Objective To describe the global burden of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in the world, and provide evidence for the prevention and treatment of COPD.

Methods Based on global burden of disease (GBD) 2021 data, the years of life lost (YLL) rate attributed to non-optimal temperature for COPD in three groups of countries at different isotherms (China and The United States of America, South Africa and Australia, Iraq and Portugal) from 1990 to 2021 were described, and the future trends in these six countries were compared. Based on the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model, the trends of YLL rates in the six countries from 2022 to 2036 were predicted. By using data from 21 GBD regions, the relationship between the socio-demographic index (SDI) and YLL rates was analyzed with restricted cubic splines and quantile regression model.

Results The age-standardized YLL rates of COPD attributable to non-optimal temperature in China, The United States of America, Australia, Iraq, Portugal and South Africa in 202 were 124.91/100000, 63.57/100000, 31.94/100000, 31.38/100000, 35.3/100000, and 72.31/100000, respectively. Low temperature had greater impact on COPD burden. Men had higher YLL rate compared with women in all six countries. It is predicted that the age standardized YLL rates from 2022 to 2036 would show upward trends in Australia, Portugal and South Africa and downward trends in other countries. The areas with higher YLL rates attributable to non-optimal temperature were mainly in regions with SDI values between 0.39 and 0.70. The quantile regression fitted with YLL rates and SDI was significant at P₂₅ and P₇₅.

Conclusion In COPD burden attributable to non-optimal temperature, low temperature caused-burden had higher proportion. The burden were influenced by gender and SDI. In 2022−2036, the YLL rates of COPD attributable to non-optimal temperature would decrease in all other countries except Australia, Portugal and South Africa.