%，P<0.05）、西部地区（AAPC=3.97%，P<0.05）均呈逐年增长趋势。 差分自回归移动平均模型时间序列模型预测中国胰腺癌未来10年粗死亡率和标化死亡率均将持续上升。
    结论 2004—2021年中国胰腺癌死亡率存在年龄、性别、城乡和地区差异，老年和男性是重点防控人群，同时东部地区发达城市更应加强胰腺癌预防控制。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To analyze the incidence trend of pancreatic cancer death from 2004 to 2021 and its future trend in China, and provide epidemiological evidence for the effective prevention and control of pancreatic cancer.
    Methods The incidence data of pancreatic cancer death in China during 2004−2021 were selected from the China Death Cause Monitoring Dataset, and the mortality rate and standardized mortality rate of pancreatic cancer in different years were calculated respectively. The annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percentage change (AAPC) of the standardized mortality rate were calculated by using software Joinpoint 4.9.1.0. Time series analysis model was used to screen the best model and predict the mortality of pancreatic cancer in next decade in China.
    Results From 2004 to 2021, the crude mortality rate of pancreatic cancer showed an overall upward trend (AAPC=2.39%, P<0.050) and increased with age in China. The mortality rate in men (2.91/100000−7.46/100000) was higher than that in women (2.22/100000−5.67/100000), the mortality rate in urban area (4.28/100000−7.36/100000) was higher than that in rural area (1.64/100000−6.17/100000), the mortality rate in eastern region was highest (3.82/100000−7.93/100000), and the mortality rate in western region was lowest (1.51/100000−5.06/100000). From 2004 to 2021, the standardized mortality of pancreatic cancer in China showed a fluctuating growth trend (AAPC=2.39%, P<0.05). The standardized mortality trends in men, women and rural area were consistent with the overall trend. The annual standardized mortality rate showed increasing trend in eastern region (AAPC=0.95%, P<0.05), in central region (AAPC=3.86%, P<0.05) and in western region (AAPC=3.97%, P<0.05). Autoregressive integratedmoving average model time series model prediction indicated that the crude mortality rate and standardized mortality rate of pancreatic cancer would continue to increase in next decade in China.
    Conclusion From 2004 to 2021, there were age, gender, urban and rural and region specific differences in the mortality of pancreatic cancer in China. The elderly and men were the key populations in pancreatic cancer prevention and control. It is necessary to strengthen the prevention and control of pancreatic cancer in the developed urban areas in the eastern region of China.

     

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