Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and predict the incidence trend of acute hepatitis B in Wuhan, Hubei province, from 2005 to 2023, and provide reference for the prevention and control strategies of acute hepatitis B.

Methods Descriptive epidemiological methods were used to analyze the epidemiological characteristics of acute hepatitis B in Wuhan, and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) model were established with the incidence data of acute hepatitis B from 2005 to 2021 as observed values, and the incidence data from 2022 and 2023 as test values to compared the prediction accuracy of the two models.

Results A total of 3 991 cases of acute hepatitis B were reported in Wuhan from 2005 to 2023, the average annual incidence rate was 2.10/100 000. The incidence was higher in men than in women. There was no obvious seasonal incidence peak. The average annual incidence rate ranged from 1.21/100 000 to 3.37/100 000 in different districts. The cases were mainly the unemployed (782 cases,19.59%) and farmers (697 cases,17.46%). The incidence rates in all age groups were higher than the average level during 2005−2010, and the incidence rate was highest in age group 20−<25 years ( 9.01/100 000). The incidence rates in all age groups were slightly lower than the average level during 2011−2016. The incidence rates in all age groups were significantly lower than the average level during 2017−2023. The incidence rate was lowest in age group 0−<5 years (0.03/100 000). Most cases occurred in age group 25−<65 years (75.04%). The root mean square error of ARIMA model and BSTS model were 3.67 and 8.86, respectively, and the mean absolute percentage error was 49.63% and 75.17 %, respectively. The predicted value of the incidence of acute hepatitis B from January to June 2024 based on BSTS model were compared with the actual value, the root mean square error was 3.32, and the mean absolute percentage error was 18.61%.

Conclusion The incidence of acute hepatitis B showed a downward trend in Wuhan from 2005 to 2023. In recent years, the incidence remained at low levels in all age groups, especially in age group 0−<5 years. The prevention and control of acute hepatitis B in key groups should be strengthened. BSTS model has better fitting and prediction performance compared with ARIMA model.