2004-2023年内蒙古自治区人间布鲁氏菌病时空分布特征分析

Spatiotemporal distribution of human brucellosis in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, 2004−2023

  • 摘要:
    目的  调查2004—2023年内蒙古自治区(内蒙古)人间布鲁氏菌病(布病)流行趋势及时空分布特征,为制定有针对性的监测、防控策略提供科学参考。
    方法 从国家传染病信息报告系统下载内蒙古2004—2023年人间布病的病例数和发病率,采用Excel 2021和SaTScan 10.1软件分析内蒙古人间布病的流行趋势及时空变化特征。
    结果 2004—2023年内蒙古共计报告人间布病249 407例,年均报告病例12 470例,年均发病率为48.77/10万,发病率为18.27/10万~88.62/10万。 发病率从2004年的18.27/10万(4 356例)增加至2023年的68.34/10万(16 409例),表明内蒙古人间布病疫情持续加重。 2004—2023年东部区5盟(市)报告病例数最多,占比64.49%(160 848例)。 2004—2023年内蒙古人间布病的县域流行特征发生了明显的变化,不仅报告病例旗(县/区)逐年增加,而且发病率持续恶化。 报告病例旗(县/区)从2004年的57个扩散至2021年的105个,2004年发病率高于50.00/10万的县数为16个,增加至2021年的68个,表明内蒙古人间布病疫情持续扩散、逐年恶化。 时空聚集性分析显示,2004—2023年内蒙古105个旗(县/区)共计发现5个高风险聚集区,共涉及旗(县/区)57个,54.28%的县域为高风险聚集区。 随着疫情的逐步演化,高风险区域由东部盟市转换为西部地区。
    结论 内蒙古人间布病疫情持续扩散、恶化,高风险区域呈时空变化特征,应采取措施遏制传播。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To understand the epidemiological characteristics and spatiotemporal distribution of human brucellosis in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region(Inner Mongolia) from 2004 to 2023, and provide reference the development of targeted surveillance and prevention strategies.
    Methods The incidence data of human brucellosis in Inner Mongolia from 2004 to 2023 were collected from China’s National Notifiable Disease Reporting System for a statistical analysis with software Excel 2021, and SaTScan 10.1.
    Results From 2004 to 2023, a total of 249 407 cases of human brucellosis were reported in Inner Mongolia, with an annual average of 12 470 cases. The annual incidence rate varied from 18.27/100000 to 88.62/100000, with average annual incidence rate of 48.77/100000. The incidence rate increased from 18.27/100000 in 2004 (4 356 cases) to 68.34/100000 in 2023 (16 409 cases), indicating a serious epidemic situation of human brucellosis. From 2004 to 2023, 5 leagues (prefecture) in eastern Inner Mongolia reported the highest case count, accounting for 64.49% of the total (160 848 cases). The epidemiological characteristics at the county level showed significant changes during the period from 2004 to 2023, with both the number of affected counties and the incidence rates increasing. The number of banners (counties/districts) reporting cases increased from 57 in 2004 to 105 in 2021, and the number of counties with incidence rate higher than 50.00/100000 in 2004 increased from 16 to 68 in 2021, indicating a serious epidemic situation of human brucellosis in Inner Mongolia year by year. The analysis on spatiotemporal clustering showed that a total of 5 high-risk clustering areas were detected in 105 banners (county/district) in Inner Mongolia from 2004 to 2023, in which 57 (54.28%) were high-risk clustering areas, with the high-risk areas shifting from eastern to western regions.
    Conclusion The incidence of human brucellosis in Inner Mongolia showed an increasing trend, and the spatiotemporal distribution of high-risk areas showed changes. Targeted intervention strategies should be taken to control the further spread of human brucellosis.

     

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