2011-2022年四川省泸州市≥50岁新报告HIV/AIDS病例时空特征分析

Spatiotemporal distribution of newly reported HIV/AIDS cases aged ≥50 years in Luzhou, Sichuan, 2011−2022

  • 摘要:
    目的 分析2011—2022年四川省泸州市≥50岁新报告HIV/AIDS病例的时空分布特征,识别新报告HIV/AIDS病例的高风险聚集区域,为制定HIV/AIDS防控策略和优化卫生资源提供参考依据。
    方法 通过中国疾病预防控制信息系统收集2011—2022年泸州市≥50岁新报告HIV/AIDS病例资料进行描述性分析,利用GeoDa软件进行空间自相关分析,利用SaTScan 10.1.2软件进行时空扫描分析。
    结果 2011—2022年泸州市≥50岁新报告HIV/AIDS病例共10 362例,新报告HIV/AIDS感染率总体呈增长趋势,由2011年的10.00/10万,最高上升至2019年的151.42/10万。 空间自相关分析显示,除2011—2012年,其他各年份新报告HIV/AIDS病例均存在明显的空间正相关(Moran's I>0,P<0.001),在区域范围内呈现聚集性分布。 病例“高−高”聚集区随时间推移由北部地区向中东部地区转移。 时空扫描分析共探测出2个聚集区域,在时间和空间上具有一定的聚集性。
    结论 泸州市HIV/AIDS在空间上具有地域差异性且存在聚集性,因此应根据各乡镇/街道不同的时空特征,因地制宜地制定HIV/AIDS的防控策略及优化资源配置,以减少老年HIV/AIDS新发病例的快速增长。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To understand the spatiotemporal distribution of newly reported HIV/AIDS cases aged ≥50 years in Luzhou, Sichuan province, from 2011–2022, identify high-risk clustering areas of newly reported HIV/AIDS cases and provide a reference basis for the development of HIV/AIDS prevention and control strategies and the optimization of health resources.
    Methods The data of newly reported HIV/AIDS cases aged ≥50 years in Luzhou from 2011 to 2022 were collected through the China Disease Control and Prevention Information System for descriptive analysis, spatial autocorrelation analysis using software GeoDa and spatiotemporal scanning analysis using software SaTScan 10.1.2.
    Results A total of 10 362 HIV/AIDS cases ≥50 years were newly reported in Luzhou from 2011 to 2022, and the newly reported HIV/AIDS infection rate showed an overall increasing trend, from 10.00/100 000 in 2011 to 151.42/100 000 in 2019. Spatial autocorrelation analyses showed a significant positive spatial correlation (Moran's I>0, P<0.001) for the newly reported HIV/AIDS cases in all years except 2011–2012, showing a clustering distribution in the area. The “high-high” clustering area of the cases shifted over time from the northern area to the central-eastern area. Spatiotemporal scanning analyses detected 2 clustering areas.
    Conclusion The prevalence of HIV/AIDS infection varied in different areas of Luzhou and showed spatial clustering, so the prevention and control of HIV/AIDS should be based on the different spatiotemporal characteristics of the townships/streets, and it is necessary to improve the HIV/AIDS prevention and control strategies and the optimize the allocation of resources according to the local conditions in order to reduce the rapid increase of new cases of HIV/AIDS in the elderly.

     

/

返回文章
返回