2010-2023年新疆维吾尔自治区阿克苏地区人间布鲁氏菌病流行特征及空间分布分析

Epidemiological characteristics and spatial distribution of human brucellosis in Aksu, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, 2010−2023

  • 摘要:
    目的 研究2010—2023年新疆维吾尔自治区阿克苏地区人群布鲁氏菌病(布病)流行特征和时空分布特点,为阿克苏地区制定和调整布病防控措施提供依据。
    方法 应用R 4.2.1软件对阿克苏地区2010—2023年人间布病流行特征进行描述性流行病学分析,应用ArcGIS 10.7软件和SaTScan 10.1.2软件对布病发病率进行空间自相关分析和时空聚集性分析。
    结果  2010—2023年阿克苏地区报告6830例本地布病病例,年平均发病率为20.90/10万,发病率呈现先上升后下降再上升的趋势,2014年达到发病高峰后逐渐下降,2020—2023年发病呈上升趋势; 5—9月为报告病例高峰;男性发病率高于女性(χ2=1193.700P<0.001);60~79岁组发病率最高(χ2=1887.700P<0.001);职业以农牧民(81.26%)为主;2010—2013年和2021—2022年阿克苏地区布病发病率呈现空间聚类分布(全局 Moran′s I值均<0,P<0.05);局部空间自相关分析结果显示,有4个低–低聚集区(温宿县和沙雅县、库车市、新和县)和2个低–高离散区(阿克苏市、乌什县)。 时空聚集性分析发现,一级、二级聚集区分布在拜城县和温宿县、乌什县、柯坪县。
    结论 2010—2023年阿克苏地区人间布病病例数及发病率逐年波动增加,布病发病率存在时空聚集性和季节性,应加强畜牧业发达、布病高发地区的畜间和人间布病病例监测,落实综合防控措施,密切关注人间布病流行趋势变化情况。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To understand the epidemiological characteristics and spatiotemporal distribution of human brucellosis in Aksu, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, in recent years, and provide evidence for the development and improvement of human brucellosis prevention and control measures in Aksu.
    Methods The descriptive epidemiological analysis on the epidemiological characteristics of human brucellosis in Aksu from 2010 to 2023 was conducted by using software R 4.2.1. The Spatial autocorrelation analysis and spatiotemporal clustering analysis on the incidence rate of human brucellosis were performed by using software ArcGIS 10.7 and SaTScan 10.1.
    Results From 2010 to 2023, a total of 6830 cases of locally transmitted human brucellosis were reported in Aksu, with an average annual incidence rate of 20.90/100 000. The incidence rate showed increase firstly, then decrease, and increase again, peaking in 2014 and gradually decreased afterwards. However, there was an upward trend in the incidence from 2020 to 2023. The annual incidence peak was during May - September. The incidence rate was higher in men than in women (χ2=1193.700, P<0.001). The highest incidence rate was observed in age group 60–79 years (χ2=1887.700, P<0.001). The majority of the cases were farmers and herdsmen (81.26%). Spatial clustering of brucellosis incidence was observed in Aksu from 2010 to 2013 and from 2021 to 2022 (global Moran´s I value <0, P<0.05). Local spatial autocorrelation analysis revealed four low-low clustering areas (Wensu, Shaya, Kuqa, and Xinhe) and two low-high outlier areas (Aksu and Wushi). Spatiotemporal clustering analysis identified primary and secondary clustering areas distributed in Baicheng, Wensu, Wushi, and Keping.
    Conclusion The case count and incidence rate of human brucellosis in Aksu fluctuated and increased year by year, with spatiotemporal clustering and seasonal patterns. Enhanced surveillance for both animal and human brucellosis should be implemented in areas with developed livestock industry and high incidence rates of the disease. Comprehensive prevention and control measures should be implemented, and close attention should be paid to changes in the incidence trend of human brucellosis.

     

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